IDO

Sorry on behalf of "Whitefox"; in fact 1.5% of UK pop. I am sure you know what he meant!

There is nothing forecast, apart from much of the same for the next two weeks, with obvious exception to the storm tomorrow.; there will be strong winds (possibly worse as the forecast gets hi-res), much rain and snow showers (favoured parts of Scotland), on the back end of the low. Quite seasonal, of late, for Scotland. I was referring to the majority of the UK; it will be windy tomorrow with rain, but more like Autumn than Winter weather. Rather bland weather to follow that, till the proposed change, mid month.

Nothing of interest or consequence for the next two weeks according to GFS. Its 06z run persists with the current cycle of HP influenced by zonal, but with a milder flow. Uninspiring and arguably the worse run for a long time, bearing in mind the PV split. Any change appears to have been deferred till after mid Jan, possibly due to the Jetstream being revved up by two arms feeding off the US Eastern coast, powering the omnipresent west-east flow for the medium term. http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120102;time=06;ext=384;file=npsjet2;sess=623d95b1d41b945ebec13b0aa054639a;

I see what is being said. Changes are afoot to a trend to colder weather (in the NH) but the models will not show consistency until the split of the PV is more defined, ie a higher resolution. The op run from GFS is therefore one of several possibilities and is possibly a default to the current pattern, as this is more sensible at the moment, opposed to modelling a favourable ridge (less confidence). Basically FI at this time is even less reliable than normal. Just one more thing: I am assuming this change is due to the strat warming splitting the PV? This being the only current synoptics that has a chance of getting us out of this zonal pattern. To me the models have the split in the wrong place (consistently) and even if this has knock on effects downstream, is this enough to override the strong West to East flow? I was looking at the Canadian model (out to 372 as well) and they also try to build heights, but by the end of the run the Atlantic runs over the two attempts and we are back to square one. To me it appears, that although we are in a better position than say, two weeks ago, we are still in the hands of good fortune; there remains a strong probability that the UK will miss out on the better synoptics (from a cold perspective) from this strat warming event. This, may therefore be what the computer models are picking up in the FI output?

Thanks. Its quite unhelpful that GFS has the op run as a mild outlier >75% of the time (last five days). I just keep thinking they must be onto something; why would you continue to suggest mild when cold is more likely? It is quite disconcerting for their commercial clients and doesn't sit well for their forecasting ability (assuming they are wrong)!

Hi I am a relative newbie and have been looking at the models and just not seeing what other members have been seeing over the last couple of days. All I see is zonal, brief topplers but with a raging jetstream pushing through west to east. Nominal cold for the south and cool/cold more often in the north. Can anyone show me on GFS where the change to cold is happening mid-Jan? Thanks.

You mean "A butterfly flaps its wings in...". I'm not so sure; the bigger picture sometimes muddies the waters. Let the bigger picture sort itself out and the hints will then show up in FI within the North Atlantic framework. I am not going to worry about variables in the Pacific & whether they may or may not eventually influence our weather. The changes have been mentioned for several weeks now. First it was a SSW & nothing came of that. Then it was stratospheric warming; way into FI this has had no effect on Europe (will do in Feb..?). Now it is the PV splitting; GFS has this, late in FI, but as I have been warned many times before, this is FI! It also looks to separate in the wrong place, and for how long (as forecasts for NAO start heading positive again late in FI)? I actually am very hopeful of a cold Feb (second week onwards probably){*1}, but am not buying this much published forecast change for mid-Jan. Have not for weeks. Now the GFS op is trending towards average, this is even less likely. However if it does materialize, I congratulate you in advance. A Happy (Wintry) New Year to all. {*1}Next wave of Strat Warming on top of current warming should do the trick for us.

GFS back on course again for HP dominated setup till end FI, ad infinitum. 06z, as suspected, false dawn. Average temps with any cool zonal even missing Scotland, apart for a 48 hour period. GFS as of 16th Jan still has the cold pool of air over our part of the NH and this appears to be even more entrenched. Any PV split doesn't look like it will have short term effects for the UK. As poor as we have seen and in line with all the pro-forecasters ie "no cold is expected in January". I was surprised when the 06z run was treated as the harbinger of winter by some members as it was late in FI and was a one off (at the time, and remains so). This run may turn out to be a mild outlier but even then the best we can get is the Jetstream on a lower latitude. We need things to change shortly in FI or many amongst us are going to be quashing hopes for early Feb. Interesting Simon Keeling has plumped for the GFS as the likely way forward; he believes such a strong Jetstream will hamper any likely change in patterns. Looking at the Jetstream at the end of the GFS, it looks as strong as it has been all winter and it arcs in from mid (mild) USA. Also excellent post from Daniel Smith: http://ukweather.wor...anuary-outlook/ As poor as most other forecasts.

Watch the 12z GFS; probably be back to zonal. Need 3-4 days of snow charts like that before I give it credence; as snow is hard enough to forecast 48 hours out, let alone two weeks! As many members have been saying, a change due mid-Jan, whether it is sustained (GFS looks like it will default back to tepid HP following 384) or a change for the good we may not know for another week.

Don't shoot the messenger! Looking at the stratospheric temps (at 30hPa) there still remains a cold pool over Europe at the end of the GFS run (Jan 16th). This does suggest little hope of prolonged cold before late Jan. JMA still have cold sea temps, in the North Atlantic, forecast throughout Jan 2012 so even if we get zonal there is little hope of snow for anything but higher ground. Stratospheric warming is forecast but there is no sign of the PV being convincingly effected by it. Unless it splits there is little hope of any decent cold and I believe January will not see us benefiting from this. Although the HP to our south is not officially a Bartlett, its presence has a similar outcome. There is no sign of this going anywhere in the medium term so cool zonal is the best the England can hope for. Although NAO is heading to a weak negative' it seems to indicate a West based outcome meaning HP close to the UK; not very helpful. CFS current temp predictions for the rest of the winter are, on average, mild. They believe this stubborn pattern will reduce our Winter to above average throughout. Despite members insisting a change is on the way there is very little (background noises) to back this up (in the reliable time frame). Of course normal caveats apply. I will be slightly more optimistic by mid Jan looking towards Feb, however as we are starting from such a desperate position (for prolonged cold) even a moderate increase in synoptics will probably be of little substance down the line.

The poop fest that is now the GFS run couldn't get any worse? It has. The 06z is a dogs dinner and a dogs breakfast of a run. We now lose the zonal for most of the run and delve into the depths of a SW HP. Is the PV getting more powerful on this run? We have lost the toppler that ended the last few runs, giving the south nothing of consequence in the medium term. It ends on the 15th; are we captivated by its resemblance to the HP that ruined November? We are certainly not entranced by its potential from that snapshot; the second half of January looks doomed to average indifference.

The GFS has a PM excursion hitting south of the Midlands on the 3rd Jan and that is it to the end of the run, the 14th. Of course if you are in Aberdeenshire you may get another 48-72 hours of PM. For the height of the winter to say this is "cold" is very annoying, as it clearly isn't. Of course GFS may be barking up the wrong tree but I am commenting on the output, not what could be. Basically from the 4th Jan HP takes over for the south. There are no frosts forecast; we are basically in an average to mild regime. A lot like November. No snow , two frosts, three hours of wet snow; that is my story, so I don't want to here that it hasn't been a bad winter, because that sounds as crass as it is.

Just seen Simon Keeling's forecast for January 2012. His commercial forecast suggests the first half will be above average (+2) whilst the second half (England) will return to average (-2 to 0 compared average). However he continues with the zonal theme through to the end of the month. His quote is: "What I can't take is the nonsense about severe weather, widespread blizzards, and worse than 2010/11 conditions. THIS IS NOT HOW IT IS GOING TO BE AND IT IS NOT WHAT I AM SAYING. " He reiterates this several times and it is apparent that prolonged cold will not be a likely candidate in January. Many of the pro forecasters have now changed their outlook for this winter (eg: buzz on Two has now gone for above average temps); they will not keep to their early forecasts if they are wrong, so commenting on them as if they still apply is a bit pointless. Things have changed to an entrenched zonal pattern and any flip is definitely an outside bet in the next 3-4 weeks. In fact, this winter looks like we are heading back to the blink and you will miss it winters of the past and last year may never happen again for decades into our future. This year we see the true colours of British winters. Welcome home!

We will disagree but all I see is a West to East movement with the Jetstream looking very strong pushing that Low away and the following output would have us influenced by the SW HP, much like the GFS, till another Low moves in. As I said slightly out of sync, but much of the same with no sign of that raging jetstream slowing the procession of LP's cutting through Northern Britain followed by brief HP influence.

That is a nice snapshot and taken out of context looks promising. But now roll on the ECM to the 7th Jan; it now mirrors the GFS (zonal), although it is slightly out of sync and has the Jetstream slightly more favourable. Nothing from the snapshot on Jan 7th promises anything in the short term apart from the continuum of average UK winter weather.

Depends where you are. Looking at the 2m temps from Birmingham south, GFS (till 13th Jan) has no frosts and max temps sometimes around 11c; lowest max around 4c and that was during the night on two occasions! In January that sounds mild. Of course Aberdeenshire is a different story, but isn't that always?

I thought it would be another day or so before ECM came back on board with GFS but it does now look like both are modelling zonality all the way. Very little snow, some for the heights of Scotland but all transitional. With the SSW a misnomer, stratospheric warming never looking like penetrating down to an influential level, it has always been hope rather than synoptics that have driven the sighting of cold. However this only takes us to mid-January and there are signs (AO, strat. warming again) of a better pattern, and it will not take much to favour us with cold zonality. However getting a prolonged cold spell with that raging Jetstream is not going to be easy; but there are signs we will at least get a shot. "Light thinks it travels faster than anything but it is wrong. No matter how fast light travels, it finds darkness has always got there first, and is waiting for it."

The Met Office are playing it safe, however they are probably close to the mark as there is little sign of change. The AO isn't forecast to go neutral/negative till around Jan 11th, so assuming the ENS are correct, that is when a change maybe on the cards to a more stable lasting cold spell. The ECM have a colder zonal pattern to the GFS's milder zonal and the former is basing that on height rises around North America. Too early to say who is right, but the ECM forecast, if correct, is no panacea to prolonged cold, although it does give us a better starting position if other synoptics fall in the right place and obviously a few interesting days. The next 48 hours should answer our questions, so until then we can only align to one of the models and wait... "If you spend your whole life waiting for a storm, you'll never enjoy the sunshine"

We have the mix of warm air and cold air in the Jetstream and despite the promise of any other changes in the synoptics, this is the strongest variable. With its West to East track and its position to our North the best we will get is temporary cold (viz-a-viz GFS). Lets not right off January for a few days; as ECM starts to enter the FI of the recent GFS output, we need to see if they continue with the shoots of change or will they keep pushing the better signs to the end of their run. It does not look like stratospheric warming will be any use in the next ten days (at least) and the SSW is no longer a variable, so if ECM is wrong with the PV, then late January will be our next shot at cold. "Things are only as good or as bad as you make them seem"

Well the latest GFS is an outlier but can anyone explain why GFS continue to use their mildest run please? The ensembles are trending down in temperature so not all bad and if the outlook was a jigsaw puzzle, we would have the corners sorted; still some work to be done but the pieces should start showing the picture soon; a seasonal offering I proffer. "When I no longer thrill to the first snow of the season, I'll know I'm growing old."

I am akin to the neutron in an atom, though I necessarily end up as a electron, bringing balance to the protons. For the casual visitor I try to balance the pro-cold bias with the alternative, but not to the detriment of the facts; though I do add hyperbole. My Doctor says the cause was a bad experience in my early days on this forum; I was very naive, and consumed all the member's outpourings of snowmageddon and the return of the Ice Age...I don't want others to go through the turmoil I experienced. And thank you for comparing me with the great minds of "Ian Brown or Gavin D", but I am not worthy to even live in their shadows. Back to the models: It looks like ECM are flirting with more of a cold setup; but didn't GFS try this a few days ago and has since given it the cold shoulder . Its a shame we cannot see why one model will dismiss this outcome and the other is parading it. For some reason the ECM believes the strong Jetstream will be dampened (giving cold zonality at the worst), whereas GFS believes the mixing of the streams, one cold, one mild, will ramp up the Jetstream, and rollover anything in its path. I favour the latter as it remains the most likely, though with the addendum: that ECM could show us a way to transitional cold before the Atlantic resets. "The essence of knowledge is, having it, to apply it; not having it, to confess your ignorance". I confess...

If this winter had a metaphor it would be that it reminded me of Schrodinger's cat. Although all that quantum gobbly goop says otherwise, the cat is definitely dead. The current (GFS) output is benign and the usual rhetoric really doesn't do it justice. "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe"

"Deletion of outlier data is a controversial practice frowned on by many scientists and science instructors; while mathematical criteria provide an objective and quantitative method for data rejection, they do not make the practice more scientifically or methodologically sound, especially in small sets or where a normal distribution cannot be assumed." Just because it is a mild outlier does not negate its value. The fact it has been favoured as the Operational Run is of more interest. As for the "PV Breaking up"; until it does it is maybe prudent to assume status quo till this is confirmed; as such a change, in a major variable, can skew the model, and therefore your expectations. "Reason itself is fallible, and this fallibility must find a place in our logic."

"Two Buzz" update is now confirming many members worries: the forecast has now changed to an average winter with slightly above average temperatures. Nothing in the models in the medium term, very few forecasters predicting cold in January and a very stubborn pattern that does not want to breakdown, does lean towards a frustrating January. This winter is beginning to play like Charlotte Bronte's Jane Eyre, without the happy ending! "In all things it is better to hope than despair".

Latest GFS has sent any hope of prolonged cold packing, no sign of any blocking; in fact it strengthens the Atlantic, sending wave after wave of zonal. Transitional cold for the North but continuing with overall mild to the south. I think if this is the situation on the 11th then we can confirm a Bartlett, and taking the setup then, there is little relief for a change for probably another 7-10 days going forward. ECM seem to have members who believe a change will happen and they keep this at the end of their runs, whilst GFS are more cautious, keeping the default pattern. I think both are correct; the change is on the menu but neither are sure when, with ECM simply more pro-active in its modelling whilst GFS will jump on the bandwagon, if & when the synoptics are more persuasive. "If you add a little to a little, and then do it again, soon that little shall be much."