Summer Sun

The Brazilian model for November has updated it continues to signal an above average winter for temps and around average for rain

He was talking about Joe Bas`tardi not GP

Changeable Often wet & windy Cooler then milder http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131101

Washout weekend: Britain set for almost half a month's rain on SATURDAY http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/440326/Washout-weekend-Britain-set-for-almost-half-a-month-s-rain-on-SATURDAY After hellish storm - deluge on the way with half a month's rain in just two days! http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/348457/After-hellish-storm-deluge-on-the-way-with-half-a-month-s-rain-in-just-two-days-

No Idea I've come across that link before same name but I have no idea if its the same guy

Turning unsettledShowers C MediterraneanIssued: 0530hrs Friday 1st November 2013 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Fine across Balkans, Adriatic Region Today An area of rain is expected from northern Russia across the Baltic States into Sweden, northern Germany into the Low Countries, England and northern France. Fair and dry across Portugal into France and central and southern Germany. Cold and windy across Norway with snow showers in the north and rain showers in the south. A dry day across Finland. Expect a good deal of dry weather across southern Russia, Poland and across The Adriatic Region and across the Balkans. Dry as well across Italy but heavy showers are expected across Scilly. Fine across Sardinia, Corsica and the Balearics. Saturday More unsettled across Europe today with rain expected across Britain, France, Belgium, Holland, Denmark, southern Norway, Sweden, Germany and Austria. Colder with snow across northern Norway but a dry day across Finland. Much of Poland will be dry and dry across the Czech Republic across the Adriatic Region and the Balkans. Dry as well across much of Russia, The Baltic States into the Ukraine. Scattered showers are likely for northern Italy and around Scilly and Sardinia with southern Italy fair and dry. Dry across the Balearics and much of Spain and Portugal but rain will affect northern Spain and northern Portugal. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=EuropeanSummary

This all ties in very nicely with the met office's thoughts of a mild November

Latest from Gibby All models show a very unstable airflow over the UK with complex Low pressure systems moving across the UK from the West today and over the weekend. With little respite early next week either as a very strong Westerly flow with gales persists across Britain. There will be spells of heavy rain over all areas at times with sunshine and squally showers in between with little change to this to start next week either. GFS then shows very little change through the rest of it's run with a brief quieter spell shown on the operational as an area of High pressure moves across for a time when fog and frost become likely. However, it isn't many days before rain and wind return again from the west with rising temperatures. UKMO closes it's run today with a strong Westerly flow over all areas with adeep Low to the NNW. The strong winds are shown to carry troughs quickly East over the UK with spells of heavy rain and squally showers rushing on behind over all areas. Temperatures would be close to average. GEM keeps things very windy and potentially quite stormy at times in the North with fast moving troughs carrying spells of wind and rain East across the UK in temperatures close to or somewhat above average in the South, largely offset by the wind though. NAVGEM shows a less windy scenario but every bit as unsettled as Low pressure areas continue to cross East over Northern Britain with rain and showers at times in average temperatures. ECM is also very unsettled today with higher pressure arriving at Day 10. Forth the majority of next week and the weekend to follow it would be very windy and unsettled with rain or showers in a gusty and strong Westerly wind. Temperatures would be close to average before becoming a little colder ahead of the ridge moving in from the West at the start of the new week. The GFS Ensembles take up a very sine wave pattern in the South over the coming week before all areas see a massive spread between members in the second half of the run. Overall the pendulum swings towards an average above the long term mean but this will be offset by the strength of the mostly Westerly winds and rainfall which will continue off and on throughout the period. The Jet Stream continues to power across the Atlantic and over the UK for the reliable future providing the catalyst for powerful storm systems to form close to Northern Britain. The pattern becomes a little more diffuse late in the run today with rather less evidence of the migration to the North shown in yesterday's output. In Summary today the main difference is that the long fetch and very mild SW flow shown on yesterday's output for next week is much less marked this morning as less is made of the build of pressure to the South. As a result it's a case of deja-vu from the weekend's weather as further strong winds and troughs hurtle across the UK from the West on regular occasions bringing rain and squally showers in sequential order more or less throughout. Temperatures will be average or on the mild side though with all the wind it will not feel particularly warm especially when it is raining. http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

This is more like good old uncle Barty

Latest from Gibby mild or very mild for the next 5 to 7 days then becoming even milder with High pressure building over Europe sending winds back SW All models show the unstable and often strong Westerly flow with Low pressure areas and troughs spilling East across or near to the UK between now and next Tuesday. All areas will see periodic spells of rain and showers with squally winds. Temperatures will never be far from average but it will feel and possibly become a little colder for time on Sunday and Monday. On Tuesday an active warm front is shown to cross the UK with rain for many before a mild but windy Westerly flow sets up as we move towards midweek. GFS then takes us through a very changeable and wet period for a time before drier weather and very mild weather too in the South spreads further North and East late in the run on a backing wind towards the SW and South. UKMO closes it's run with a broad and strong West to South-west flow with mild weather and rain at times especially towards the North and West. GEM too shows strong and unstable Westerly winds with lower pressure overall meaning all areas will see further rain and showers in mild weather. Late in the run the weather may become milder still as the Westerly flow backs off to a long fetch SW flow with rain most likely then in the North and West. NAVGEM tonight expands High pressure up towards the South of Britain late next week with any rain then restricted to the far North with most of the UK enjoying mild temperatures if rather cloudy and misty conditions especially near Southern and Western coasts. ECM is yuk tonight if it's cold weather your after as next week looks like being mild and windy with rain at times across the UK. The last frame of the run indicates High pressure over France with a warm West or SW flow over the UK with rain at times in the North and West with the South and East seeing drier if rather cloudy but very mild weather. The GFS Ensembles show a very mild prospect tonight under incessant Westerly winds, strong at times with occasional rain. Later in the run if anything even milder weather is more likely rather than colder as High pressure to the South pushes winds more towards the SW rather than West. The Jet Stream is set to continue blowing West to east across the atlantic and the UK for the next week or so before the flow turns further North over Europe to make a SW to NE orientation North of the UK towards the end of the run. In Summary tonight there is little to say that hasn't been said already. A mild and eventually very mild period seems likely with a lot of rain from the close proximity of Low pressure in the next 5-7 days before High pressure building over Europe sends things even milder as winds back SW at the same time as sending rain bearing fronts further North to affect just the North and West later. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

UKMO showing a slight improvement for the south at t144 (Wednesday) with the high to our south just starting to edge up shifting the low further north

UKMO still going the less deep route

Last posted on September 20th not been on the forum since October 3rd

Autumn is flying by tomorrow marks the final 4 weeks of Autumn 2013 it hardly seems 5 minutes since we entered Autumn

Rain warnings in the south added for Sunday and Monday Issued at: 1016 on Thu 31 Oct 2013 Valid from: 1800 on Sun 3 Nov 2013 Valid to: 1200 on Mon 4 Nov 2013 Rain, heavy at times, is expected to spread eastwards across southern UK later on Sunday before clearing during Monday. This additional rainfall, following recent wet weather, means that the public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding. Chief Forecaster's assessment A frontal zone moving across the Atlantic this weekend is expected to extend eastwards across southern UK later on Sunday before clearing away southeastwards during Monday. Associated rain is likely to be heavy at times with accumulations typically between 10 and 20 mm and locally close to 30 mm. Conditions will also become rather windy in English Channel coastal areas where gales may develop for a time during Sunday evening and the early hours of Monday. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1383523200&regionName=uk

That was Jonathan Powell not Madden Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said that relentless gales could batter the country until the end of November. He said: “The jet stream is currently behaving like a stuck record, channelling whatever erupts out in the Atlantic right towards the UK. “So we could see a succession of ferocious and damaging storms rattling on right through to the end of November.†And he warned that temperatures will also drop through next month rapidly turning heavy downpours to snow.

The met office remain uninterested in anything cold for November all signals are still pointing to a mild November

Synopsis Upper trough will track eastwards across northern Britain through today, introducing much colder mid-levels. This atop warm SSTs will promote widespread convection, particularly where shortwave troughs enhance forced ascent. Discussion Convection will be ongoing throughout the forecast period across the highlighted areas, as cold-mid levels (-30C to -33C at 500mb) overspread relatively warm SSTs. The resultant very steep lapse rates, combined with a few hundred J/kg CAPE and ELTs down to -40C, suggests an active day for lightning across the SLGT, most likely in 'waves' as several shortwave troughs cross the area.30-40kts will allow cells to become well-organised, and given 30+kts LLS, local topography and slight coastal veering of surface winds, a funnel or waterspout is possible in this environment. Furthermore, hail perhaps greater than 2.0cm in diameter is possible from the strongest cells, along with the risk of local surface flooding from frequent heavy downpours. http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/293

Once GFS gets updated it could become more reliable again

Apparently we are going to see up-to 90mph gusts this weekend...............if you believe the express which I don't http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2823720

St Jude storm gusts and gales to continue for another month HOUSEHOLDS still recovering from the St Jude devastation were warned yesterday to prepare to batten down the hatches again. Britain is “in the firing line†for a month of devastating gales and torrential downpours raging on towards Decem­ber. The onslaught is due to start at the weekend with gusts of up to 90mph. And this time the North will be worst hit after the South was caught in the eye of Monday morning’s storm which caused widespread chaos and is expected to leave a bill of around £1billion. The death toll from St Jude – the worst storm in more than 10 years – stands at six with widespread damage. A couple who died after a building collapsed in Hounslow, west London, were named as IT contractor Suhail Akhtar, 46, and his girlfriend Dorota Kolasinska, 35. Mr Akhtar’s friend Sheldon Hawkshaw, 42, said: “He was a go-to guy. He had time for everyone, he always made us laugh and will be sorely missed.†Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said that relentless gales could batter the country until the end of November. He said: “The jet stream is currently behaving like a stuck record, channelling whatever erupts out in the Atlantic right towards the UK. “So we could see a succession of ferocious and damaging storms rattling on right through to the end of November.†And he warned that temperatures will also drop through next month rapidly turning heavy downpours to snow. http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/440017/St-Jude-storm-gusts-and-gales-to-continue-for-another-month

When has he ever got a forecast right for winter? every year its the same old stuff, mega snowfall, Siberian temperatures and now glaciers!

Which is why no one should believe a word he say's

12.8c to the 30th 2.1c above average

Latest text update from the met talks of strong winds but nothing on the scale of earlier this week Outlook for Saturday to Monday: Remaining changeable with strong winds, bright spells and showery outbreaks of rain over the weekend. Persistent rain in southern Britain on Monday but drier elsewhere. Feeling cold in the wind.