Summer Sun

You can see the 06z accumulated rain totals to next Wednesday on the previous page (60) but the 12z run has the highest totals in the west now with SE England seeing very little rain still Wednesday 23rd

Your going to get normal October weather over the next few weeks like everyone wet at times, mild and windy

Western rainWarm in SpainIssued: 05:30hrs Tuesday 15th October 2013 Duty forecaster: Garry Nicholson Rain affects France, fine and warm in the Mediterranean, cold and fine for Scandinavia Tuesday Much of Spain and Portugal sees a fine and warm day, although north-western parts of Iberia may see thicker cloud and some drizzly light rain. Dry with good sunny spells through the Mediterranean and across into Italy. Thicker cloud and a few showers are possible for the Balkans and into eastern Europe. The eastern Mediterranean is expected to see fine weather, with warm conditions in Greece and Turkey. Cloud and rain affects much of France, heavy in the north-west, with light rain extending into Germany also. A fair day for Switzerland, Austria and Hungary with some good sunny spells. Norway,together with much of Sweden and Finland will be fine and dry with plenty of sunshine, although feeling cold with snow showers in the far north. Scattered showers also likely in the Baltic states, together with sunny spells. Wednesday Cloud and rain spreads into north-western Iberia, heavy at times. However, much of central and southern Spain remains dry and fine and becoming very warm through the day. The Balearics stay dry and fine, with sunny spells also extending across Italy. Unsettled conditions affect the Balkan states, with some heavy rain at times. Breezy conditions likely through the eastern Mediterranean, with the risk of catching a shower in Greece, although Turkey should remain mostly dry. Heavy rain continues to affect France, especially in the northern half of the country. Germany, should see a decent day with some sunny spells, although fairly cool. Switzerland sees a dry day with hazy sunshine, whilst Austria is mostly dry. Heavy outbreaks of rain affects southern Poland, the Czech Republic and Ukraine. Northern Scandinavia sees another fine but chilly day overall with good spells of sunshine. Some showers are expected through the Baltic States and also southern parts of Sweden. Denmark should be largely dry with sunny spells. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20131015

No cold in sight for anywhere in the UK just have some patience http://www.worldweatheronline.com/Limavady-15day-weather-chart/Limavady/GB.aspx

Latest from Gibby, mild and wet with temperatures by night especially well above average All models show the same pattern as previous runs tonight so a short report from me tonight. Through the remainder of the week mild SSW winds will spread NE tomorrow behind a band of rain which then becomes slow moving over the North keeping things rather chillier here. Following the rain in the South it will become rather warm but breezy with occasional showers and further spells of rain later in the week, though still with some drier spells at times too. GFS shows the rest of it's run with sometimes wet and very windy weather across all areas at times as increasingly deep Autumnal Low's rattle East or NE across the North Atlantic past NW Scotland. gales or severe gales are possible at times with temperatures holding well up to normal if not above. UKMO shows a more modest but very mild South or SW flow with rain at times for all areas with temperatures on the warm side of average for most. GEM also carries a lot of unsettled weather through next week with winds up to gale force and periods of rain moving NE on regular occasions through the week. NAVGEM also shows unsettled weather with SW winds carrying through the beginning half of next week with relatively mild conditions for most. ECM shows all the hallmarks of a prolonged mild spell with a conveyor belt of Low pressure tracking NE towards the NW of the UK throughout next week with trough after trough carrying bands of rain followed by showers in often very windy but mild conditions for all. The GFS Ensembles show almost universal support for a mild and unsettled period of weather nationwide. Temperatures will almost be always on the mild side especially overnight with plenty of wind blowing at times. The Jet Stream shows the flow currently being set up across the Atlantic and across the UK showing some signal to buckle North over Europe in response to some build of pressure to the SE of Britain in Week 2. In Summary a mild period is more or less set in stone tonight with a sustained period of SW winds, mild weather with rain at times. Prolonged dry weather will be very hard to find over the coming few weeks with the incidence of frost or fog almost non existent with temperatures by night especially well above average. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

t216 maintains the milder unsettled theme with hints also of Scandinavia turning milder t240 ends with a big area of high pressure build over Europe, is that uncle barty building or not? The UK remains unsettled and the warmer uppers start to ease off

Mild and wet from ECM again of course it won't be raining all the time so in any clear spells it should feel quite pleasant given the winds will be from a warmer direction than of late By t168 we see the colder uppers get pushed further away from the UK

With the PV on the move this afternoon Scandinavia becomes milder whilst the UK remains under low pressure so mild and wet at times for us with no cold in sight Quite a good call from the met office IMO who for the past week or so have stood firm about it remaining mild as we see out October and enter November

Yes November looks very mild this evening Winter in general is fairly average Out of the next 8 months from CFS (November 13 to June 14) only one is below normal this afternoon and thats March

Not dark here infact we have blue sky overhead In 10 Saturday it will be shortest day then we do it all over again as we head back to the lighter nights

Its here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?p=2804532

Not a mug but

Forget above colder weather for now the most concerning thing for some over the next few weeks is rainfall Accumulated totals to this time next week show some stark contrasts across the UK Just over 100mm in NE Scotland but in NW Scotland some spots don't even get above 30mm whilst in SE England we don't get above 20mm Take it on another 24 hrs and parts of NE Scotland get just over 120mm of rain again the SE remains one of the driest places If those totals come off we'll be looking at flooding again unfortunately

Accumulated totals to this time next week show some stark contrasts across the UK Just over 100mm in NE Scotland but in NW Scotland some spots don't even get above 30mm whilst in SE England we don't get above 20mm Take it on another 24 hrs and parts of NE Scotland get just over 120mm of rain again the SE remains one of the driest places

Up-to September 30th Darlington is pretty much bang on the 81 to 10 average for rainfall 406mm for the year so far (up-to 30th September) 1981 to 2010 average is 408mm How much rain we get over the next 2 weeks or so remains to be seen as with a lot of south westerlies it all depends on how much energy there is left in any rain once it gets this side of the pennines So far we are 28m short of the 81 to 10 average for rain in October have a feeling we'll be quite a good bit above average this month

On 29mm for October so far 406mm for the year so far (up-to 30th September) 1981 to 2010 average is 408mm so pretty much bang on average so far this year

Thanks

Could you use a different text colour? that is very hard to read

British weather services initial Winter Planning Forecasts, both National and Regional will be issued by months end To early for high confidence but the Nov armageddon touted in some quarters looks a little OTT....to say the least! https://twitter.com/BritWeatherSvs

If we get a lot of westerlies this winter then your call wouldn't be far off IMO

13.4c to the 14th 1.7c above average

A cloudy wet start for the NE but it should brighten up as the day progresses

Wet and mild Most rain in west Becoming wet and very mild http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131015

Latest from Gibby, a sustained spell of mild SW winds with rain at times, little sign of anything significantly cold affecting any of the UK for the next few weeks Today sees all models introducing a sustained spell of unsettled and Atlantic based weather beginning tomorrow. Low pressure settles over the Atlantic and steers a front NE across the UK tomorrow before it becomes slow moving over Northern Scotland. Behind the front warmer air moves in and then begins a period of many days of temperatures on the mild side of average with spells of rain, wind and showers with a few almost springlike sunny intervals in between the rain bands. Northernmost areas will see somewhat less mild weather but even here it will never be desperately cold though with some persistent rain at times in a cool ESE wind. GFS then shows the entire remainder of the run with broad and strong SW airflows blowing across large parts of the UK, sometimes strong with gales in exposed places. All this will be in association with Low pressure crossing the Atlantic and passing NW Scotland at times.There would be spells of rain at times too with just briefer drier and brighter spells in between. The North could feel a little fresher at times as cold fronts pass through. UKMO has Low pressure off NW Ireland at the start of next week with a fresh to strong SW flow across the UK with spells of rain and showers for all in temperatures on the mild side of average. GEM in particular shows the potential for a stormy spell early next week as a viscious Low moves up from the SW close to central Britain. To it's North colder and wet weather would feature while to the South the strongest winds and potential severe gales would take place along with heavy rain albeit under very mild conditions here. NAVGEM holds Low pressure just to the West of Ireland early next week throwing frequent troughs NE across the UK with rain at times followed by showers. It shows a generally mild picture for all. ECM shows wet and windy weather early next week as a very deep Low passes close to the North of the UK. After a mild period colder weather would engage the circulation on the rear side of this Low, shown to affect the North after the middle of next week with showers turning wintry here over the hills. The South would remain rather milder with rain at times from a slow moving trough across Southern England. The GFS Ensembles continue to show a sustained spell of wet and windy weather across the UK over the next few weeks. Temperatures look like staying on the mild side of average throughout the entirety of the output both North and South with just a handful of cooler options in the North later on. Some drier, pleasant and still mild weather looks like occurring at times too. It also looks like becoming quite windy at times too with a dominance from a SW point. The Jet Stream looks like maintaining a new position across the Atlantic towards the UK for some considerable period to come. In Summary today the trend remains for the UK to be staring down the barrel of a sustained spell of mild SW winds with rain at times. The North could be a little chillier at times but there is little sign of any chance of anything significantly cold affecting any of the UK for the next few weeks. Despite the rain being a common feature for most areas some brighter periods will be likely to occur at times too when in shelter it could still feel quite warm. Winds could be strong at times almost anywhere but with the majority of the time seeing the UK bathed in a SW wind direction this will emphasise the reasons why the UK is likely to remain mild. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

ECM still looks cool to me in FI apart from the south of England