P.K.

The global models don't do much either with this judging by the central pressures given on the cyclone phase analysis page. Activity builds up from July with that month averaging 4.1 TSs.

It is currently a bit behind the 1971-2000 average of 4.5 tropical storms up until the end of June. If the current TD gets upgraded it will be the second one of the year. Note tropical depressions are not numbered in this area. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 260600UTC 14.5N 118.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 270600UTC 15.0N 115.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT FXPQ20 RJTD 260600 RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST NAME TD PSTN 260600UTC 14.5N 118.2E PRES 1004HPA MXWD 30KT FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL TIME PSTN PRES MXWD (CHANGE FROM T=0) T=06 15.5N 116.2E 000HPA 000KT T=12 16.2N 115.7E -001HPA +002KT T=18 17.0N 115.1E -002HPA +002KT T=24 17.3N 114.9E -003HPA 000KT T=30 18.2N 114.0E -003HPA -002KT T=36 18.9N 113.2E -003HPA +001KT T=42 19.5N 113.2E -003HPA -001KT T=48 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=54 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=60 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=66 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=72 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=78 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=84 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=

It has to be remembered that the SS scale is purely a wind scale, and not a surge scale. The surge values are there as an indication of general surge values but by no means will it follow them due to all the factors detailed above.

The surge built up while it was a cat 5. It doesn't fall off as quickly as the wind speed can.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A2.html :o

It is on the NRL page so it is most likely correct. Also the SSD Dvorak page now lists it as 01L.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 800 AM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH LAND...NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...A SMALL DECREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR COULD BRING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST AMSU DATA AND HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/06...AND THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST BY A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY. ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT SOME GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE MEANDERING ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO A POSSIBLE ONE. BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...THE PRIMARY THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 16.0N 102.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 16.7N 102.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 17.5N 101.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 17.5N 100.5W 20 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 17.5N 99.5W 20 KT

Just 50 minutes until the start of the season. Phil Klotzbach released his latest forecast yesterday which can be found here http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2006/june2006/.

WTPZ41 KNHC 300857 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 200 AM PDT TUE MAY 30 2006 DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN ABSENT FROM ALETTA FOR ABOUT EIGHT HOURS UNTIL IT RESUMED AROUND 04Z THIS MORNING. WHILE THE RECENT BURST HAS PERSISTED FOR A FEW HOURS... THE CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT WELL ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 06Z DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE PASSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASING SHEAR THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WEAKENING OF THIS SMALL CYCLONE SINCE YESTERDAY... AND THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAIRLY STABLE AND DRY. GIVEN HOW MUCH ALETTA HAS STRUGGLED AGAINST THESE CONDITIONS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS... AND SINCE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO ROUGHLY DOUBLE IN MAGNITUDE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... RESTRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS... A BIT FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS... ALTHOUGH THE LOW COULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY SOONER THAN SHOWN IN THE FORECAST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 16.0N 102.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 15.9N 103.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 31/0600Z 15.8N 104.2W 25 KT 36HR VT 31/1800Z 15.6N 105.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 01/0600Z 15.3N 106.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 03/0600Z 15.0N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/0600Z 15.0N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

That is TD 1 now.

Think they said exactly the same thing last year in the hope they might be correct and the NHC wrong. We all know who was correct.

It isn't really an early start for the NW Pacific season. http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-cente...limatology.html

Officially it was slightly higher at 965hPa at landfall. That 45m/s wind was from late on the 14th to late on the 15th May at 90kts.

That is an odd quote, he may have been misquoted though. If it reaches the ground it is a tornado.

It is out now, the SSTAs were up last month by 0.14C to +0.42C.

Have you heard anything of measured speeds at landfall? The advisory at the time was 70kts, but I believe wind readings in China are a two minute average? (I may be wrong)

None of the models are predicting a warm ENSO event this summer. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml The latest update is here, although the next update will be out within a few hours. Summary: Pacific remains neutral. Cool phase nearly over The recent cool phase in the Pacific, which briefly approached La Niña-like conditions, is showing signs of decay. Sea-surface temperatures have continued to warm in the central to eastern Pacific and are now close to average. More importantly, the large body of cooler than average sub-surface water in the east has contracted considerably during the past month. Nonetheless, the SOI has continued to rise, with the latest 30-day value being about +18. In addition, cloudiness remains strongly suppressed around the date-line. While both the SOI and the cloud are continuing to show behaviour consistent with a La Niña, large-scale coupling between the Pacific atmosphere and ocean is generally weak or absent in the southern autumn. Computer modelling predictions of Pacific temperatures mostly indicate warming over the next few seasons, with neutral conditions in the southern winter and spring. It should be noted, however, that due to the aforementioned weak large scale coupling at this time of the year, March to June is the period when predictability of future ENSO conditions is at its lowest.

Mala was rather strong at 100-110kts. Not quite strong enough to reach Super Cyclonic status though.

There are links on that WMO page I gave you the link to be before. Here is the direct link though for this case. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cyclone.htm

It has actually been called Cyclonic Storm Mala. The number is BOB 1 as it says in the advisories.

Another one to watch now. No. BOB/1/2006/ 05 Dated 25th April 2006 Subject: Cyclonic Storm over Bay of Bengal The Cyclonic Storm ( MALA ) over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 2030 IST of 25th April 2006 near Lat. 10.00 N and Long. 89.50 E, about 400 km southwest of Port Blair and 1100 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in northwesterly direction. Under its influence, isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall accompanied with squally winds speed reaching 65-75 kmph is likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours.

Every 3 hours is good! The updates will be hourly when landfall occurs.

They've been sustained at 135kts since dropping to 905hPa. The pressure has gone up 5hPa but they haven't changed the winds. It is the same thing but in standard units. You can't directly infer windspeeds from the pressure. A large storm with a low pressure with have lower winds than a smaller storm with the same central pressure. I don't need another forum right at the moment. :o

Indeed. It's also a slightly different method than used by the SSD page etc. (Objective as opposed to the subjective method :o )

Ignore that, it is clearly very wrong. Also Monica is now 910hPa and never went below 905hPa in advisories so ignore what the NRL page says. It's not 879hPa. I'm also a bit suspicious about TC Zoe's pressure unless anyone can show me RSMC Nadi's best track for it. (Not the JTWC best track)