smithyweather

Losing all hope on seeing snow the cold keeps getting pushed east every run. This is so super dupere from brilliant with possible lying snow for 4 days to only 1 day of wet snow crap. Ugh all in 24 bloody hours.

Maybe they are just covering their backs. Or maybe Gavin is right and the sea temps will erode the cold, because it is still 11.8c at Castlerock. I am just basing my opinion on what normally happens and usually with -8c uppers we readily see snow right down to the beach so thats why I was surprised at them forecasting rain (not even sleet) seven miles inland (and at 50m) It is a really bad idea of them to forecast rain anyhow because it probably will snow and then people are going to be shocked when its not raining which is not on. I think they've done this before and I remember people ranting about how it was snowing when they forecast rain.

Well number 1 I thought it would be far colder than 5c, maybe 2c? Then I thought that we would see a window of heavy dry snow from 9pm Monday to 6pm Tuesday based on the current gfs run.

No its not. At midday they have heavy rain and 5c, with -8c uppers it should be easily snow. I can see why its not snowing at midnight tuesday but midday tuesday no.

I am talking about the daytime on Tuesday it has 5c and heavy rain. I'm still puzzled why they are forecasting rain even on Monday night because the GFS would suggest snow.

This is why i'm puzzled about the rain.

That forecast is so depressing. It was supposed to be really cold and then all out of nowhere that bullsuper duper mild came in, as if we don't have enough of that.

Met office hae me down for rain on Tuesday for some odd reason unbeknown to me. Looking at uppers it would easily suggest snow.

Could someone with ample knowledge please tell me why the met office are forecasting rain for low levels in Northern Ireland on Tuesday with -8c uppers??? (someone with no bias) I am puzzled to be honest because I would've thought -8c uppers would sustain snow to all levels. Funny they are also forecasting rain for western scotland too.

This is limavady's forecast for Tuesday. And this is the 850's and the dew points. LOLLOL... whatever Mind they do have a bit of snow in the night for Dungiven.

The Met office are full of onionse though, because they are forecasting sleet for me and I am 7 miles inland. Don't get that because the gfs has -8c uppers over me, how on earth can that be sleet! Looking at the models though you can see that it is quite clear that the models don't know how to handle it,even this far out. The uppers on Wednesday onwards keep changing by dramatic amounts on the 0z we had a max of 8c on Wednesday now we have a max of 3c on Wednesday, 4c on Thursday, 4c on Friday and 4c on Saturday. So it is looking like it is going to cool down but i'm really not sure whats going because its all a mess. TBH I don't know why the met office are forecasting sleet with uppers of -8c but anyway. Their maximum temperatures seem way off with 7c forecasted for Portrush which is complete tripe to me, I think they are going to look like right idiots to be honest because the gfs has us down for 3c on Tuesday not 7c! The met office are actually forecasting mostly rain for coleraine on Tuesday which seems a bit daft! But sure we'll just have to wait and see.

Temps are dropping from 4c at 3pm so it will probably be snow by 6pm, it actually shows blobs of snow at 6pm. My experience of these events usually involves a cold front coming through and the rain turning INSTANTLY to snow, i.e. once the -5c isotherm pulls through. So I don't think we will need to wait long once the -5c isotherm is through (and that will be through by 9am)

Well the snow really starts at about T69.

Never seen a 2c max with -1c uppers before.

We are back in business -8c uppers are back over us for Tuesday!! Max temp back down to 2c!

The cold spell is coming but the difference between the 6z and the 12z is quite substantial, on Thursday we have 7c maxes were-as we had 2c maxes in the last run. Uppers on Tuesday are upto -3c from -8c. In 6z we had -7c uppers right out to 10west right now the -7c upper line is out at the east of newcastle. To be honest i'm scratching my head thinking 'wtf'. Like how can the -7c line move over 200 miles like that. You would think aswell with us being further west and closer to Greenland that the cold air would end up over us instead of the north sea.

Well to be honest i'm not even gonna bother because i'm not sure what to think with that last run, it came out of nowhere. But previous runs - Snow would've fallen to all levels. (and the met office have even said that themselves). Current run - Snow above 300m. But i've got my fingers crossed it was a rouge run. I think if anything we are bound to see at least some improvement. But i've never seen it have such a dramatic change though. I'm not gonna lie I did expect some sort of a downgrade but to me that would've just been a shortening of the length of the cold spell by a few hours and a warming of uppers by like 2c at most.

Yea not gonna go in there again. Keep telling myself that I will get a good summary but never do.

oh my god that model thread is a nightmare, apparently Zonal is going to be starting soon and to be honest I think your man Ian Brown is taking this time to try and wind everyone up. He seems to be enjoying this. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that this run was a rouge one. Did anyone notice how all the posters on the model thread are from England aswell? Never noticed that until now, anywonder they are going on about sleet, they are talking about England!

I can't believe the difference though. The whole of this week the cold has been over us and then all of a sudden it gets pushed 200 miles east. Seems a bit much. Look at the difference between the 6z and the 12z From -8c to -3c. I don't think so. I'm not giving up yet because that was a really random flip, I will give hope that it returns to normal on the 18z. Look at what gibby just said! WTF!!! "To me this cold spell (with my 50 years experience) was only going to produce cold rain and sleet to all but the higher ground" Sorry but that is complete and utter nonsense.

Monday 3pm 850pha. H500 Dew points That is the furthest I am going because the 12z is disgusting for Tuesday.

Yea think I might just stick to the Northern Irand thread from now on. As I have said I try and get a good insight but it is so biased that its unbelieveable. People go on and on about Gibby but I don't think he is accurate. -7c uppers a let down! :o

I was just about to say. Them ones are doing my head in, they are awful. Think i'm gonna have to put a few of them on ignore now, I try and go on to get an image of each run but its so hard when none of them actually give a true representation of what is happening! For example, Some of them are saying a short cold snap with sleet at best when the met office have snow down for me!

Its good. Met office has snow on Tuesday forecast. "Turning very cold on Tuesday with some snow showers"

Your only about 10 miles from me then. Tbh you might see more snow but it won't lie. Even in 2010 there was only a wee bit up there. We are all wasting our time talking about this now, like you say we gotta wait to Sunday.