Summer Sun

I never said that I said if they go independent next year we could see them bringing in there own time zone, which can't be ruled out. I personally don't think the Scottish folk will vote to go independent but thats for another thread

Latest from Gibby All models continue to show mild and changeable periods for the next 4-5 days when the agreed pattern between the models of Low pressure to the West of the UK with mild and breezy South or SW winds carrying Low pressure and troughs NE across all areas with showers or longer spells of rain for all while temperatures remain well above average. GFS shows the entire remainder of the run with repeated Low pressure areas steaming East and NE towards NW Scotland and continuing to deliver spells of sometimes heavy rain and showers in sometimes gale force SW winds. Temperatures would remain close to average or a little above with the threat of things cooling down in the North late in the run. UKMO tonight shows deep Low pressure close to NW Britain next Wednesday with strong to gale SW winds and heavy rain or squally showers for all in temperatures close to average or rather above in the South, sometimes offset by the wind though. GEM shows potentially very wet conditions through tonight's latter half to it's run with depressions scooting NE across Northern and Western Britain with rain and gale or severe gale force winds at times in temperatures close to average. A few short drier interludes are possible too. NAVGEM too shows a deep Low pressure complex remaining around or over the UK with rain and strong winds on frequent occasions with sunshine and showers when it is not raining continually. It too shows temperatures close to or a little above average, all academic though due to the strength of the wind. ECM tonight shows a strong Jet flow blowing across the Atlantic and across the UK later next week with copious rainfall at times as well as strong winds as troughs and attendant Low pressure areas swing by close to the NW of the UK. It would stay relatively mild offset in the wind and rain. The GFS Ensembles tonight show a potentially wet and occasionally stormy spell of weather possible with Low pressure nearly always the governing feature centred close to or over the UK. After a mild beginning a slow trend towards more average temperatures look possible towards the end of the run. The Jet Stream continues to show a feed South of the UK for some considerable time now steering deep Low pressure close to or over NW Britain. Through the second less reliable half of the output the pattern remains more open but with every chance that the Jet flow remains on a Southerly location maintaining the unsettled feed. In Summary tonight there is a strong signal for potentially very wet conditions to develop across many parts of the UK over the next week or two. A persistent spell of successive Low pressure areas which deepen further later in the run will ensure a lot of rain at times though the compensation is paid back by winds being maintained from a basic SW source ensuring mild weather will be felt for all for most of the time. Having said that the unseasonably mild conditions of current times may leak away later next week and beyond as colder air becomes engaged around the Western flank of Low pressure areas over the North. In addition to all this some very strong winds reaching severe gale force could cause some disruption at times as the deepest Lows roll past. http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Met Eireann (Irish Met office) have a status yellow out for 25 to 50 mm highest totals over east and south Leinster and south Munster. It certainly looks a wet old day for all of Ireland tomorrow but this transfers to Scotland on Saturday where we could have some flooding issues

t240 doesn't build the high over the UK this evening but thats one huge high over mainland Europe!

ECM remains mild and unsettled so far with only the far north of Scotland prone to any colder air By t216 like this morning we see hints of high pressure starting to get its act together over mainland Europe, and with pressure low over Greenland it has every chance of building over the UK

Thankfully our position in Europe means it getting dark at 7pm in mid June is virtually impossible unless it got light at about 2am!

If Scotland goes independent next year we could see them bringing in there own time zone, which in turn would free the rest of the UK to move its timezone if it wished to do so. I believe the current set up is down to Scotland yes, a BST type time zone all year round for England and Wales makes sense

Mild and unsettled continues to dominate GFS once more with the only cold really affecting Scotland Any changes to something cooler for all remain at t384 The warmer uppers into Scandinavia remain on as well, it will be a big change for them after an early cold blast

Its back in the media again this clock change the current proposal which has a lot of backing is to put clocks forward 1 hr in October and 2 hours forward in March The extra hour gained on a afternoon would make a big difference for kids safety on an afternoon and during February it wouldn't be getting dark till 18:00 / 19:00 ish depending on your location and time of month More on this topic here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78192-cheaper-energy-bills-and-an-economic-boost-if-we-dont-turn-clocks-back/?p=2808492

A high of 17c today with lots of blue sky and sunshine A nice mild day all in all perfect for getting outside

A high of 17c today with lots of blue sky and sunshine A nice mild day all in all perfect for getting outside

UK Outlook for Thursday 31 Oct 2013 to Thursday 14 Nov 2013: The unsettled and slightly milder than average conditions expected towards the end of October will probably carry over into the first week of November, leading to slightly above average rainfall amounts for some regions, especially in the north and west. Temperatures during this period are thought more likely than not to be close to or a little above average throughout, especially in the south, leading to a lower risk of frost here than can usually be expected at this time of year. There are some indications that during the second week of November northern parts become most likely to be affected by unsettled weather whilst slightly more settled conditions further south would bring an increased risk of overnight frost and fog. Updated: 1236 on Wed 16 Oct 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 Oct 2013 to Thursday 31 Oct 2013: Rain across northern and western areas, pushing east through Tuesday, with brighter and showery conditions following into Wednesday. Rather windy, with risk of gales in the north and west. Remaining very mild, both by day and night, and rather warm in the sunny spells in the south and east. Through the rest of next week, remaining generally unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times. However, some brighter interludes, best across eastern and northeastern parts. These unsettled conditions are then likely to persist through to the latter part of October, but in spite of this conditions will be mild for late October, especially by night with frosts confined to the far north. Later in the month, drier and brighter conditions may become more prevalent in the southeast. Updated: 1158 on Thu 17 Oct 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Dry, sunny and plenty of blue sky 14.0c and rising

Heavy showers expected to bombard Britain for a week KEEP the brolly handy because Britain is set for a week of strong winds and heavy showers. The wintry weather is showing no signs of letting up as fierce storms roll in from the Atlantic. Temperatures will be higher than average for the time of year at 19C (66F) in the South. But that will be cold comfort with forecasts of rain for the whole weekend. Coastal regions are due to take the brunt with many areas on flood alert. And any hopes parents may have of autumn sunshine as the half-term holiday approaches are looking bleak. Forecasters blame a series of low pressure systems drawing warmer, moist air in from the continent and the Atlantic. Forecaster Dan Williams, of the Met Office, said the heaviest showers will be in the West and South-west although most places will see rain. “There could be some rain across many parts of the country on Thursday and Friday, showers will be fairly persistent,†he said yesterday. “Winds are going to pick up a little bit, and it is a similar picture on Saturday with more showers about. It is going to be unsettled but mild, with temperatures slightly above average.†Netweather forecaster Nick Finnis said: “Thursday should be off to a bright start across England and Wales and it will remain mostly bright with sunny spells, though there will be some scattered, perhaps heavy, showers blowing through on the southwesterly breeze. “Although there will be strong coastal gusts, elsewhere the winds will be lighter adding to the problem as rain will be slower moving. There will be risk of localised flooding over the next few days especially over the South and South-west.†Jonathan Powell, of Vantage Weather Services, added: “There is a fair concentration of rain over the weekend with plenty of heavy showers.†The grim prediction comes after parts of the country have already been hit by heavy downpours sparking localised floods and traffic misery. Essex saw nearly half an inch of rain fall in an hour at the weekend, while rain continued to batter parts of the UK yesterday. http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/437338/Heavy-showers-expected-to-bombard-Britain-for-a-week

The met office have issued a yellow rain warning for; Angus, Perth and Kinross Issued at: 1046 on Thu 17 Oct 2013 Valid from: 0005 on Sat 19 Oct 2013 Valid to: 2300 on Sat 19 Oct 2013 Rain arriving later on Friday will turn heavy and persistent on Saturday over parts of Tayside and Angus. The public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding. Chief Forecaster's assessment Warm, moisture laden air from the south will meet cold air to the north, generating an active frontal system later on Friday and into Saturday. Rainfall will be enhanced by air rising up southeast facing slopes in the strong flow, with over 40 mm of rain in places, and the potential for locally more than 60 mm in higher river catchments. This is likely to give enhanced river levels within, and downstream of, the wettest areas. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=ta&fcTime=1382137200

Often wet & windy Generally mild Gales in the west http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131017

13.0c to the 16th 1.5c above average

Roger J Smith has issued his winter forecast Full forecast and CET predictions here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?p=2808183

That will do me very nicely Roger

As expected its a much brighter day here in Darlo lots of blue sky and sunshine 10.6c and rising

The link at the bottom of the post

Cold across ScandinaviaWarm, sunny SpainIssued: 0530hrs Thursday 17 October 2013 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Dry across much of the Mediterranean Today Mainly dry with sunny spells across England and mild. Some rain in the far east of France otherwise a fair, dry day to come. Fair and dry as well across Belgium and Holland while heavy showers are forecast across Denmark. Cloudy and wet across Germany and Austria with spells of rain. Cold across Norway with rain and snow showers while rain falls across Sweden and Finland stays dry. Dry as well across Russia, The Baltic States, Belarus, Poland, the Czech Republic and the Adriatic Region with sunny spells. Showers are expected across the Ukraine with an area of heavy rain across Romania and Bulgaria. Heavy showers to affect western Turkey, dry in the east. Mostly sunny and dry across Greece, Italy, Sardinia, the Balearics, Spain and Portugal. Warmest today across Spain and windy across the eastern Mediterranean. Friday Windy and wet across England. Continued fair and dry across France, Belgium and Holland with lots of showers to come across Germany and Denmark. Heavy snow is forecast for northern parts of Finland with rain in the south and across the Baltic States into Poland. Mostly dry across Russia and Belarus with an area of rain across the Ukraine, Romania into Turkey. Continued dry across the Adriatic Region into Greece and Bulgaria. Fine and sunny across Italy, Spain and Portugal. Cold but dry and sunny today across Norway and Sweden. Quite windy across northern and eastern parts of Europe. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=EuropeanSummary

We need to away the ensemble run from ECM to see what support it has but towards the end of its run ECM starts to become calmer than of late

Latest from Gibby All models show a similar pattern over the coming 4-5 days with the general message being an unsettled one revolving around Low pressure to the West of Britain and High pressure over Europe. There are small scale changes this morning in the shortest term in that the wet weather tomorrow has been pushed further West and will leave the East and SE of the UK in a drier and potentially foggy period tonight as a ridge pushes across these areas later today and a drier day tomorrow than originally thought. Beyond tomorrow the trend is as before with various troughs and Low pressure areas pushing up from the SW delivering periods of rain, heavy at times interspersed with showers and sunny intervals. It will stay mild overall though Northern Scotland and the Northern Isles could stay rather colder for a few more days yet. GFS then shows next week as an unsettled one with wind featuring rather more than currently with gales in places as successive Lows and troughs swing NE close by to the UK. The temperatures would become academic as the wind will temper the mildness of the overall values through most days. There could be some copious rainfall totals at times especially near windward slopes facing SW with just shorter drier and fresher periods in between the rain. Things are shown to dry out towards the SE late in the run but no less mild with a long fetch SW strong flow bringing warm and moist air from the tropics and delivering rain and drizzle to many Northern and Western areas. UKMO closes it's run today with a deep Low to the West of Ireland with SW winds across much of Britain with troughs embedded in the flow. These would bring spells of rain North and East across the UK in continuing mild and windy conditions for all. GEM also keeps the changeable and unsettled theme going throughout next week as Low after Low pushes North across Western Britain pulling their troughs NE across all areas with strong winds up to gale force at times with spells of heavy rain and shorter more showery periods in between. There are some signs that the North could become less mild very late in the run as Low pressure anchors more towards the SW. NAVGEM keeps a very turbulent spell of weather over the UK next week as a conveyor belt of Low pressure crosses the Atlantic and crashes into the UK with active fronts and strong winds delivering showers and longer periods of rain to all in temperatures near to or above normal throughout. ECM is a little calmer today despite continuing to show changeable and mild weather for much of next week it offers higher pressure feeding North towards Southern Britain later next week fending Low pressures further to the NW and allowing Southern Britain to become dry and very mild with a weak SW flow. Such improvements look less likely for the North and West as weaker troughs move North and NE afflicting these areas with grey but mild conditions with rain and drizzle at times. As a precursor to this Northern areas may become somewhat cooler for a time. The GFS Ensembles this morning show close agreement on a sustained mild and Atlantic based weather pattern with highly changeable conditions alternating between spells of rain and brighter days with showers. With winds always from a SW direction things would remain mild overall with little likelihood of frost and fog due to the mildness, cloud cover expected and the strength and source of the wind. The Jet Stream driving these synoptics shows a new position much further South than recently over or to the South of Britain through the coming week. Changes are slow thereafter though there looks like at least the possibility of it moving further North over the Atlantic in 10 days or so. In Summary today the mild theme continues with rain at times likely for all. As always in these changeable Atlantic based patterns the heaviest rain will be in the North and West while the South and East might well be favoured for some shorter drier interludes with rather more than that if ECM's output is realised for later next week. All charts from all models point towards above average or average temperatures at worst with little widespread frost or fog problems away from tonight. The pattern looks set for some considerable time with any trend arising from this morning's output showing a shift North of the Jet late next week which though currently speculative would only serve to maintain a milder still and drier South or SW flow over Britain pumped up by higher pressure over Europe. http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm