P.K.

134kt 30 second wind, 136kt 10 second wind, 111kt SFMR surface wind. URNT40 KWBC 211520 NOAA3 WX18A RITA 151500 2415 08526 10018 -0734 166123 +126 +121 165124 099 022 151530 2414 08528 9999 -0898 164123 +131 +127 166126 106 024 151600 2414 08531 10067 -1114 165134 +131 +131 165136 111 038 151630 2414 08533 10031 -1360 167124 +145 +145 166136 123 023 151700 2413 08535 10061 -1961 170104 +163 +154 175113 106 001

No. 115kts now :blink: :blink: Will be interesting to see what recon finds later.

6pm model guidance from SHIP and DSHP takes this to 125kts in 48 hours, although this is an increase of around 30 kts on the previous model guidance. :blink: WHXX01 KWBC 201825 CHGHUR DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR HURRICANE RITA (AL182005) ON 20050920 1800 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS... 050920 1800 050921 0600 050921 1800 050922 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMD 23.9N 81.7W 24.4N 84.0W 24.7N 85.9W 25.2N 87.5W BAMM 23.9N 81.7W 24.3N 83.8W 24.7N 85.9W 24.9N 87.9W A98E 23.9N 81.7W 24.0N 84.6W 24.1N 87.2W 24.1N 89.1W LBAR 23.9N 81.7W 24.2N 84.2W 24.4N 86.7W 24.6N 89.1W SHIP 85KTS 103KTS 116KTS 122KTS DSHP 85KTS 103KTS 116KTS 122KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS... 050922 1800 050923 1800 050924 1800 050925 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMD 25.8N 89.0W 27.6N 92.5W 29.7N 95.8W 31.7N 96.4W BAMM 25.2N 89.7W 25.8N 93.0W 27.5N 94.3W 31.6N 94.8W A98E 24.3N 90.7W 24.5N 93.7W 25.3N 96.1W 26.6N 96.5W LBAR 25.1N 91.6W 27.0N 95.5W 30.0N 97.7W 33.1N 97.6W SHIP 125KTS 120KTS 105KTS 81KTS DSHP 125KTS 120KTS 56KTS 30KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 23.9N LONCUR = 81.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT LATM12 = 23.6N LONM12 = 78.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 14KT LATM24 = 23.1N LONM24 = 75.9W WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 60KT CENPRS = 976MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 105NM

2001 2410N 08210W 03047 5081 053 088 120 120 089 03015 0000000000 88kt 30 second wind, 89kt 10 second wind.

This is the 9th in the North Atlantic I'd have thought so, a couple of the GFDL runs have been in that region but generally model runs have been a fair bit west of that. Was Maria not strong enough then? (100kts)

The last mini-obs I last posted are at 700hPa so a 90% reduction should now be used rather than 80%.

1343 2403N 08019W 03041 0014 134 078 094 094 080 03102 0000000000 10 second wind of 80kts, 30 second wind of 78kts.

A 90% reduction is used from 700hPa (As with Katrina), however in that case the SFMR wsa measuring winds of less than 90% of the flight level winds at the surface so they said the 90% may have been a bit high. Edit - 982hPa in the latest vortex message.

I thought it was an 80% reduction from this level which would make it 62kts. Radio NHCWX would go to a break just as I start Teamspeak wouldn't it, lol.

1216. 2411N 08051W 01523 5053 052 077 152 152 078 01501 0000000000 78kt 10 second wind, 77kt 30 second wind at 850hPa.

If recon hasn't found strong enough winds there is no reason to upgrade it even if the pressure is fairly low. (The background pressures aren't the same with all tropical cyclones and the size of the storm is also a factor)

Hurricane Philippe The GFDL did move over that way in a couple of the runs today, not quite as far east as the model you are referring to on there though. There has also just been a tropical storm in the NW Pacific. (Vicente)

Looking at the recon for this afternoon: NOAA3: Max 10 second wind of 53kts, I wouldn't trust the SFMR readings as quite a few are over 100kts so that can't be working properly. AF302: Max 10 second wind of 60kts at 850hPa.

Haven't decoded it fully but it basically means: 17:07 GMT 24.3N 77.4W 1520m flight level (850hPa) 50 Deg wind at 33kts

As far as I know Mark isn't signed up here. That filming was from the 30th of August if I remember right, just over a month after our initial site investigation which took place over three days. I think that was the first time Mark had been to Birmingham following the tornado and I know he was shocked at the damage he saw even a month on. I haven't seen the programme yet (Wrong region) but I should get to see it soon.

137kt flight level winds just recorded. Even the SMRF was reading 111kts at the surface.

Strange, the mini-obs aren't working for that plane. The NOAA ones are working though. Edit - Ah using the NHC header even though the data is from the NOAA plane.

It is Monday here. The sat images haven't updated for a while, is this just one of the usual sat blackouts?

Well you have to remember we have had all these strong storms already and have only just reached the point of the season that is usually the most active.

Doesn't matter what station I watch over there for various storms but they are all far better than anything over here. We don't have all these doppler radars though that they use for zooming into areas.

The highest recon reading this afternoon was 166kts at flight level, which is 149kts at the surface. Since then the highest reading has been 160kts at flight level which is 144kts at the surface. There is currently a NOAA jet in the area which was at 27.2N 89.5W at 8:50pm BST.

Surface winds are typical 90% of the flight level winds (In this case they do appear to be using this reduction) Anyway the upgrade was following 30 second winds of 149kts, with 10 second winds of 153kts. 1059 2552N 08718W 03061 5415 142 149 092 092 153 02695 0000000100

Just a quick post: Within the last 15 minutes the maximum flight level winds found by recon were 106kts in the SE quad. The other recon is currently in the SW quad.

This is the only report so far: 0845 MARATHON MIDDLE KEYS IN MO FL 2471 8108 MONROE COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT REPORTED 1 HANGAR AND 11 PRIVATE AIRCRAFT DAMAGED AT MARATHON AIRPORT. 2 HOMES DAMAGED...ONE PARTIALLY UNROOFED ON 72ND STREET. RELAYE (EYW)

I believe you have already been in contact with TORRO haven't you? Edit - Ok yes it was looking at TORRO. The helicopter images will be interesting in your programme. (Several roads were closed off when I was involved with the site investigation)