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Stuie

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Everything posted by Stuie

  1. Who knows, I will go for light and escalating during the day. It will be a nowcast scenario (don`t you just love those cliches) and warnings can be issued at any point. Pretty sure this is what happened in 2010, an emergency warning about lunchtime for my area and it chucked it down.
  2. Not really, very similar to Saturdays prediction of the 2nd front coming in. Most likely light snow most of the day. Graphic is lunchtime. But level of precipitation is zero? Bizarre this NAE model.
  3. Latest NAE output is saying our event will basically be tomorrow 6pm onwards. Tuesday morning looks fab with this sort of precipitation level
  4. From the MO thread, after an excellent post...... "If I had to choose a prime A1 spot for tomorrows snowfall, I would be going for Cambridgeshire." Thanks, perfect ;-)
  5. Hi Snowking, remember me? Saffron Walden chappy (Sinth). Thanks for the info. Gutted about tomorrow as we should have been ok, now it`s marginal. Anyway good luck us :-)
  6. The thing is in December, the consensus was that this was pretty much the same scenario. The beast from the east was coming, blimey even a mod said "it`s coming" and alas it didn`t. I am not surprised at the mood in here, apprehensive to say the least. The more and more a potential event gets support and fails to materialise then it isn`t hard to lose faith. Winter is a bracketed period of time, the pieces have to fall into place soon.
  7. Did you edit to say That`s all I am saying on this matter"? Anyway regardless of who`s backyard (better be mine) lets see what pans out tomorrow. This could even escalate/flip, it`s not as if the temps are not there to support that. Chin up.
  8. No it seems to be uppers of only -4 at that point in time. It actually could effect slightly north of London into the Chelmsford area but this is just going by the GEFS.
  9. Interesting chart from the GEFS showing a concern regarding snow south of London on Monday. I had read it but not seen any problem until this. Backs up the concern quite well. (depending on whether there is any faith in the GEFS precipitation charts)
  10. Definitely yes, you need precipitation for it to snow anywhere (and rain)
  11. Although I posted about do not bother with FI charts, the ECM is an "upgrade" in a loose cliche way from the 0z run in terms of not letting a mild upper blip happen. Based on the 850 heights, this run at 192 fends off the milder air whereas on the 6z it lets it break though briefly somewhat. At some point in the coming days "Shirley" (can I say that again?) a model has to start latching onto any effects of the SSW (if any). Could the ECM be showing signs of that already? Probably not but at least it appears to put up more of a fight.
  12. After reading the BBC SSW link posted pages ago, there is absolutely no point even clicking on that far ahead let alone posting it. (Not in the the tone it looks like btw)
  13. Not entirely sure were the downgrades are short term, well for West Anglia anyway. ECM run looks great for us up until Wednesday. Regarding Monday, we are in the part of the UK that SHOULDN`T see rain :-)
  14. Maybe the ECM is showing why the West country "could" miss out on snow on Monday as Ian F is hinting with -4 uppers whereas Anglia is -8.
  15. Can`t remember the last time when it snowed for a whole day. That could pan out in West Anglia with the front pushing down from the NE.
  16. The 6z showed the same level. I have found the GFS to be pretty good at predicting precipitation but haven`t done a 3 month case study. Every chart to their own and even if just out of interest I will follow this.
  17. The GFS is not backing away with the precipitation level for Monday. Really hope it doesn`t follow the precipitation prediction of the NAE. This is what I will be following for the next 24 hrs. TBH the east and anglia region up until Wednesday looks decent imo.
  18. Monday evening still looks on the cards with the GFS for heavy snow.
  19. Cast your minds back, does anybody remember the beast from the east that didn`t materialise. If you don`t then your memory is worse than mine. I have that gut feeling that something could go wrong between now and Monday due to the amazing near miss. You can`t blame me? But shirley it can`t be cry wolf again.
  20. Ireland must be rubbing their hands together. Not often they are like Tenerife (in Jan)
  21. Stuff the T120, T96 is fab especially if the front moving NW/SE chucks some snow on Lundi :-)!
  22. To me this could be more relative to the West and not the whole UK as a whole. The colder air is definitely in the east i.e Anglia where imo you would be gutted if it didn`t snow. EDIT: ECM even at lunch on Monday
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