P.K.

I'd rather you just linked to it. If I notice any problems with it I can easily edit it on S2K.

Thats the work of Mike Adcock, its all imperial though for miniobs in the version I have so I prefer to decode them by looking at them. The heights and other things are in metres for the USAF anyway. As I've said to Mike before I think that file is cheating.

Feel free to use the recon decoding guide I posted here as the USAF and NOAA miniobs are different.

At the moment 25m/s winds extend out 130km to the east and 110km to the west, 15m/s winds out 300km to the east and 185km to the west. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0608 SAOMAI (0608) ANALYSIS PSTN 090900UTC 25.1N 126.1E GOOD MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 70NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 160NM EAST 100NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 100900UTC 27.4N 119.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 110600UTC 30.0N 114.5E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

Saomai and Bopha are not too far apart now. I've posted some images to UKww TH about a possible fujiwhara interaction, although looking at the latest forecast track Bopha is given less of a southerly track than before and is heading overland which will certainly affect its intensity. With Bopha being the weaker system Saomai is more likely to partly kill it off.

I've heard of such claims before but can't really see how they could be connected to such big earthquakes as this. (The USGS has it listed as a magnitude 5. :lol:

Careful, that is using non official TC data for non RSMC Miami basins, rather than the official data. (It has been very different over the last few days!) I wouldn't have thought so. That area is around the "Pacific Ring of Fire" and often has earthquakes.

The TD I posted about yesterday is now TS Bopha (0609) with winds of 40kts. By the way they've changed the address of that excellent page to http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/ so I don't know how much longer than link will work for. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0609 BOPHA (0609) ANALYSIS PSTN 060900UTC 22.2N 130.9E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 070900UTC 22.6N 129.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 080600UTC 22.6N 128.6E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 090600UTC 22.6N 127.5E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT

It isn't confusing if you just stick with the official data from RSMC Tokyo. I don't usually look at the JTWC but the 0600 GMT position you refer to for the TD that is now TS Maria was 200km to the SE of the RSMC Tokyo 0600 GMT position. I'm therefore not sure about their thinking of this being subtropical as the convection is over the centre.

That system isn't numbered yet so you need to be careful about referring to it as 08W as 0607 is the next number. Three TDs in the area now. WWJP25 RJTD 050600 WARNING AND SUMMARY 050600. WARNING VALID 060600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 25.6N 146.3E EAST OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXPECTED MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 26.0N 141.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 11.6N 147.6E SEA EAST OF MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 15.0N 146.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. WARNING. DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI YELLOW SEA. WARNING. DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 142E 46N 150E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 40N 180E 36N 170E 36N 150E 39N 142E. SUMMARY. LOW 1002 HPA AT 46N 159E ESE 10 KT. LOW 1006 HPA AT 44N 178E EAST 10 KT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 21N 133E NW 10 KT. HIGH 1012 HPA AT 37N 124E ALMOST STATIONARY. OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 46N 159E TO 46N 160E 45N 161E. COLD FRONT FROM 45N 161E TO 41N 157E 38N 150E. WARM FRONT FROM 45N 161E TO 44N 164E 42N 167E. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

1st June to the end of November for the North Atlantic It is going to be very hard for it to be as active as last year. As active as 2004 is certainly possible though.

Another TD now. WWJP25 RJTD 040600 WARNING AND SUMMARY 040600. WARNING VALID 050600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. WARNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 22.7N 151.4E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. WARNING. DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI YELLOW SEA. WARNING. DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 39N 180E 37N 160E 38N 145E 42N 143E. SUMMARY. LOW 992 HPA AT 63N 154E SSE 20 KT. LOW 1006 HPA AT 47N 154E EAST 15 KT. LOW 1008 HPA AT 42N 168E ENE 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 132E WEST SLOWLY. LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 10N 150E ALMOST STATIONARY. HIGH 1014 HPA AT 37N 125E ALMOST STATIONARY. HIGH 1016 HPA AT 33N 153E ESE 15 KT. OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 47N 154E TO 46N 155E 45N 156E. WARM FRONT FROM 45N 156E TO 43N 158E 42N 160E. COLD FRONT FROM 45N 156E TO 42N 150E 42N 145E 44N 140E. REMARKS. TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 990 HPA AT 22.9N 109.0E : SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Talking of the Pacific has anyone else noticed the invest the NRL have in the SW Pacific? It has dissipated now but it was down to 1004hPa yesterday. Now the cyclone season ends down there in April so this is like an invest in the North Atlantic at the end of March. HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA 10 NORTH EASTERN AREA EQUATOR TO 28S, 142E TO 170E ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE FOR 24 HOURS FROM 2300UTC 02 AUGUST 2006 PART 1 WARNINGS Nil. PART 2 SITUATION At 021800UTC. Low 1004 hPa near 6S 155E. Trough near 3S 142E to Low to 10S158E to 28S159E. PART 3 FORECAST Within 150nm of low. Clockwise winds 20/30 knots. Rough seas. Areas of rain and thunderstorms. Trough moving to 5S156E to 28S168E by 032300UTC. Ok this isn't the NW Pacific but its not far away.

That is the jet that flies high in the atmosphere to help the models rather than the one which flies into the system to sample how strong it is.

It is has just been upgraded within the last hour yes.

It is only 5kts off TY status now. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 020900UTC 19.1N 114.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 030900UTC 20.2N 111.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 040600UTC 21.5N 109.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 050600UTC 22.2N 107.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT

There was a 67kt reading though which would translate to about 53kts at the surface and so be rounded up to 55kts.

That other low pressure area has been there for a couple of days. WWJP25 RJTD 011200 WARNING AND SUMMARY 011200. WARNING VALID 021200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. WARNING. DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI YELLOW SEA. WARNING. DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 141E 41N 142E 46N 150E 51N 157E 60N 160E 60N 180E 40N 180E 34N 152E 35N 141E. SUMMARY. LOW 1012 HPA AT 37N 152E ENE 10 KT. LOW 1010 HPA AT 46N 164E EAST 20 KT. LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 13N 140E WEST SLOWLY. HIGH 1020 HPA AT 50N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY. WARM FRONT FROM 46N 164E TO 47N 171E 46N 178E. COLD FRONT FROM 46N 164E TO 43N 162E 41N 158E. STATIONARY FRONT FROM 41N 158E TO 39N 156E 35N 153E 30N 148E 27N 140E. STATIONARY FRONT FROM 34N 115E TO 37N 120E 42N 123E 43N 130E 41N 138E. REMARKS. TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 994 HPA AT 17.5N 116.7E : SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

That above area has been a tropical depression for two days now. WARNING AND SUMMARY 300600. WARNING VALID 310600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA AT 36N 148E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST SLOWLY. WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. WARNING. DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI YELLOW SEA. WARNING. DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 38N 141E 42N 142E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 40N 180E 32N 165E 38N 141E. SUMMARY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 14N 127E WNW 10 KT. HIGH 1014 HPA AT 31N 128E WEST 10 KT. STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N 143E TO 32N 150E 35N 153E 33N 159E. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

It wasn't even only a typhoon at landfall over China but a 55kt severe tropical storn so the death toll was very high. Kamei also made landfall earlier as a 55kt STS.

Typhoon Ewiniar (0603) has intensified rapidly the morning and is now up to 80kts. The system you have marked up as 95W there has been a TD since this morning as well.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 300600UTC 06.6N 138.6E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 010600UTC 08.5N 137.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT

It was upgraded at 0600 GMT. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602) ANALYSIS PSTN 270900UTC 17.8N 113.7E POOR MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 60NM FORECAST 24HF 280900UTC 20.1N 112.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 290600UTC 21.4N 111.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 300600UTC 23.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

Ah yes they changed their web address a while ago. Latest model guidance: FXPQ20 RJTD 261800 RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST NAME TD PSTN 261800UTC 15.9N 115.8E PRES 1004HPA MXWD 30KT FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL TIME PSTN PRES MXWD (CHANGE FROM T=0) T=06 16.7N 115.3E 000HPA +001KT T=12 17.0N 115.2E -002HPA +002KT T=18 17.6N 114.7E -003HPA 000KT T=24 18.2N 114.5E -003HPA +003KT T=30 19.2N 114.1E -004HPA +004KT T=36 19.8N 113.6E -006HPA +003KT T=42 20.2N 113.0E -006HPA +003KT T=48 20.9N 112.4E -006HPA +003KT T=54 21.7N 112.2E -006HPA +003KT T=60 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=66 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=72 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=78 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=84 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=

You are much better off using the official data here. As well as being more accurate there are updates every 3 hours.