P.K.

This is the other system. WWCI50 BABJ 151800 1:31:11:01:00 BT SECURITE= MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING AT 2215UTC FEB. 15 2006= MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS= SYNOPSIS VALID 1800UTC FEB. 15= FORECAST VALID 1800UTC FEB. 16= WARNING= NIL= SUMMARY= LOW PRESSURE AREA 1005HPA NEAR 05N 136E MOVING WEST SLOWLY= WINDS FROM 6 TO 10M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER YELLOW SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND EAST CHINA SEA AND KOREA STRAIT AND SEA OF JAPAN AND BASHI CHANNEL= SW WINDS FROM 6 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER SEA NEAR RYUKYU-GUNTO ISLANDS= WINDS FROM 6 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN= NE WINDS FROM 6 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES= SE WINDS FROM 8 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER SEA NORTHEAST OF AUSTRALIA= HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER PART OF YELLOW SEA AND EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT AND BEIBU GULF AND SOUTH CHINA COASTAL WATERS AND SEA OF JAPAN SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN AND KOREA STRAIT AND PART SEA NEAR LUZON= HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND NORTH OF G. OF THAILAND AND LAUT JAWA AND LAUT MALUKU AND LAUT BANDA AND SEA SOUTH OF JAWA AND PART OF SULAWESI SEA AND ARAFURA SEA AND MALACCA STRAIT AND SEL. MAKASSAR AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND PART SEA NEAR KALIMANTAN= FORECAST= N/NE WINDS FROM 8 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT AND YELLOW SEA AND EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND KOREA STRAIT AND SEA NEAR RYUKYU-GUNTO ISLANDS= NE/ENE WINDS FROM 8 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA AND BASHI CHANNEL= WINDS FROM 6 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER BEIBU GULF= NW WINDS FROM 8 TO 18M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER SEA OF JAPAN= WINDS FROM 8 TO 18M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER SEA EAST OF JAPAN AND SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN= WINDS FROM 6 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES=

I wouldn't go by the Navy, use the various RSMCs around the world instead. You don't get typhoons in this part of the world. NW Pacific season is al year round, SW Pacific is more like November to April. (Well that is the Australian season anyway) ZCZC 179 WTNZ41 NZKL 151306 STORM WARNING 189 THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA/S: SUBTROPIC AND PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU 980HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5 SOUTH 170.7 WEST AT 151200 UTC. POSITION FAIR. REPEAT POSITION 26.5S 170.7W AT 151200 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING SLOWLY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 27.5S 169.0W AT 160000 UTC AND NEAR 28.5S 166.5W AT 161200 UTC. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 186. NNNN

This seems to have gone un-noticed here. Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A18 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 14/1417 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 23.7 South 174.2 West at 14012600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving southeast about 10 knots. Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to the centre. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre, over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 150 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 100 miles elsewhere. Overall organisation still remains good. Outer convective bands are weakening but inner bands continue to wrap tightly around llcc. Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere. Shear remains minimal. SST about 28C. Vaianu is expected to weaken beyound 25S due to cooler SSTs and increased shear aloft. Dvorak analysis based on centre embedded in LG yielding DT=4.5. PT=MET=4.5, thus T4.5/4.5/S0.5/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southeast by a deep northwest steering flow. Global models generally agree on this with graduall weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 25.0S 174.3W mov ESE at 08kt with 65 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 151200 UTC near 26.4S 171.5W mov SE at 08kt with 60 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 160000 UTC near 27.7S 169.7W mov SE at 08kt with 50kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 161200 UTC near 28.9S 168.7W mov SE at 08kt with 40kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 142000 UTC. Track IR Image

It has been rather quiet around Australia over the last few years. So far this season there has already been Bertie, Clare, Daryl, and Jim.

I'll agree it is a La Nina when both the NOAA and BoM say it is.

Depends what you read, the BoM still have it as neutral.

Opening it in Wordpad it looks like a text file.

If anyone can't get the Excel thing to work just copy the data file and make it a text file and it is easy to then import into any stats program such as R.

Wow, some great photos there!

They are the times the models were run in GMT.

Looks very good. Is there anyway to manually add in data for this month and last month from Phillip Eden's stats? Edit - Don't worry I've found the data file.

Already upgraded to TS α. See http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.p...pic=21666&st=51

Put it this way, I was following the recon the other night and went to bed when a 963hPa dropsonde reading came in. Next I knew mid afternoon the following day it was at 882hPa but I couldn't even check any sat images. I really don't think there is anything else we could have seen this season. (Except for a proper Cape Verde storm)

I'm around, I just don't have time to go through 10 pages in a day due to the shear amount of work I'm doing at the moment.

They are 30 second sustained winds, whereas the advisories use 1 minute sustained winds. The second wind reading is the max 10 second measurement.

They pass the advisories on to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center WTNT33 KWNH 252110 TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 33 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 4 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD THREAT REMAIN... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI... ...TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...TENNESSEE...MISSISSIPPI... LOUISIANA...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NECHES... ANGELINA...BIG BLACK...CALCASIEU... AND MERMENTAU RIVERS. AT 4 PM CDT...21Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST...OR 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF BATESVILLE ARKANSAS. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENSUING 24 HR PERIOD. RITA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS SHE CONTINUES HER JOURNEY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 999 MB...OR 29.50 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 2 PM CDT ...LOUISIANA... LAPLACE 12.4 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 BUNKIE 10.0 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 BATON ROUGE 9.4 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 JENNINGS 9.4 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 LAFAYETTE 8.6 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 PORT VINCENT 8.1 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 MILLERVILLE 8.1 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 INNISWOLD 7.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 FORT POLK 6.7 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 BOSSIER CITY 6.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 NEW ORLEANS NORL1 6.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 EUNICE 6.1 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 SHREVEPORT 5.5 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 ...TEXAS... BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 8.6 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 EVADALE 6.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 CLEVELAND 3.8 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 LONGVIEW 3.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 LIVINGSTON 2.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 ...ARKANSAS... STUTTGART 5.7 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 MOUNT IDA 4.9 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 HOT SPRINGS 4.7 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 TEXARKANA 4.0 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 BATESVILLE 3.4 EL DORADO 3.2 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 LITTLE ROCK 3.0 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 MONTICELLO 2.6 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 DEQUEEN 2.5 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 JONESBORO 1.2 ...MISSISSIPPI... GREENVILLE 6.6 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 GREENWOOD 2.6 TUPELO 1.9 JACKSON 1.1 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 ...ALABAMA... EVERGREEN 3.5 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...36.6 NORTH...91.2 WEST... MOVEMENT TOWARD NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. SZATANEK/BANN I was looking at that the other day, something to keep an eye on I think.

Ten second flight level winds in the NE quad are down from 165kts at the 700hPa flight level at just before 7am BST this morning to 159kts within the last half hour.

The rate of deepening of this storm has been crazy today, just how low can it go??

Not heard of him. Down to 904hPa now. :blink:

901.6hPa I think it was.

Currently the AF300 and NOAA3 are in this system. I'm expecting an upgrade in the next advisory.

161kt 10 second average, 160kt 30 second average. :huh: :huh: SXXX50 KNHC 211938 AF300 1418A RITA HDOB 27 KNHC 1931. 2432N 08607W 03050 5372 134 156 076 076 159 02684 0000000100 1932 2431N 08608W 03054 5424 134 160 080 080 161 02636 0000000100

Recon needs to find the winds to be strong enough for it to be upgraded, it isn't just based on the minimum pressure. The 153kt reading I posted above is approximately 137.7kts at the surface, however based on SFMR readings from earlier and readings from Katrina the 90% reduction may not be enough.

Ah so he is who I thought he was, he knows what he is talking about. Can't see any stronger mini-obs winds since the last ones I posted. Edit - 153kts 10 second winds, 151kts 30 second winds. 1751. 2419N 08617W 03053 5426 015 151 086 086 153 02632 0000000100

152kts 10 second average, 143kt 30 second averge (30 seconds later), 125kt SFMR surface reading. :blink: :blink: URNT40 KWBC 211610 NOAA3 WX18A RITA 160600 2422 08551 9988 -1608 100089 +174 +133 100105 104 008 160630 2424 08551 10028 -1406 101138 +138 +136 100152 125 015 160700 2426 08551 10001 -1097 096143 +129 +127 097148 115 028 160730 2428 08551 9993 -0912 095133 +133 +133 094137 106 026 160800 2430 08551 10001 -0752 097123 +128 +128 096126 100 014