Summer Sun

970mb low from ECM this evening UKMO and GFS to compare the big 3 at t96

UKMO and GFS have the centre of the low in the south but NAVGEM has it over Scotland GEM has the centre of the low developing way out east

This looks like its going to be a short lived nasty low with it pulling away quite quickly 06z Monday 18z Monday By t120 its the clam after the storm Rainfall totals to 18:00 Monday I think the potential for surface water flooding is quite high but no major flooding at this stage

This looks like its going to be a short lived nasty low with it pulling away quite quickly 06z Monday 18z Monday By t120 its the clam after the storm UKMO at t96 GFS to compare

Wind speeds still strongest along the south coast the further north you are the better it will be Some torrential rain with this system for the south as well bringing a very high risk of flash flooding to many areas Rainfall totals to 18:00 Monday

GFS 12z out to midday Sunday now By Monday 00z the low in the SW is down to 985mb Deepens to 975mb over the SE Just about identical to the 06z run so far

The met office have issued a map for this possible storm on Monday showing where is most likely to be affected

At the moment this is the track the met office think it will take At the moment it looks as if Scotland and Northern Ireland will miss this storm What still remains unknown is where the centre of the low will reach its deepest if its just to west or east of the UK we may avoid the worst of it if not then it could be a nasty storm, just a good job the kids are off school next week

Impossible to estimate yet this storm isn't nailed on to hit the UK yet It could miss us altogether and hit France It could continue to downgrade like GFS did this morning We won't know for certain till the 12z's on Saturday

UK Outlook for Friday 8 Nov 2013 to Friday 22 Nov 2013: The mostly unsettled conditions are expected to continue for much of this period, with a trend for rainfall amounts to be slightly above average in the north and west but nearer to average in the south and east. Temperatures during this period are more likely to be near, or perhaps, a little above average throughout, leading to a lower risk of frost than can usually be expected at this time of year. There are some indications that towards the end of the period, slightly drier and more settled conditions further south would bring an increased risk of overnight frost, with fog which may be slow to clear at times. Updated: 1258 on Thu 24 Oct 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Tuesday 29 Oct 2013 to Thursday 7 Nov 2013: Monday's storm will have pushed out into the North Sea by early Tuesday leaving the UK in a brighter and showery northwesterly airstream. However, it will be rather windy, and feeling much colder than of late, with a touch of frost across many parts overnight as the winds ease. After a dry and bright start on Wednesday, rain and strengthening winds will push in from the west and this will herald the change back to unsettled and milder conditions which will prevail thereafter. Showers or longer outbreaks of rain, locally heavy, will affect many areas, especially the north and west, with strong winds and gales also likely in the west at times. The best drier and brighter interludes will be across southeastern parts, but this may allow occasional fog overnight. Updated: 1213 on Thu 24 Oct 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Whilst London and the SE is under an amber warning for strong winds on Monday we have a lesser yellow warning for rain Issued at: 1134 on Thu 24 Oct 2013 Valid from: 0000 on Mon 28 Oct 2013 Valid to: 2359 on Mon 28 Oct 2013 A spell of persistent heavy rainfall is likely to spread across northern parts of both Wales and England during Monday. The public should be aware of the potential for surface water flooding Chief Forecaster's assessment A rapidly deepening depression is expected to track across Britain on Monday, bringing heavy rain and strong winds to many areas of England and Wales. The most likely outcome at this stage is that northern parts of England and north Wales should escape the worst of the wind (see the separate wind warnings if you are traveling southwards) but will be affected by some intense rainfall. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=ne&fcTime=1382918400

They've probably only issued this amber warning so early because London and the SE is affected (highly populated areas) Storm warning for south of England The Met Office has warned that a storm forecast for Monday could cause disruption in the south of England. An amber alert for wind has been issued and there is also concern that heavy rain could cause flooding. The Met Office said the public in the affected area "should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures" caused by strong winds. There is uncertainty about the timing of the storm at this stage. Colin Seddon from the BBC Weather Centre said it "is certainly the worst storm we've seen this year". He said there is potential for gusts of wind over 80mph, especially on exposed coasts in Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Hampshire, West Sussex, East Sussex and Kent. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24654390

Monday is very uncertain still with two 985mb lows over us Thankfully wind speeds remain fairly low for many inland areas with only coastal districts prone to stronger winds

Apparently the Met Office has issued "extreme weather warnings" as 90mph gales threaten to lash coastal regions, with 80mph winds uprooting trees and ­damaging buildings inland. I must be missing something as I can't see any "extreme weather warnings" of course it had to be in today's Daily Express http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/438817/Lightning-strikes-as-biggest-storm-since-1987-sweeps-in

Of course current thinking seems to be it will affect the south but I remember a few years back one was due to hit the south but in the end it went across France, Holland ect and missed the UK

Portugal heavy rainScandinavian windIssued: 0530hrs Thursday 24th October 2013 Duty forecaster: Garry Nicholson Fine conditions in the eastern Mediterranean Thursday Heavy and persistent rain affect Portugal and western Spain during Thursday. Drier conditions in central and eastern Spain with sunny spells. A fair amount of cloud across the Balearics and Italy, with some showers at times. Southern Italy is brighter, with fine and dry conditions extending through Greece and Turkey with plenty of sunshine. Cloudy skies for western France with brighter conditions further east. Central Europe is mostly dry with sunny spells for Germany and Switzerland. More cloud extends across Austria, Hungary and eastern Europe. A brisk westerly wind affects Scandinavia, with showers for Denmark and Norway. Outbreaks of rain affect Sweden and Finland at times too. Friday Cloudy skies affect much of Iberia, with outbreaks of rain still persistent, occasionally heavy in central Spain. A few showers for Portugal, but drier along the Mediterranean costas. Dry conditions extend across the Mediterranean, with good sunny spells for Italy, Greece and Turkey. Cloud and outbreaks of rain also affect France during Friday, with cloudy skies extending into Germany and Belgium. A few sunny spells across the Alps and it stays dry in Switzerland and Austria. Better chance of sunshine in eastern Europe, for Poland and Hungary in particular. Ukraine likely to see more cloud. Denmark will see fair conditions during the day, with better conditions also extending into Norway and Sweden through Friday, with lighter winds and good sunny spells. Winds increase in Norway later and rain spreads into the west by evening. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20131024

Latest from Gibby All models show Low pressure moving up towards Ireland from the SW over the next 34 hours or so. A ridge of High pressure today will keep most places dry and bright with cloud and a freshening SE breeze reaching the SW by dusk. Rain follows NE and reaches most areas by tomorrow with clearer, mild and showers conditions affecting the South tomorrow while the North stays wet. Through the weekend further troughs advance East off the Atlantic with a rash of showers and strong winds or all later Saturday and Sunday. On Sunday night and into Monday the jury seems to remain out on the potential for a stormy spell of weather as a small, fast moving but significant Low moves East across the South with severe gales, heavy rain and then squally showers rattling through. It will feel rather cold over the UK through this period. GFS then shows a rapid pressure rise with a ridge crossing East over the UK midweek with drier , quieter and less rainy weather with the South probably becoming completely dry for a time. Elsewhere mild SW winds return with some rain at times, occasionally reaching the SE on weakening cold fronts as they pass. Later in the run High pressure plays a bigger role over the South for a time, extending in from Europe with frost and fog patches night and morning. The North sees more injections of mild Atlantic SW winds and rain which occasionally still reaches down into the SE. Temperatures throughout would be rather mild in the SW flows but occasionally rather chilly behind cold fronts and any clear nights in the drier spells across the misty South. UKMO this morning shows a weak ridge of High pressure crossing the UK following the very disturbed and stormy period of early in the week. As a result a dry and quiet day is expected next Wednesday before fronts and a renewed injection of SW winds bring further rain back across the North and West especially soon after Day 6. GEM shows just a squally trough rather than a storm moving quickly East on Monday. Pressure is then shown to rise, especially across the South with a lot of dry and rather mild weather developing thereafter with High pressure held over Europe while the North keeps the Atlantic onslaught going with wind and rain moving West to East at times. Temperatures look to be near or rather above normal in the South later and far from cold in the unsettled North as well. NAVGEM makes little or nothing of the storm early in the week with just a strong blustery conventional Westerly flow carrying a mix of sunshine and squally showers up to midweek. Thereafter it does differ somewhat in as much as it prefers to keep Low pressure close to all of the British Isles with attendant rain and showers continuing for all in average temperatures. ECM does whistle a rapidly deepening Low across the South on Monday morning with the risk of severe gales in the extreme South while the general pattern of unsettled and strong wind weather pattern remains in place throughout next week with a drier interlude possible around midweek. The GFS Ensembles show a typically unsettled and Autumnal pattern with an oscillating set of members pulsing on the mild and cold side of average throughout though never markedly so. As a result the general consensus is that the weather will remain Atlantic based with rain at times throughout the next few weeks with little to be relied upon dry and settled weather. Temperatures should remain near, or just above and below the long term mean throughout. The Jet Stream is currently positioning itself over the Atlantic and the UK once tomorrows Low has moved North and become absorbed in the Atlantic flow. It doesn't look like straying far from that position either anytime soon blowing very strongly at times. In Summary the main talking point is how the development of Sunday/Monday storm system develops if at all and where. Little is any clearer today with some output ignoring any chance at all while ECM , UKMO and ECM show potential for a short but worrying period when storm force winds are possible over the highly populated South on Monday. Things then look like settling down briefly midweek but there is plenty of support for the Atlantic to quickly regain momentum with further wind and rain likely for all. It does look like there is a chance of some more prolonged drier interludes in the South later where mist, fog and frost may develop briefly but overall there is nothing for 'cold lovers' to hang there hopes on while the Atlantic stays in such vigorous mode and High pressure remains over Southern Europe. http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

At this stage it looks like an event for the south this is the north east England text forecast Outlook for Saturday to Monday: Generally very unsettled and sometimes very windy through this period, with successive spells of rain sweeping in from the west, separated by brighter but showery weather. And the UK one Outlook for Saturday to Monday: Dry in places on Saturday before rain and strong winds return later. Sunshine, showers and strong winds on Sunday. Potentially turning very stormy on Monday, particularly across southern areas. And Northern Ireland's Outlook for Saturday to Monday: Drier, brighter start to Saturday then wet and windy. Bright interludes and heavy showers on Sunday and still quite windy. Drier with sunny spells and lighter winds on Monday.

GFS ensemble has the centre of the low at 970mb north of Scotland As does the ECM ensemble The Met office give Darlo a max gust speed of 37mph for Monday hopefully that's the worst it will get

Tomorrow

Latest from Gibby All models show a sustained spell of unsettled weather for the coming few weeks. In the short term a ridge of High pressure tomorrow will be swept away by Low pressure moving up across the UK from the SW on Friday and then becoming absorbed into a strong to gale West to SW flow across the UK with a wet day Friday blending into an equally wet weekend with showers or longer spells of rain with temperatures somewhat lower than of late. By Monday the models diverge as the potential for a major storm system approaching the UK develops and is handled differently by each of the models. GFS takes this development directly over Southern England with severe gales carried away from the UK to Northern France although a lot ofrain would be likely instead as it passes over. Pressure rises steadily then with sunshine and showers through the middle of the week. Winds then back SW with milder air sweeping back NE over Britain with rain and drizzle over the North and West. This pattern of alternating mild and changeable weather with drier and brighter spells in the South at times continues throughout the rest of the run with at no point anything particularly cold shown. UKMO tonight looks very stormy Sunday night into Monday as it has the storm system crossing Central England with severe gales over Southern England and Wales. Behind that the rain and showers will continue but with winds decreasing steadily towards the middle of the week with temperatures feeling rather cold. GEM shows virtually no development of this storm at all and just sends a normal if powerful enough in itself storm across the far North with strong to gale Westerly winds and showers and longer spells of rain with snow on Scottish hills. Further changeable weather is then expected over the remainder of the run with temperatures close to or a little below average but with slacker Low pressure by the end of the run. NAVGEM takes the less intense storm over Scotland and therefore is less disruptive to infrastructure over Britain while carrying a spell of rain and strong winds for all. Thereafter, it stays windy and relatively unsettled with further rain at times and average temperatures. The GFS Ensembles tonight look like a colder and very squally and wet period is to come before things moderate somewhat in terms of wind and rainfall from the middle of next week. Temperatures then stay broadly closer to average with more occasional rain and with fairly brisk winds still likely. The Jet Stream is blowing very strongly over the Atlantic towards the British Isles currently and doesn't look like weakening or moving trajectory or latitude anytime soon. In Summary the potential for a severe weather event at the end of the weekend remains tonight. Embryonic signs of a depression way out over the Atlantic will get caught up in our Jet flow with the potential for it then to develop explosively as it approaches the weekend at the end of the weekend. the event is by no means certain and may just blend into the general weather picture of wet and windy weather with sunshine and showers in between. As we move through the middle and end of next week and beyond prospects are still very uncertain though it looks more likely that no cold, frosty or foggy weather is likely in the near future. http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

The only problem now though is flooding seems inevitable in places which is not good news

UKMO pulls the low away pretty quickly

Just as GFS moves towards ECM UKMO throws us this GFS Anyone's guess still for t120