IDO

US Air Force model: https://afweather.afwa.af.mil/public_images/MEURSFCSNTT048.GIF (Notty...theweatheroutlook, Thanks) NAE: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/03/basis06/ukuk/weas/12020506_0306.gif Both suggest south missing out apart from far south east. May still change.

Liam Dutton's Blog suggests the front is going to grind to a halt in the middle of the UK: http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/snow/494 I suspect that means more potential for the cold to stay in the East, limiting the thaw, or the snow turning to rain. All still up in the air.

GFS cluster at T372. 55% modeling: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/enscluster/2012/01/19/basis00/euro/cslp/12020312_1900_01.gif A picture can say a thousand words. I think the last boat is about to sail and we have missed it big time. There is absolutely nothing cold modeled and despite the comments by some members to be patient, etc, etc, I really do now believe that Feb will be rather mild (like last year) and offer a very boring settled scenario, with all the excitement East and West.

All the models are showing the rest of Jan to be snowless and probably average temp wise for the south. There may be some transitional snow for others but that is the best we can expect. GFS FI takes us into a very poor setup for Feb with mild temps and no snow, even for Scotland. You can see where all the action is: http://nwstatic.co.u...a7a112c012bb93; We have missed it by a quadrant either way. What looks even worse is that pattern looks blocked giving rise to a very static looking Feb where all the action is a thousand miles away either East or West.

The models are now nearly aligned, offering us much of what we have had for the last six weeks but giving us a cooler spin on it. Even late FI has been removed of eye candy and as GFS takes us into Feb...well I dont need to draw pictures. The GFS looks more likely to have modeled this weekend's cold (cool probably, no mild) spell. No surprise as the upstream pattern was coming from N. America and they are a clever bunch. The CFS masterclass has been very consistent bringing in mild temps into the UK around 7th Feb right through to March via an Atlantic HP (not him again) so I might have to admit that this weekend may be our winter. I am away tomorrow so just posting my thoughts on tomorrow's runs: Well I cannot believe it, the models have done a flip flop flip (maybe another flop there) and the ridging is back on. GFS is operated by those US guys who are more interested in who will be the next leader of the Republicans, and they have taken their eye off the ball. I always find ECM have upstream patterns sussed better than other models. Now the question is how long will this cold spell go on for? Oh sorry, two questions, who is Jon Huntsman? CFS have predicted a predominantly mild Feb so (wink wink) we now know its a good time to clean off our ski boots. Looking great. The moral of the story is that our close cousin the ape could have come up with more sense than the last five day's models. “Keep your dreams alive. Understand to achieve anything requires faith and belief in yourself, vision, hard work, determination, and dedication. Remember all things are possible for those who believe.â€

We had one GFS run out of 20 giving a colder outlook but with little potential for snow (12z) and ECM coming up with another outlandish run promising all sorts of cold (12z), when it had been progressively downgrading the cold outbreak. Suddenly with no continuity the majority of posters were saying we were in the fridge, etc, etc. now I have no idea whether ECM is right but surely we needed a day of runs that sustained this pattern before we uncorked the Champagne? Again any viewer looking at this site has possibly been led up the garden path; not by the models but by experienced members! Even though the flat zonal/HP outcome of GFS is the likely outcome I am not going to throw my hat in the ring till next weekend, when I will look out the window and get my own conclusion.

I will post something for Rob. These are the 2m temps in Somerset: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20120115/06/t2mSomerset.png As you can see they go out to the end of the month. They rarely drop below zero and despite the Op run being a cool outlier for the last half of the run the mean is consistent around 4-6c. Not the extreme end of mild but slightly above average. No graphs for Feb yet but the latest Met 30 day forecast suggests average to above average during early Feb (upto 13th); the latter isn't scientific but it makes the point. Around 33% of the max 2m temp's days were double figures according to the 0z run on GFS. So although not mild throughout; as you would expect some cooler interludes, but we get the jist of the perfunctory statement by Rob, that there is very little cold weather for the majority of the UK and it is hard to say when it will end as models don't go out any further than where the mildish weather still predominates.

Just seen Countryfile weather. I assume they use the up to date UKMO run? They have the PM excursion on Friday; that is the same as the GFS, rather than the ECM (Sat). If that is the case I suspect the 12z from UKMO will reflect a less amplified upstream pattern, again hedging back to the GFS. http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120115;time=06;ext=123;file=h500slp;sess=b92929e80e1d3dc5ae0a68e1496e5a37; The mist is clearing.

In this case I disagree; a few days ago ECM went with an amplified pattern over N.America that slowed movement west to east allowing blocking patterns to build near the UK. Its subsequent downgrading is not a toning down to an in between IMO; this is an important variable loaded onto the computer run(s) that meant profound changes downstream. If they were wrong it would be nice to know why they amplified it so much initially. What were the background noises? Another poster (Saint Snow at theweatheroutlook) summed it up better than I can: " My concern is that, with hindsight, ECM has narrowed that gap between the two lows on each of the last few runs. Rather than just 'flipping' to a new pattern, it's evolved it gradually, until it reached a kind of tipping point where the ridging wasn't there at all and the overall effect on the UK was disproportionately huge." So although this ECM -v- GFS battleground is more prolonged than any of us expected, it will be of help for the future model watching; if ECM are wrong, then maybe we will only pay attention to sudden amplified patterns, when they are verified. Then there may not be as many disappointed casual viewers.

GFS 06z... Another run and another possibility after next weekend. Still continuing to model the brief PM a day before ECM (which ties in with the timing {prev posts}) and both will probably continue to tone it down; and anyway a 24 hour N'Westerly, wow. Flat pattern and only glimpses of cold, out into FI; never quite gets to us while the PV is weakening. Then the PV strengthens and that is that; Azores HP re-establishes and heading into Feb we have a strong PV, flat turbo charged Jet stream well to the North of the UK. Despite what some members will continue to say, that run is as bad as it gets if taken at face value. And I also looked at the bigger picture: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120115;time=06;ext=372;file=npsh500;sess=b92929e80e1d3dc5ae0a68e1496e5a37; Of course little tweaks can affect the picture later on but we are model watching and as far as the GFS Op run has been going over the last few days it is trending very poor for cold. There are still model differences and we can only hope ECM upgrades their 0z later today (before we write Jan off).

I am not saying GFS is or will be the right solution. As the ensembles suggest there is still a possibility of various outcomes after the 18th. However models may lack clarity in the minute but they are useful for trends. ECM have binned any prolonged cold and are moving towards GFS's poor outlook (for cold). Every run is going towards GFS, there is no up and down, it is a relentless downgrade. GFS will give us various solutions after the 19th as it is in FI and some will be worse than others (0z is one of the worst). What we now know is that the much talked about pattern change suggested by many members did happen as they predicted (mid Jan) but the synoptics would not give us real cold. We do now have a better (colder) background which must help for future shots & late in FI the Azores High is also less dominant. Strat changes may be the crucial variable and I will let the experts on this site appraise these. However it appears from what I have read there has been a significant downgrade on the warming, and if it does happen, it will probably be too late to help Feb for cold. So maybe this year the best we will get is PM excursions or frost and by the end of next weekend we should have had both of them. This is certainly nothing to excite the hardcore, but is better than what has gone before.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0&archive=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

So what they are saying is that now ECM have backtracked on their mega cold spell and has published two sensible runs they are now somehow better than GFS? No, I must be missing something here. They cannot be saying that after a U-Turn and two runs that have aligned, ECM is somehow showing greater continuity than GFS! Wow, who are these guys at NOAA? Surely with such small changes having significant impact downstream runs that flip are not a prerequisite for a bad model? To me it is what we would expect from such a tenuous situation. Neither should be lambasted for that, although for me it is harder to forgive ECM's climbdown. Apart from the PM shot next week modeled by ECM, it probably has the poorest outlook into FI. The so called flip today by GFS has improved it's outlook for cold for some lucky Northerners as well as a better background for cold, as we enter late January; though none of the synoptics are anywhere near giving us prolonged cold or anything to write home about. Its a case of jam today or jam tomorrow but with only very small portions.

It's beginning to take shape now. GFS a stalwart for zonal with little for coldies whilst ECM continue to downgrade the blocking. The latter could still offer some cold but marginal for snow for some and not sustained. The problem with ECM it is so easy to see it all go wrong with the jet stream powering through. Whereas GFS looks plausible to a point. Still undecided, but rather than looking progressive to prolonged cold the output is tending the wrong way and time for it to be diluted further.

GFS_06Z -Again late in FI, the PV moves East and gives us a shot?

GFS keeping us under the influence of HP next week. Just moving around blocking anything wintry. Still cold till Thursday but dry. HP over Eastern Europe is promising, so not sure where this is going in FI.

The Synoptics were as good as they have been all winter and if we did not get cold with this shot it would be back to the zonal train. Strat warming looks the only thing that will shift the pattern and it is now cooling so we have missed that first shot. Feb will reflect other warming events and will aid with dislodging the omnipotent jet stream , but this month now looks too late. Of course with zonal we may get some transitional cold but I think most members are looking for sustained cold.

00z GFS kills any chance of an Easterly this side of Feb? Again nothing develops, wintry wise, till the end of FI. Atlantic/Jetstream dominant in reliable time frame after a cold few days over the weekend. Models and runs becoming more consistent in their trend: the first chance of wintry weather will miss our shores. Today should rubber stamp the above so yes the omens for Jan are trending poor for snow and we have to hope the couple of chances that may or may not occur in Feb will come to fruition. Tick tock...

The recent output from GFS and to an extent the other models remains pointless beyond five days. GFS are failing to persevere with a pattern for more than two runs. Not only that but after each change it is a flip rather than a gentle progression. Do the variables change that much? It fuels incongruity within the weather conflabs and heightens my distrust, for when there is any constancy within the output, as the runs are, in the main, seemingly disingenuous. I have noticed experienced members saying that there is a meteorological event horizon around the 15th, when the weather Gods will decide our fate, and I assume this is why the outcomes are so widely different? Is it therefore the case that GFS (and coincidentally ECM) have changed the variables (in the 12z) to expound on the poorer pattern that is possible on that day,and thus the reason the Easterly is tossed into the abyss? Conversely the 06z was likely a reflection of variables favouring the better scenario from the 15th? Surely for the sake of mathematical integrity and for the peace of mind of the franchised there should be an addendum, where the input is explained so we can then extrapolate the results without the necessity of a medium. This may sound naive but I am just trying to understand the vagaries of model watching.

The last seven runs by GFS are all over the place. Even the runs following the previous runs are a total contrast. I believe at this time we will have to wait till the end of the week till each model gets a grip on what is going on. If GFS has not got a clue run to run then getting inter-model agreement at the moment is unlikely. So whether we get cold or not is no nearer being resolved although we are looking to lose the relatively mild setup; that is all that I am confident about at this time. Maybe some of the real experts can show what I am missing and read the likely medium term outlook for me.

The GFS four daily runs reflect the current nature of our weather pattern; a change is in the offering but until the variables are more stable the models are just guessing in FI. One run is the Azores High, then cold zonal, then ridging, then heights. Either or all could be correct for the rest of the winter in one way or another. Once we get the next 7-10 days of above average temps, settled weather over, we will have a greater understanding. My opinion was that the HP would sustain till early Feb, then we would get a taste of winter; but I am less sure now and it looks like it could be more mixed as attempts are made to bring the cold weather to our shores from around the 20th onwards.

Can I use this quote for my tip off to "The Daily Express"? That sounds like a front page: "Ice Age Weather Forecasted". Though I do agree that anything beyond seven days is very unreliable, and although no real cold is likely, proper cold zonal does excite more than the current, short term, trite HP.

Raging Jetstream and another HP moving in from the West; looks like it maybe about to reset to current setup!

"Now is the winter of our discontent". Shakespeare could not have written more eloquently of this season so far. The GFS continues to model a zonal flow punctured by the interloping of its bedfellow; the autonomous high. But do not forsake the signs, they remain lucid; the promise of tomorrow lies beneath the veil of mist that is...time. "Patience and fortitude conquer all things". "O say, can you see, by the dawn's early light / what so proudly we hailed at the twilight's last gleaming." "The changes are a coming" and whether they will be, the syrup of Ipecac or the gold at the end of the rainbow, not even the Seven Wise Men of Greece would elucidate, with any prescience. Let us wait and see, and remember "Despair ruins some, presumption many."

Realism and sensibility are finally emanating from member's posts. This confounding illusion that "the change" due in mid Jan was the cornucopia of all things cold was rather puzzling. Yes, pattern change is happening due to the slackening of the polar winds; whether this is transitional or the beginning of a potential cold spell has always been debatable. The change has never been modeled to be substantive and the signs are that the NAO/AO will only go negative for a short period. GFS appear to be hinting at this with the failed efforts of any ridging; 24 hour topplers. The models are very similar in the high-res part of the models, with the omnipresent HP strutting its stuff close the SW of the UK. In my opinion it will take several efforts to dislodge this, or move it to a more progressive place. GFS looks to have troughing over the USA into FI and this promises the potential for Atlantic ridging and consequently the HP possibly being sighted in a more North Westerly locale (viz a viz the UK). It is a rather slow looking transition, not the flip we saw in 2010 (an unusual suspect) so we have to be patient. Give it a chance, it may fail, but with the compounding of favourable synoptics this is as good a chance as we have seen this winter.