Summer Sun

GFS doesn't look as bad as this mornings runs Compared to the 00z UKMO still going for 980mb

With the met office expecting a mild November some places may not see any frosts to at least December http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2821728

Looks like the met office are going for a mild winter, though as you would expect even in milder winters occasional cold spells can't be ruled out For November-December-January above-average temperatures are considered more likely than below, though this signal is likely strongly influenced by the expected mild November. Overall the probability that the UK-mean temperature for November-December-January will be in the warmest of our five categories is close to 30% and the probability that it will fall into the coldest category is approximately 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). Tropical stratospheric conditions, meanwhile, are now in a strong westerly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation phase, which has an established link to autumn and winter time conditions over northwestern Europe, favouring positive North Atlantic Oscillation. Latest computer model forecasts indeed favour westerly or southwesterly atmospheric flow over northwestern Europe, including the UK. At this time of year this is typically associated with milder-, wetter- and stormier-than-average conditions In fact the forecast indicates a high probability of a milder November than that of last year. This is likely to be associated with lower-than-average incidence of overnight frost. Forecast curves for November-December-January indicate above-average temperatures more likely than below-average. However, even during milder winters occasional colder outbreaks can still occur more especially in December and January. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2821728

October update issued November to January Temperature There is a strong signal in the forecast for above-average November-mean temperatures. For November-December-January above-average temperatures are considered more likely than below, though this signal is likely strongly influenced by the expected mild November. Overall the probability that the UK-mean temperature for November-December-January will be in the warmest of our five categories is close to 30% and the probability that it will fall into the coldest category is approximately 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). There are currently no significant sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Pacific and therefore neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions prevail. In this respect computer models favour a continuation of neutral conditions during the coming months, leaving the influence of this as a forcing factor weak and not expected to contribute predictive value for conditions across Europe during the next three months. Across a large part of the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain largely above average, whilst further north Arctic sea ice has recently reached its annual minimum extent. Whilst well below the climatological average, this minimum extent was not as low as 2012’s record minimum. The greatest deficit relative to average appears to be over the northern Barents and Kara Seas. Whilst this may play some part in determining late autumn and early wintertime conditions over northern Europe, the predictive associations are not yet entirely clear. Tropical stratospheric conditions, meanwhile, are now in a strong westerly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation phase, which has an established link to autumn and winter time conditions over northwestern Europe, favouring positive North Atlantic Oscillation. Latest computer model forecasts indeed favour westerly or southwesterly atmospheric flow over northwestern Europe, including the UK. At this time of year this is typically associated with milder-, wetter- and stormier-than-average conditions. These influences are reflected in the forecast in Figure T2, which shows a strong signal for milder-than-average conditions in November. In fact the forecast indicates a high probability of a milder November than that of last year. This is likely to be associated with lower-than-average incidence of overnight frost. Forecast curves for November-December-January indicate above-average temperatures more likely than below-average. However, even during milder winters occasional colder outbreaks can still occur more especially in December and January. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/3/q/A3_plots-temp-NDJ.pdf Precipitation Indications are that precipitation in November is more likely to be above average than below average. For November-December-January as a whole the signal for precipitation is similar to climatology, with only a slightly higher probability of above-average than below-average rainfall. The probability that UK precipitation for November-December-January will fall into the driest of our five categories is close to 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is approximately 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). At this time of the year, climatologically speaking, Atlantic depressions are typically more intense, affect Britain more frequently and often carry large amounts of moisture making the late autumn and early winter one of the stormier and wetter parts of the year. As discussed in the temperature section, one atmospheric driver with known influence on predictability over northwestern Europe at this time of year is in a phase conducive to positive North Atlantic Oscillation. This typically favours wetter-than-average conditions, as well as an increased risk of windier periods or storms and heavy rainfall, over northwestern Europe during the late autumn and early winter. Later in this forecast period computer models show large spread, and hence increased uncertainty, concerning likely dominant synoptic types. Forecast curves for November show a strong signal for wetter-than-average conditions. With computer models signalling westerly or southwesterly flow for November as a whole, it is thought more likely than not that many northern and western parts of Britain would be wetter than in November 2012. For November-December-January as a whole the forecast favours above-average rainfall over below-average, with the probability of very wet conditions enhanced, and that for very dry conditions reduced, with respect to climatology. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/q/A3_plots-precip-NDJ.pdf

The BBC are reporting that 580,000 lost power during the storm 310,000 now have power again 270,000 homes are without power this afternoon

Monthly Outlook Summary A wild start, and remaining unsettled. With all eyes turning, understandably, to the approaching severe storm you will be forgiven for forgetting the weather we have been experiencing over the last few days. We have had a real mixed bag, in true autumn style. It has been noticeably mild - much warmer than we would expect for this time of year - peaking at 19.6C at Gravesend in Kent on Friday 25th October. It has also been wet; over 30mm of rain falling over the UK in all bar one day last week. All in all a fairly wet but mild week. Monday 28 October—Sunday 10 November Some like it windy The headline of the coming week is, without doubt, the severe storm expected to hit the British Isles through Sunday evening and into Monday morning. This rapidly deepening area of low pressure is expected to bring heavy rainfall to large swathes of England and Wales along with potentially damaging winds perhaps exceeding 80mph at times. Beyond Monday conditions, although remaining changeable, look like they should calm down from the stormy start to the week. Expect both showers and longer spells of rain during the week mixed with brighter periods in-between frontal systems. Temperatures will drop off slightly from what we have been basking in - closer to what we would expect for this time of year. Monday 4 November—Sunday 17 November Make sure your umbrella is in full working order. Further into the forecast period the main message stays the same; keep your brolly close to hand! At this stage the weather looks like giving us a typical autumnal pattern with plenty of wet and windy weather on the cards. Southern and Western parts look likely to see the worst of the rain with above average rainfall amounts expected here. The only element that is failing to recognise that it is autumn is the temperature which looks set to remain above what we would be expecting for this time of year, frosts during this time will be fairly unlikely. Monday 18 November—Sunday 1 December A little less unsettled in the south For the last few weeks there has been a consistent signal in the extended outlook of the forecast that pressure will gradually rise in southern regions of the UK. This should alleviate the worst of the rain and wind in this area and increasingly push Atlantic frontal systems to northern regions. Temperatures through this period will be a little above the seasonal norm meaning that there is a fairly low risk of overnight frosts during this period. Next week The weather remains very unsettled at the moment, and it looks like this will continue into the new month. But will bonfire night be a damp squib? http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Nov 2013 to Tuesday 26 Nov 2013: Early November's mostly unsettled conditions are thought likely to persist across northern and western regions. As such rainfall amounts here are more likely than not to be above average and conditions may also be quite windy at times. Further south and east rainfall accumulations are considered likely to be nearer average, implying slightly more changeable conditions with drier, brighter periods interspersed with more unsettled bouts of weather. Taking the country as a whole, temperatures during this period are more likely than not to be near, or perhaps above average throughout, leading to a lower risk of overnight frost than can usually be expected at this time of year. Updated: 1201 on Mon 28 Oct 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Saturday 2 Nov 2013 to Monday 11 Nov 2013: Stay unsettled this weekend with showers or longer spells of rain sweeping northwards, with heavy and squally showers following. Remaining windy with a risk of gales and a chance of severe gales on some coasts. Unsettled and often windy weather persisting thereafter, with the risk of gales continuing in the north and west. Showers over Scottish mountains may then turn wintry at times. Perhaps also turning a little colder than of late early next week. Otherwise, temperatures generally staying around average for early November. This will, of course, be tempered by the wind and unsettled feel to the weather and therefore there is expected to be less frost than is normal for early November. Later in the period, there are indications that southern or southeastern areas may turn less unsettled. Updated: 1159 on Mon 28 Oct 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Wind is picking up slightly now as the low pulls away towards Denmark

UKMO has the centre less deep and further south ECM is similar

Search for boy off Newhaven's West Beach called off Coastguards will not resume a search for a schoolboy swept away from an East Sussex beach. The 14-year-old Dylan Alkins had been swimming with friends off Newhaven's West Beach on Sunday when police said he was "swept away by the current". Coastguards said they would not restart the search for the boy unless they received new information from police. A spokesman for the Maritime and Coastguard Agency said the "matter was now a police one". The Newhaven RNLI lifeboat and a coastguard helicopter took part in the search in "atrocious conditions". A lifeboat crew member suffered bruising and the boat itself was damaged by large waves during the operation on Sunday. Alan Novis, press officer for the Newhaven lifeboat, said the crew "battled some very challenging conditions, doing everything possible with our coastguard colleagues on the beaches and in the air to try and locate the missing boy". He added it was a "very distressing incident" and the crew's thoughts were with the boy's family at this time. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-24700017

Amber warnings for the UK were cancelled at 10:22 this morning Issued at: 1022 on Mon 28 Oct 2013 Valid from: 0005 on Mon 28 Oct 2013 Valid to: 1200 on Mon 28 Oct 2013 The Amber warning for wind is now cancelled as the damaging severe gales have now eased. Chief Forecaster's assessment The vigorous low pressure area that caused the widespread severe gales across southern Britain earlier today has now moved out into the North Sea taking the strongest of the winds away with it. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=uk&fcTime=1382918400

Unsettled and Often Windy Rain and Showers Near-Normal Temperatures http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131028

The first red circle says DMI alert elevated water levels at the west coast The 2nd says DMI alert storm The 3rd line with no circle reads Storm Low pressure passing Denmark, many places with gusts of hurricane strength

Yeah but yesterday the CET was 13.2c to the 26th and 2.2 above average Today its 13.1c to the 27th so it can't be 2.3c above average

GFS has it deepest (965mb) ECM (985mb) and UKMO (980mb) GFS has the centre of the low over Scotland ECM and UKMO have the centre a lot further south

13.1c to the 27th someone can't count as they have it 2.3c above average instead it should be 2.1c above average

2nd person killed by the storm and a 14 year old lad remains missing at sea A teenager in Kent and a man in Watford have been killed by falling trees as a storm batters parts of Britain. Around 220,000 homes are without power, while rail services across much of southern Britain have been cancelled as high winds bought down trees. Network Rail said the damage was "worse than expected," while 130 flights have been cancelled at Heathrow airport. The Met Office said a gust of 99mph (159km/h) was recorded at Needles Old Battery, Isle of Wight, at 05:00 GMT. A 17-year-old girl suffered fatal injuries when the tree came down where she was sleeping in Hever, Edenbridge, at about 07:20 GMT. A man in 50s was pronounced dead at the scene after a tree crushed a red Peugot 307 at Lower High Street in Watford at 6:50 GMT. Next-of-kin have been informed. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24699748

Not a lot I would imagine they get snow like that every year

As expected we have avoided the worst, light winds since last night and just 4.1mm of rain NMM suggested we'd miss the worst of the rain and it was right. It should brighten up as the day goes on 12pm onwards is the best chance for some sunshine

Windy, wetDry across BalkansIssued: 0530hrs Monday 27 October 2013 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Stormy Northern Europe Today A stormy day to come across southern England, The Low Countries and northern France with storm force wind. Heavy rain in the south of England spreads north replaced by showers. Outbreaks of rain will also affect Belgium, Holland, Denmark and Germany. Much of France will be fair and dry with the best of the sunshine in the south and some rain in the far north. Unsettled with an area of rain expected across Norway, Sweden and this looks to become heavy across Finland down through the Baltic States into Belarus and Russia. Apart from a few showers in the east, much of Poland should be fair and dry. High pressure will keep Ukraine, Romania, the Adriatic Region and the Balkans settled and dry with sunny spells. Perhaps more cloud today across Italy but it should remain mainly dry. Mostly sunny across Corsica, Sardinia, the Balearics and much of Spain while rain moves into Portugal in the afternoon. Tuesday A wind day across northern Europe and also across southern France. Sunnier and drier across Britain and northern France. A few sharp showers will affect Belgium, Holland and Denmark. Colder across Norway with sunny spells and a few snow showers in the west. Dry across Sweden with sunny spells while rain is forecast across Finland and showers for the Baltic States. An area of rain is expected across southern France, The Alps and Austria. It stays fine and dry across the Adriatic Region and across the Balkans. Sunny and dry across Turkey, Greece and Italy. Cloudy with rain into the Balearics with a risk of showers for eastern parts of Spain. Portugal and western Spain will be dry and sunnier. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20131028

Looks like the posting of images has been disabled whilst the forum is busy Latest from Gibby With the major storm system blowing itself away from SE as I type all models show that the weather reverts to a more standard form of Westerly winds, sunshine and showers. Some of the showers will be heavy and squally and perhaps with thunder. All models then show a brief quieter spell towards midweek as a weak ridge crosses East. However, this is looking increasingly short-lived even for the South as further deep Low pressure moves in from the West and bring spells of strong to gale force winds and heavy rain and squally showers at times in time for the weekend. It will also feel much chillier than of late. GFS then moves through it's second part with continued unsettled and often windy weather with spells of rain and squally showers mixed with very brief drier interludes. UKMO today closes it's run with a deep Low over the Irish Sea with strong cyclonic winds around Britain with spells of heavy rain and showers and brief sunny intervals. It will feel rather colder than of late. GEM today also shows a very deep Low over the UK next weekend followed by a rather cold and unstable NW then West flow, still strong. Rain will be most prevalent over the weekend and the start of the new week before more Southern areas see rather less late in the run. It will feel very chilly in the wind. NAVGEM shows an unsettled period too with rain and strong winds at times as Low pressure top and tails the UK at the end of it's run. ECM shows unsettled weather too with strong winds at times as low pressure spirals across the UK at the weekend. Thereafter and into the new week further wet and windy weather looks distinctly possible as winds remain strong to gale westerly at times with rain at times. The GFS Ensembles show a very mediocre pattern as far as temperatures are concerned with temperatures alternating somewhat above and below the average. Rainfall and wind strengths remain the biggest factors over the UK with frequent bouts of rain and strong winds shown for all. The Jet Stream remains the major driving force of the UK weather over the period with s very strong flow over the Atlantic and crossing East in the vicinity of the British Isles maintained for a considerable time to come. In Summary the storm of the last 24 hours may be moving away this morning but the prospect of further very windy weather with strong gusts remains a risk over the next few weeks. With a very powerful Jet stream looking determined to continue roaring across the Atlantic towards Britain further deep low pressure later this week could provide the ingredients for some more disruption in places. In addition rainfall is looking copious and flooding will inevitably become an ingredient towards media coverage as the period of this run evolves. http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

First Capital connect have just announced they have cancelled all trains for today whether this changes later today who knows but as of 09:46 no FCC services will run until tomorrow morning at the earliest

Highest gusts so far is just under 100mph Gusts of 99mph have been recorded at the Needles on the Isle of Wight, according to the Met Office, while the Environment Agency has put in place 16 flood warnings and 133 flood alerts. Winds have topped 80mph along southern coastal areas, becoming turbulent inland also reaching 75mph in Yeovilton in Somerset and 79mph at Andrewsfield in Essex. And we can now see why trains got cancelled yesterday http://media.skynews.com/media/images/generated/2013/10/28/267313/default/v2/tree-on-train-lines-1-522x293.jpg

984mb low just west of the UK now