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StingJet

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    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted · Edited by StingJet

    Another hot day on the Isle of Anglesey, the mercury peaked at 30degc yesterday (shaded garden), currently at 31degc, humidity starting to rise also.  Observations to the south and south west showing signs of the approaching LP System and associated weather fronts. Looking at the dop radar , could be a lively evening here. My thunder headache is kicking in

     

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    Model output discussion 11th July onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    All summer many have been moaning about the lack of sun...the lack of Heat...the lack of storms!! And hey presto just as we head into Autumn...we could be about to be hit by all 3!! Simply amazing....only in the UK Folks...only in the UK..

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    For sure mate ..  this is becoming the norm hey?   Summer synoptics in Autumn , Winter Synoptics in Spring , Autumn Synoptics in Summer   and just about anything else at any other time.   We just have one season now where anything goes  .. lol

    • Like 12

    Model output discussion 11th July onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by StingJet

    6 minutes ago, jon snow said:

    Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean hints at a plume to me, it certainly indicates a warm up…you know, I think I will throw a party when this miserable rancid anticyclonic cloud fest is over..y’all are invited! 
     

    charts are mixed up…I’m so much excited!  

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    lol .. slightly off topic Karl with my response here .. but perfect timing ..... I am just watching Robin Hood Prince of Thieves on iPlayer .. just as you posted .. Azim shouts "is there no sun in the curse'd country"   lmao

    • Like 8

    Model output discussion 11th July onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by StingJet

    7 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    Indeed the latest ecm op almost completely at odds with bbc weather for the week ahead forecast. Something’s gotta give.

    Was that the Phil Avery update mate ?  I'll have to re-watch it , could have sworn he was hinting at a quick return to settled HP conditions once the approaching trough had passed through  ..hmm

     

    Model output discussion 11th July onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by StingJet

    Happy to run with that Mike

    Still keeping a close eye on TS Henri ;
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    Following the Stormtrack on the GFS Ops, TS Henri transitioning to Hurricane status through tomorrow, with landfall around Long Island, thereafter transitioning back to a Tropical Depression over north-east US States, and final "Ex Trop" transition on approach to Nova Scotia.  The residual energy appears to absorbed over the North Atlantic into next week, south of Greenland. The net effect of low pressure over Greenland /Iceland appears to be helping our resident HP Cell stay firmly anchored to the UK, and the Jet Stream well to our north.  The pattern over the past few days has changed for us ,  we were seeing a breakdown of the HP on the run up to the BH weekend, where as now, generally fine weather has been extended through months end into the first week of September , then we may be facing a breakdown of the settled spell.

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    Model output discussion 11th July onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by StingJet

    9 hours ago, kold weather said:

    One more thing to throw into the mix is the development of Tropical storm Henri. Broadly the models haven't done a great job forecasting its southward extent and so Henri has managed to get into slightly warmer waters than some of the early cycles expected and therefore is stronger than predicted by quite a few of them already.

    Its worth noting that out of all the models on the 00z suite, the GFS has got one of the better grasps it appears on the background conditions. As per normal in recent years ECM has been nearing rubbish status with clocking TC development. Henri has a pretty good chance of becoming a hurricane Fri-Sun based on the current set-up predicted by the models that have more accurately got the set-up right so far.

    All this means I'd probably err closer to what the GFS is suggesting at this point as its likely handling the tropical injection coming early next week much better than the other models which broadly show only a very weak system (barely a TS) being absorbed and obviously the energy difference of a hurricane vs a weak TS is rather large!

     

    Roger that kw    there's the upgrade

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    Model output discussion 11th July onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    And to compare the two at 144hrs Mark...looks literally spot on.

    This is like compare the market.com

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    Yes mate quite literally ..comparing the slight changes run to run,  model v model,  that is a good outcome the 120 to 144 transition with the trough continuing its easterly track into europe, allowing the ridge to the north of the Uk to expand westwards , keeping the primary trough , south of Greenland at arms length for now 

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    Model output discussion 11th July onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by StingJet

    Yes Alderc , it would appear so , but as Matt eluded to earlier (re: Marco P post)  all models will struggle when having to factor in tropical air masses from ex TS / Hurricanes approaching the north east Atlantic. I have tracked these bad boys year on year, the net effect on our patch can produce negative and positive down stream effects.   Just an observation on the GFS 12z (runs end) , the remnants of "Henri"  pause for a day or two just east of the Azores, then commence a northerly track to the west of Eire , if this were to happen , there is potential for a southerly flow to permeate northwards over the UK ... aka Spanish Plume .

    Just early days thoughts at the moment, at this range ... but worth tracking , for at least how this eventually evolves .

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    Model output discussion 11th July onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Good post Mike,and just to point out the 3 tropical storms in the Atlantic currently are probably causing some major model headaches...Marco p pointed this out in his latest tweet.

    Edit .... There is just one TS over the Atlantic at present that being "Henri" , "Grace" is located over the Caribbean, and "Fred" is dropping copious amounts of rain over Georgia, as a TD... 
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    the impacts of "Henri" in our neck of the woods remains to be seen, as we run up to the BH Weekend ... GFS 12z Op depicts a nice cue ball hit on the north Atlantic trough sending it whistling towards Iceland , with the remnants of Henri heading SE towards Portugal, a much better evolution for the UK when compared to the 06z GFS OP

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    Model output discussion 11th July onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, kold weather said:

    One more thing to throw into the mix is the development of Tropical storm Henri. Broadly the models haven't done a great job forecasting its southward extent and so Henri has managed to get into slightly warmer waters than some of the early cycles expected and therefore is stronger than predicted by quite a few of them already.

    Its worth noting that out of all the models on the 00z suite, the GFS has got one of the better grasps it appears on the background conditions. As per normal in recent years ECM has been nearing rubbish status with clocking TC development. Henri has a pretty good chance of becoming a hurricane Fri-Sun based on the current set-up predicted by the models that have more accurately got the set-up right so far.

    All this means I'd probably err closer to what the GFS is suggesting at this point as its likely handling the tropical injection coming early next week much better than the other models which broadly show only a very weak system (barely a TS) being absorbed and obviously the energy difference of a hurricane vs a weak TS is rather large!

     

    One to keep a close eye on KW , for at present the proposed remnants of TS Henri once transitioned to "Ex Trop"  and subsequent absorption may hit the UK on BH Monday, as per the 06z GFS Op.

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    Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

    Guys, this isn't the thread (or anywhere else) to bemoan the quality of posts elsewhere. If you're not happy with the quality of posts in the model thread then either a) don't read it or b) make positive contributions in there yourself. 

    It was just an observation Nick , but your comments have been duly noted.

    Qualified Civil Engineer, IT Manager, ISO 9001 Quality Assurance Manager

    Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by StingJet

    26 minutes ago, northriding said:

    When does summer start? After the cold spring, we've had what seems like the first bout of a twofold autumn in our neck of the woods.

    Lol . we had decent spell here on the Isle of Anglesey end of July coinciding with NI's Temp record, quite Mediterranean for a few days, then August kicked in and straight in to Autumn ever since (and not the Indian Summer type).... 
    This cool and cloudy north-westerly now entrenched over the UK  has the "feels like temp" here today at 11 degc .... (expletive deletive), almost tempted to fire up the Central Heating, which would be a first for August as far back as I can remember.

    Still some light at the end of the tunnel come next week , when settled summer weather should see out what remains of this shambles of a summer for the most part.

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    Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by StingJet

    10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The ECM is poor and as bad as the UKMO.

    Upstream it’s flatter and makes nothing of the shortwave exiting Canada so down stream the troughing fails to elongate.

    Ironic just as the GEFS improved the ECM op is going in the other direction.

    Surface cold is blown away by day 5 from the most of the UK .

     

    Pretty much deju vue Nick from a couple of weeks ago where the ECM Op had a two day stint of dialling in mild sw'erlys for the UK for the back end of last week and this week, it resolved itself on later runs, aligning its OP with its Mean and GFS / UKMO Cold Easterly Solutions , which came to pass.

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