Summer Sun

Rainfall totals look like they'll be worst in the west on Monday

Rainfall totals look like they'll be worst in the west on Monday

It still looks like the Kent coast is going to cop the worst of the winds later on Monday with the strongest gusts in the English channel but with the way the Kent coast sticks out this areas looks like it could see the worst of the winds

Daily Mirror front page tomorrow Daily Express front page

Latest from Gibby All models show an unsettled and breezy weekend with a steady deterioration in conditions as the weekend evolves. A Brisk showery SW flow over Western and Northern Britain will weaken overnight as winds decrease. A window of drier weather tomorrow will be superseded by a trough of low pressure crossing ESE across the UK with a band of heavy rain and squally winds crossing the UK tomorrow afternoon and night. Following that a very strong WSW showery flow will affect the UK through Sunday with gales in the North and West and showers heavy with hail and thunder in places. THE STORM SYSTEM GFS takes the storm across Wales and the Midlands at a pressure of 975mbs falling to 970mbs as it exits Eastern England. All of Southern Britain would be affected by winds with gusts to 70mph + in exposed locations and near Bristol Channel and English Channel Coasts. UKMO has the low a little more south tonight tracking into the Bristol channel at 980mbs in the early hours of Monday morning and exiting the east Coast at 970mbs with the strongest 70mph+ winds affecting English Channel coasts worst of all. GEM has the Low entering SW England at 985mbs in the early hours of Monday and exiting the East Norfolk coast at 970mbs with the strongest winds here in the Eastern English Channel but less problematical for many Southern areas. NAVGEM shows the Low more vigorous with it's centre sub 970mbs in the Bristol Channel on Monday morning and down to below 965mbs as it leaves the Humber coast. All of Southern Britain would likely be affected by storm force winds with gusts to 70-80mph for a time through Monday. ECM shows the Low crossing Wales on Monday morning and on ENE into the North Sea on Monday afternoon with severe gales or storm force winds buffeting the South of England and South Wales through the day. Following the storm GFS settles things down quite quickly as pressure rises rapidly from the West and a ridge crosses the UK midweek. This doesn't last long in the North but holds on in the South with a drier spell before a weakening cold front brings a spell of rain SE for all. Again pressure recovers in the South and a further drier interlude develops down here which in turn is quickly displaced by a return to Autumnal wind and rain from deep depressions crossing East to the North of Scotland. UKMO shows pressure relatively High over the South from midweek but with a mild, moist and quite strong Westerly flow thick cloud and rain and drizzle is likely with the North seeing some heavier rain at times. GEM has only minimal improvements next week with a strong Westerly flow with rain at times maintained with temperatures close to average. Later in the run a cold incursion is likely with a spell of Northerly winds with wintry showers across northern areas for a time and some night frost. This proves very temporary though as mild Atlantic winds flood back along with Low pressure with rain at times in strong breezes. NAVGEM shows pressure building to the South of the UK warding off the worst of Low pressure further North to principally continue to affect the North of the UK. The South is shown drier but not entirely so as a front is shown to get hung up over Southern Britain with rain at times with High pressure building strongly close to the West. ECM tonight shows a continued changeable and sometimes windy theme as winds remain Westerly. pressure does build midweek across the South with a calmer spell here before all areas become prone to active Atlantic low pressure areas moving across the North of the UK with troughs bringing frequent bouts of rain and showers for all. It then looks like becoming colder from the North on Day 10. The GFS Ensembles do maintain an unsettled and changeable picture with rain at times and winds blowing strongly at times too. Temperatures are likely to remain quite close to average overall but there could be some milder interludes in the South and the increasing chance of some colder incursions of air from the North later. The Jet Stream continues to look like blowing strongly across the Atlantic and across the UK for the reliable future. It will fluctuate North and South of this general position at times in response to deep lows crossing East to the North and higher pressure to the South of the UK. In Summary the storm system on Monday is the main talking point and there is still some differences of opinion on the course of the Low. once passed the weather quickly calms to a more standard Autumn pattern of Low pressure to the North and higher pressure to the South giving these areas at least a window of drier weather next week. In the longer term conditions look like remaining or becoming changeable for all with rain and wind at times and temperatures never far from average but the North may see some colder incursions later and these may extend a little further South at times. http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

The models still don't know where this low will place its self ECM UKMO Both 970mb but a big difference on the placement of the centre GFS more in line with UKMO GEM also has it at 970 and east of the UK NAVGEM is the deepest so far at 965mb So for the placement of the low out of the big 3 2 have it east of the UK whilst ECM is on its own having it over the UK

970mb low from ECM

Looking at GFS high res You get gusts topping the high 60's mph till early Monday morning then from 09:00 they ease At this stage the worst is out in the channel sparing the UK the worst though the Kent coast may be the one exception for mainland England I wouldn't like to be crossing to France on the ferry on Monday

Rivers here are coping quite well tbh yes its high but it has been a lot higher (especially the end of last year)

2nd chart northerly winds yes

I don't think the flooding (if we get it) would be too bad mostly temporary surface water flooding worst areas would be at bottom of hills ect

Its because the likes of London are in danger from strong winds (highly populated areas) if this was heading for Scotland would we get as much coverage so early? I doubt it as storms are nothing new for this part of the UK, for the south they are quite unusual on this scale. re to the rain you were talking about the met have heavy rain from 03:00 to 09:00 for us then it dies away http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/darlington-darlington#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1382918400

Latest from the BBC 1 news South of the Humber 60 to 80mph gusts possibly higher in parts (those most exposed I would think) some heavy rain around as well As for Scotland and Northern Ireland at this stage you can just sit back and relax with everything looking quiet here

GEM has it furthest south so far hopefully others will follow its route

UKMO also showing a more settled end to October in the south with any low pressure systems back in there usual place tracking north of Scotland

UKMO 12z out If UKMO is right it could peak east of the UK spearing us the worst

Looks like this storm will be some where around the one in 2007

Only appeared on the beebs Facebook page around 16:25

They've had 3 front page stories on this storm this week Tuesday Thursday Today

Latest text forecast from the met Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday: Very unsettled with sunny spells, squally showers and strong winds throughout. Turning very stormy in the south early on Monday with heavy rain and very strong, potentially damaging, winds.

Weather system to 'pack a punch' on Monday Strong winds and heavy rain predicted for Monday could cause disruption across Wales and southern England, according to forecasters. The Met Office issued an amber alert for wind and there is also concern that heavy rain could cause flooding. It warned people to "be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures" caused by strong winds. Nick Miller explains where and when the storm is predicted to hit. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24671796 Its in and out extremely quickly but packs a punch whilst its here

October ends with the next low crossing north of Scotland this time with high pressure in the right place to keep the worst of it away from the UK

BBC News on Facebook have just issued this

This storm looks nasty and short lived with the south still looking like getting the worst of the winds by Tuesday its the clam after the storm 13:00 Monday 13:00 Tuesday 19:00 Tuesday 01:00 Wednesday 07:00 Wednesday So once this storm wizzes through on Monday we should see high pressure building up from southern Europe giving us some settled weather after what could be the stormiest day in the south for decades

GFS has the low peaking at 970mb early afternoon on Monday Before it quickly pulls away Wet for many I make his post 667 and yours 668?