Summer Sun

Mild Then Perhaps Colder Unsettled for Much of the Week Often Windy, Gales in South Monday http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131020

Its all quiet now on the radar for us in the NE only real action now is down in the south west

Latest from Gibby Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday October 19th 2013.All models show Low pressure remaining in control of the weather over the UK through the next week. Innitially, centres to the West and then NW will keep mild SW winds blowing across the UK carrying spells of rain and thundery showers NE at times. later next week sees most models with a new Low feeding up from the SW approaches, crossing England and Wales and giving a good deal of rain in places with temperatures decreasing to more average levels by next weekend. GFS then shows a ridge of High pressure building over Northern Britain with dry, cooler and brighter weather while a hang-back of Low pressure over the South maintains unsettled weather here through the weekend too. Through the latter half of the run SE winds bring rather warm air NW from Europe and while very breezy with a lot of cloud temperatures would again be well above average before more unsettled and cooler weather spills back in off the Atlantic late in the run over the North with a cooler Autumnal quiet spell developing right at the end. UKMO shows a marked cold front pushing South next Friday on the rear side of an exiting Low pressure to the East. A band of heavy showers or more persistent rain will move South over England and Wales through the day with colder and brighter weather following with some sunshine and just more scattered showers in the North. GEM evolves into a very stormy period after next weekend as a vicious system of Low pressure crosses NE over England with storm force winds briefly coupled with heavy rainfall before things calm somewhat but still with rain at times in trailing Low pressure over the British Isles. Temperatures would fall back to average levels beyond the first week. NAVGEM shows pressure rising later next week and weekend from the South with dry and fine weather extending across Southern areas. Northern areas will stay more unsettled but generally mild with some rain at times in fresher West or SW winds. ECM shows a brief drier interlude too later next weekend before the Atlantic wind and rain returns, this time with somewhat lower temperatures as the strong Westerly flow that develops has a much colder air source to accompany frequent bands of rain and showers. The GFS Ensembles show the operational as a warm outlier in the second half of the run while most members shows nearer to average values when taken as a whole with a mix of milder and colder options. Rainfall remains quite a common occurrence suggesting a continuation of Atlantic Low pressure dominance. The Jet Stream shows the flow crossing the Atlantic towards the UK over the coming week with a troughing of the flow South of the UK next weekend. In Summary there is little overall change in the outputs tonight from this morning. The highlight's have to be the vicious storm system that GEM passes across Southern England next Monday morning which if evolved as shown would give damaging winds to Southern England. On a more general note the pattern remains basically unsettled and wet at times with the chance of a drier interlude at some point next weekend while all models predict a temperature fall of several degrees on current values as we move through next weekend and the following week. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

ECM once again shows cooler air trying to get in but the milder air wins out in the end A bigger view of things at t192

Torrential rain, thunder and lightening over darlington currently

Sun starting to break through now Currently 16.0c

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Nov 2013 to Sunday 17 Nov 2013: The unsettled or changeable conditions expected towards the end of October will probably carry over into the first week of November, with slightly above average rainfall amounts at first. Temperatures during this period are more likely than not to be close to or a little above average throughout, especially in the south, leading to a lower risk of frost here than can usually be expected at this time of year. There are some indications that from the second week of November northern parts are most likely to be affected by the changeable weather, whilst slightly more dry and settled conditions further south would bring an increased risk of overnight frost and fog, which may be slow to clear. Temperatures during this time will probably be closer to the seasonal average. Updated: 1228 on Sat 19 Oct 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Oct 2013 to Saturday 2 Nov 2013: After a dry start in the north on Thursday, strong winds and heavy rain are likely to spread north across many parts although tending to turn more showery on Friday. Many central and southern areas will continue to have above average temperatures. A brighter, drier, and less windy interlude is then likely for many parts with significantly colder weather possibly affecting northern areas for a time giving night frosts. However, during next weekend and into the following week more unsettled, windy conditions look set to return across all parts with further rain as well as gales in many places. The wettest conditions are likely across northwestern Britain, with the best of the drier and brighter spells in the south and east. By this stage temperatures should be near normal. Updated: 1227 on Sat 19 Oct 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

The ECM monthly average temperature for Glasgow shows average or above average (some times well above average) temperatures to around November 11th Its not until around November 12th we see the temperature average falling below average Max temperatures follow a similar pattern to above well above average at times next week peaking at around 16c the average for this time of year is around 12c

Cloudy light rain at times 14.7c

Trees turn autumnal with colourful display as forecasters predict heavy rain across the UK throughout the weekend http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2465907/UK-weather-Trees-turn-autumnal-colourful-display-forecasters-predict-heavy-rain-UK.html

12.9c to the 18th 1.6c above normal

Rain in northWarm southeastIssued: 0530hrs Saturday 19th October 2013 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling Best sunshine in southeastern Europe, but rain to the north and west Saturday Wet and windy across Britain and western France with rain into Portugal and the far west of Spain. Eastern Spain and eastern parts of France will be dry but more cloudy. Fair and dry across The Low Countries into Denmark and Germany. Snow showers will fall across northern parts of Norway and Sweden with the south cold but dry and sunny. Further snow is forecast across Finland and again will be heavy with an area of snow across northern Russia and rain in the south. Showers will affect western and eastern parts of Turkey with the south and west dry and mostly sunny. Fine and dry across Greece, Romania, Hungary, The Adriatic Region, the Czech Republic and Austria. Dry with sunny spells too across Italy and westward to the Balearics. Southern Spain looks the warmest place to be with eastern Europe and Scandinavia the coldest where a cold, strong north west wind will be blowing. Sunday Sunny spells and dry across most of Spain and Portugal today. Some cloud affecting the east and south of Spain. Plenty of sunshine thanks to high pressure across Italy and Greece. Turkey will be dry with lots of sunshine and warm too, with the fair weather persisting in Bulgaria and Romania. Cloud and rain affecting France, heaviest in the north. More heavy showers or rain in the Low Countries and northern Germany as well as Poland. Broken cloud in southern Poland, Austria and Hungary as well as Switzerland. Cloud and rain, heavy at times in Denmark and the southern Baltic States. Sunny spells and dry for most of the rest of Norway and Sweden. Sunny spells and cold with some wintry showers for Finland. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20131019

Often wet & windy Generally mild Gales in the south west http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131019

Latest from Gibby All models suggest only slow changes from the current pattern over the next week or so. All areas will be influenced by Low pressure over the Eastern Atlantic drawing up mild and sometimes strong SW winds and occasional spells of rain and showers, some heavy with thunder as troughs in the mild flow swing NE to affect all areas at times. Some unseasonably mild conditions will continue to occur at times, particularly overnight and early in the period. Northern Scotland will be less mild at times but still quite wet and this somewhat cooler weather may begin to extend SE to other areas by next weekend with lighter winds. GFS then shows a cooler and drier interlude next weekend as a ridge crosses East but in the North renewed Westerly winds and rain will arrive by Sunday with the South staying largely dry if rather cloudy. The following week is shown to become very unsettled and windy again everywhere but this time much less mild with average temperatures or a little below. There will be spells of heavy rain and squally showers driven on by chilly Westerly winds and it is shown to become cold enough for snow on Northern hills and mountains at times late in the run. UKMO shows the start of next weekend as being very unsettled still as Low pressure migrates slowly NE over the UK next Saturday. Rain and showers would be prevalent for all and away from the North it would still be quite mild though thee are signs that Sunday could be a cooler and fresher day with winds swinging more towards the NW. GEM today keeps unsettled and windy weather throughout the latter stages of it's run with a potentially stormy period in 10 days time as a vigorous Low spins towards Western Britain. After the mild week next week temperatures here too are shown to fall back to average levels and it will begin to feel rather cold in the strength of the wind and rain. NAVGEM shows a broad Westerly flow next weekend with sunshine and showers for many in rather cooler air than of late. The showers would be heaviest in the North with the potential or a drier period in the South. ECM today shows a short 24-48hr drier period over the UK at some point next weekend, most likely in the North at first and then the South the day after before wet and windy conditions return off the Atlantic over the start of the week after next with temperatures having declined to more average levels for late October. The GFS Ensembles show about another week of very mild conditions are likely across the South with rather less in the North. Thereafter temperatures will be near or even a shade below average at times. There looks to be little sign of any marked drier and quieter Autumnal weather with further rain or showers at times North and South and with temperatures lower some hill snow becomes possible later in the far North at times. The Jet Stream keeps a low latitude position across the Atlantic and the British Isles for the foreseeable future with the migration North shown yesterday programmed for a week or so ahead of the present looking less evident this morning. In Summary the weather appears in typically Autumnal fashion with deep Low pressure areas over the Atlantic steered towards the British Isles and throwing their attendant troughs North and NE across all areas at times. Some fine and dry interludes are always possible too and in the coming week these could throw temperatures into rather warm territory at times given the wind source is from well South in the Atlantic. Longer term there is growing support for things to become less mild with more average conditions as the wind source switches more towards higher latitudes of the North Atlantic but it looks like being no less unsettled with spells of rain and showers continuing for all with occasional very strong winds though, a short drier interlude in the South next weekend looks possible. As temperatures fall through Week 2 the chance of hill snow in the North becomes possible behind passing cold fronts at times. http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Other than a cooler day ECM remains mild

GFS trying to build high pressure as early as the 26th this afternoon But in the end we get a north to north westerly A north south split to start the final month of Autumn temperature wise But the cooler uppers do track south GFS snow tease

Banff (Aberdeenshire) hit 16.1c on December 26th 2011 so 17c isn't impossible for your area

A bit more from Roger J Smith's winter thoughts, a rather mild Christmas day maybe even record breaking http://www.gavsweathervids.com/rogerjsmith.html

It does seems to favour mild weather And no I haven't rigged it

12.9c to the 17th 1.5c above normal

IRI is in for October continues to go above normal for temps No real signal for precipitation

Latest from Gibby All models maintain the viewpoint that the weather will stay mild over the coming week with Low pressure never far away from the West of the UK throwing strong winds and rain at times across all areas, heaviest in the North and West of the UK with sunshine and showers in between, perhaps heavy and squally with thunder. With winds always from the SW the temperatures would remain very mild and unseasonably so at times in any brightness. GFS then continues this theme through the remainder of next week and weekend before the trend towards drier weather moves up from the SW as pressure builds. The Jet flow would move North pulling Low pressure areas well to the North of the UK keeping windy, mild and sometimes wet weather expected still here while Southern Britain becomes dry if rather cloudy but still very mild. UKMO shows deep Low pressure stretching from Ireland to Scotland with a SW flow over many parts continuing to deliver spells of heavy rain and showers along with mild but strong winds. Scotland would see lighter winds and somewhat less mild weather but no less wet. GEM looks a little like GFS as it builds pressure to the South of the UK late in its run with dry weather developing towards the SE later next week and rain bearing troughs and depressions being pushed further towards the NW of Britain with maintained rain at times there. It would remain mild or very mild for all, especially towards the brighter SE later. NAVGEM too shows embryonic signs of pressure building North across the UK late in it's run to end the spell of wet and windy weather with Low pressure shown exiting East in the days following the end of the run. ECM shows pressure building across Southern Britain next weekend albeit briefly with Low pressure shunted further North along with the Jet Stream. The net result would be to restrict the effects of the deep Lows and troughs more towards the North and West of Britain while Southern and Eastern Britain while staying breezy become drier but still very mild in a SW feed. The GFS Ensembles show a continuation of the unsettled and often wet conditions with rain at times for all in often windy conditions. Though very mild at first the trend towards more average temperatures remain shown towards the end of the run late in the run. The Jet Stream forecast shows the flow remaining well South across the Atlantic and the UK for the next week or so but there is some limited support for it to migrate back further North late in the run more especially across Europe. In Summary today all models continue to show mild and unsettled weather prevailing for a fair while with SW winds, strong at times affecting all areas. The trend picked up on by ECM yesterday of a pressure build to the SE late next week and weekend has grown some support this morning from GEM and GFS late in it's run, pushing the Jet further North but probably promoting a major winter storm well up to the NW so any affects would only likely be felt in the South and East with the North and West maintaining windy and wet conditions. The one universal fact from this morning's output remains the fact that no cold conditions are likely anywhere over the UK to see out October with quite the opposite more likely of mild and sometimes unseasonably mild conditions likely especially over the next few days. In cloudier skies though strong winds may offset the feel of these temperatures. http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Heavy snow for FinlandSettled western EuropeIssued: 0530hrs Friday 18 October 2013 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Dry across the Mediterranean, Balkans Today Windy and wet across England. Continued fair and dry across France, Belgium and Holland with lots of showers to come across Germany and Denmark. Heavy snow is forecast for northern parts of Finland with rain in the south and across the Baltic States into Poland. Mostly dry across Russia and Belarus with an area of rain across the Ukraine, Romania into Turkey. Continued dry across the Adriatic Region into Greece and Bulgaria. Fine and sunny across Italy, Spain and Portugal. Cold but dry and sunny today across Norway and Sweden. Quite windy across northern and eastern parts of Europe. Saturday Wet and windy across Britain and western France with rain into Portugal and the far west of Spain. Eastern Spain and eastern parts of France will be dry but more cloudy. Fair and dry across The Low Countries into Denmark and Germany. Snow showers will fall across northern parts of Norway and Sweden with the south cold but dry and sunny. Further snow is forecast across Finland and again will be heavy with an area of snow across northern Russia and rain in the south. Showers will affect western and eastern parts of Turkey with the south and west dry and mostly sunny. Fine and dry across Greece, Romania, Hungary, The Adriatic Region, the Czech Republic and Austria. Dry with sunny spells too across Italy and westward to the Balearics. Southern Spain looks the warmest place to be with eastern Europe and Scandinavia the coldest where a cold, strong north west wind will be blowing. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20131018

The pub run at t360 had this The 00z run has this GFS ends settled But before we even think about that there is some potentially severe weather head with lots of rain causing some probably flooding issues 18th to 25th looks particularly wet especially in the west