StingJet
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Just to quantify the graphic below (GFS 12z - XCWeather)
The two lines (yellow) that I have added represent north wales and south wales.
Typically an 8mb pressure differential between north wales and south wales would deliver a gale (F8)With Eunice we have a 20mb pressure differential ! I have not seen such a PD since I started competitive windsurfing in the late 80s and tracking weather systems since..
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The pressure differential between the Azores high @ 1040mb and Eunice @ 970mb, Isobars as tight as a camel's ar*e in a sandstorm (GFS 12z refers)
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28 minutes ago, Surrey said:
Going off the GFS..
I'm not an expert in this but that is almost perfect alignment for some sort of sting jet to potentially form... its still deepening on approach albeit not now bombing however...
Jet stream
Still bombing mate - 30mb drop from 1300hrs Thursday (1000mb) to 1300hrs Friday (970mb) (UKMet Charts refer)
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A little bit of "light" reading on the Sting Jet for those interested
Link provides a Webcast and Powerpoint presentation
http://www.eumetrain.org/resources/sting_jets_2012.html -
23 minutes ago, johnwirral said:
100 mph gusts off the the N.Wales and N.W English coasts forecast this morning, also large 9m tides for Hilbre Island. Looks like it will be a nice broad reach down the wall at WK, if there’s anything remaining of it when the tide turns…
Hey John in Wirral ... thanks for sharing mate .... your 1m ASL is worrying me , good job its not a 10m
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48 minutes ago, richie3846 said:
Those inland types have no clue what it's like in these storms in exposed locations! I hope this one isn't as bad as some of the models suggest. 100mph is the point where I start to worry. I've already given strict orders to my slightly insane parents that they aren't to go down to beach to take a look!! Especially worrying given that down south we haven't had a really windy storm for a few years, so there's always more risk of stuff coming loose or toppling over. Fingers crossed for you too, hope everything is still in one piece come Saturday morning!
Even I have a raised eyebrow of concern now , still at this range , plenty of scope for change .. GFS 18z pub run last night completely downgraded the Storm , only to ramp it up again on the 00z and 06z runs this morning. ECM and UKMet have been pretty consistent over the last couple of days with regards to the evolution of track and intensity. Additionally the cold air mixing in now is an upgrade so to speak with the potential for blizzards across a good swathe of the UK, at least it will be in and out rather sharpish.
I'll not speak of the Sting Jet just yet ... last one I experienced was Storm Kyrill 17th / 18th Jan 2007, a significant number of us UK and Euro SpeedSurfers were waiting patiently at West Kirby, Wirral for the 80+ kt Westerly to moderate to a sailable 40-50Kts
for those who are not familiar with said phenomena
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/wind/sting-jet
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5 minutes ago, richie3846 said:
I suggest the yellow warning is just a broad sweep for now. Except ambers as we get closer. Always a worry for me as I have family in Swansea, which gets an absolute beating in these types of setups.
Always a worry mate , similar to Swansea here on the northern tip of Anglesey , battening down the hatches quite the norm. It must be at least 10 years ago Christmas through to mid Jan we had 19 consecutive days of severe gales , with 3 days recording over 100mph gusts on my Davis Vantage Pro, the Integrated Sensor Suite (ISS) got an absolute battering and ultimate destruction
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32 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:
Friday's storm looks even stronger on the GFS this morning, bring it on
For sure .. Eunice could be quite an intense feature for NI, Wales and England , most of Scotland has some rest bite. The MetO supporting details provides an interesting read on likely outcomes and potential wind speeds
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9 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:
And Storm Dudley on Wednesday of course.
Well spotted mate & for completeness:
Wednesday
Thursday (ditto)
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The MetO have now issued a severe weather warning (Yellow - Wind) for Friday, about time ! & we have a named Storm - Eunice
Wednesday and Thursdays yellow warnings have now been upgraded to Amber for parts of southern Scotland and Northern England
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20 minutes ago, Ross90 said:
Weds looks more likely, yellow warnings out already and likely to be amber in some places if it doesn't get downgraded.
It does at present mate , no warnings issued just yet for Friday, a little harder to predict at this range especially when we are dealing with rapid intensification, the primary drivers being the vigorous low Wednesday and associated nuking jet stream
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For sure mate, a definite wiff of explosive cyclogenesis in the air as we run through Thursday into Friday. (1005mb down to 965mb Thursday noon to Friday noon - 40mb drop in 24hrs .. that is some drop in mslp)
Which will be the agency to drop a name on this Storm ?
GFS has the track slightly further north (Rockall > Forties) than the UKMet and ECM (Shannon > Dogger)
GFS model data 06z as presented in XCWeather, as a point of reference an 8mb pressure difference between north wales and south wales would deliver a solid F8 with gusts to F9+ from the west , Further north F10 + likely with gusts to 80mph+
UKMet and ECM have the storm track further south , but with the same level of intensity.Keeping an eye on the Met Maritime extended outlook , as Thursday into Friday should drop into the forecast horizon on this evening's update
The wraparound from the nw / n will introduce quite a drop in 850's , with precipitation likely turning increasingly wintery for higher ground for Scotland, NI, Northern England, with the chance to lower levels in the beefier showers
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23 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
yes day 10 is absolutely brilliant! hahahahah
Indeed , great eagle eyes there B81! Shetland and Orkney Isles dialling in some blizzards ..North is best on that chart ! Said potential needs to drop south a few hundred miles
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5 hours ago, CreweCold said:
They can get way south. Just not through the UK it seems. Often wonder how we see cold pools mixed out on a warming European continent late Feb yet can see -20 uppers survive the trip down to Texas.
lol ..just before the GFS 12z runs through the 18z pub run I thought I'd screen grab the precip charts for the monster PV almost reaching as far south as Florida.
Here it be ..... grab some Gulf of Mexico Lake effect Snow !!
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13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
AGW ender! Lol. I’ll post the pressure chart shortly, it’s t384 so a slowburner…..so it’s 100% nailed on! . Extraordinary event for the US if that happened. A double pv
and we are ‘mild’ in comparison. Look at that….never have seen a chart like that…and probably never will.
BFTP
For sure BFTP ... has the GFS dialled in some earth crust displacement ... the north pole now appears to be located somewhere around Kentucky ... how far south can super cooled 850's get ?
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The Beeb forecast for today has Ynys Mon down for light showers. The truth of the matter is again somewhat different .. another "soaker of a day" for most of us .... some Thunderstorm activity embedded though. It should dry up this afternoon.
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1 hour ago, keithlucky said:
Tuesday night chance of streamer setting up.
Yes one to keep a close eye on , Convergence now shown on the Fax Charts for Tuesday Noon (T+60)
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11 minutes ago, MP-R said:
It also ushered in a colder spell of sorts after a very mild month up to that point. In fact the coldest part of that winter fell between the 21st Jan and 10th Feb, so who knows, something similar could be in order this winter.
For sure mate , completely plausible.
Having spent 40 years chasing weather systems , I am still baffled and left scratching my head most of the time.
In a similar vane , quite often , when we are glued to the summer models, in the hunt for sun and heat when faced with the usual typical summer fare , it takes an ex hurricane winging its way past the UK to usher in some continental heat in its wake, adding some disruption to the norm can and will have some benefits in kind.
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17 minutes ago, Purga said:
Would be fun on the N Yorks Moors if this came off!
It would be almost 15 years to the day (Jan 17/18 2007) when Storm Kyrill unleashed all hell on the UK and northern Europe. Kyrill, if memory serves me correct bottomed out at 965mb, as it tracked across the UK, this "bomb" is down at 935MB in the North Sea. One attributes of Kyrill was the formation of a Sting Jet, with utter devastating consequences. One to keep a close eye on , especially if it re-appears on subsequent GFS updates (unlikely)
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16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Just about cold enough for snow especially on higher ground and it would lead to a mega northerly as the chink of PV cleared east, it also opens the door to the possibility of something more prolonged as pressure rises over Greenland
"Hunt for cold" is one thing but when the cold comes hunting for you is a different game all together. With a much amplified zonal pattern, commensurate with more Autumnal Synoptics, having the jet stream firing up on all 12 cylinders , and unleashing all hell at the UK, one can expect some rapid cyclogenesis to evolve, as per this wee Storm system, dropping from 975mb to 935mb in 24hrs. Whilst the GFS does have a flair for overamplifying these synoptics at range , certainly keeping a close eye on proceedings here. This system would deliver a solid F12 down the north sea, coupled with relatively low temps .. the wind chill associated with such a system would be ... quite bracing .. precipitation? everything.. including the kitchen sink .. lol
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The Beeb are a country mile off their local forecast for here
Windy . yes , currently F5 / F6 with gusts to F7 , variable cloud at low to mid level , but plenty of sun and blue sky, and warm in the sunny spells.
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Likewise for you Nan's neck of the woods
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31 minutes ago, liamtellis said:
My Nan who's in Deiniolen (nr Llanberis) was also saying the same - heavy rain there but nothing on the radar!
A weird one mate ,, perhaps when it's low level cloud dropping heavy drizzle , still lashing it down type , does not appear on the Radar. What has appeared on the radar is when the rain drops got a lot bigger .. i.e. the last 20 mins or so
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Lol .. Dop Radar has just woken up .. at least for what's been failing out of the sky for the past few mins
Storm Eunice - 18th February
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by StingJet
Latest Marine extended outlook indicative of a down grade for Niton & Portpatrick , south Culllercoats maintaining F9/F10
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/extended-outlook