Summer Sun

If you have a youtube link just put that in and it will auto add

Hi and welcome to netweather Yes you are in a warning as part of the one for North Yorkshire You have the same as us yellow warnings for both rain and wind The wind gusts for Northallerton as pretty similar to us in Darlo hitting a max of 32mph on Monday we have 34mph so very similar

UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Nov 2013 to Saturday 23 Nov 2013: The mostly unsettled conditions are expected to continue for much of this period, with a trend for rainfall amounts to be slightly above average in the north and west but nearer to average in the south and east. Temperatures during this period are more likely to be near, or perhaps, a little above average throughout, leading to a lower risk of frost than can usually be expected at this time of year. There are some indications that towards the end of the period, slightly drier and more settled conditions further south would bring an increased risk of overnight frost, with fog which may be slow to clear at times. Updated: 1237 on Fri 25 Oct 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Oct 2013 to Friday 8 Nov 2013: It will be a dry and rather cold start to Wednesday, with a touch of frost across many eastern and southern parts as the winds ease. However, rain and strengthening winds will push in from the west through the day. This will herald the change back to unsettled conditions which will prevail thereafter. Showers or longer outbreaks of rain, locally heavy, will affect many areas, especially the north and west, with strong winds and gales also likely in the west at times. The best drier and brighter interludes will be across southeastern parts, but this may allow occasional fog overnight. After a rather cold start to the period, the milder conditions are likely to return to most areas, although northwestern areas will see some incursions of colder air at times. Updated: 1146 on Fri 25 Oct 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Whoops genuine mistake I always add links as well Apologies

Yep we should avoid it in the north thankfully, hopefully it will ease for the south as well 80mph + gales is no fun for anyone especially when people could get killed

Weather: Storm Alerts As UK Set For 'Hurricane' A series of wind, rain and flood alerts are now in place as forecasters predict gales of more than 80mph - classed as hurricane strength. The Met Office warned people to "be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures". The storm is currently developing over the Atlantic and will potentially hit UK land on Sunday night and into Monday. Today, forecasters urged people to prepare for the storm, with some comparing its potential to the Great Storm of 1987 and record-breaking gales in Wales in 1989. Sky weather presenter Jo Wheeler said: "Late October is notorious for strong storms, with a wind gust of 124mph recorded in the Vale of Glamorgan in 1989. "Should this storm achieve its potential, it is likely to bring down trees and to cause damage to roads and buildings, possibly causing major transport disruption and power cuts." Wheeler said the storm was due to develop over the Atlantic in the next 24 hours as a strong jet stream and warm air combine to create a deep low-pressure system. While its trajectory is unclear, there are fears it may hit land, wreaking chaos over England and Wales. If it does make land, it is likely to hit Wales and the South West first before sweeping east and touching most of the country. Exposed coasts in Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Hampshire, West Sussex, East Sussex and Kent are most likely to feel the brunt of the winds. The storm could also miss land completely - sweeping instead through the English Channel. Met Office senior forecaster Helen Chivers said: "Winds of that strength are damaging winds - there will be a risk of damage to homes and trees and disruption to travel. "This is not a storm you see every winter. The storm of 1987 is one, and the Burns day storm in January 1990 is another." Atlantic storms of this type usually develop further west across the ocean, losing strength by the time they reach the UK and Ireland. But this one is unusual in that it is expected to appear much closer to land, potentially moving across the country while it is in its most powerful phase. The storm is expected to strike two weeks later than the Great Storm of 1987, which left a trail of destruction on October 15 and 16. It flattened trees, knocked out power and left 22 people dead in England and France. Forecasters at the time famously failed to predict the severity of the storm. http://news.sky.com/story/1159525/weather-storm-alerts-as-uk-set-for-hurricane

Latest text update from the met Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday: Remaining very unsettled with sunny spells, squally showers and strong winds throughout. Turning potentially very stormy on Monday in the south, with heavy rain and severe gales developing.

72mph wind gust for Brighton on Monday http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/brighton-brighton-and-hove#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1382918400 On the other hand up here we thankfully have significantly lighter winds forecast with top gusts of just 34mph http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/darlington-darlington#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1382918400

13.1c to the 24th 2.1c above average

The NE now has a yellow warning for strong winds Issued at: 1104 on Fri 25 Oct 2013 Valid from: 0005 on Mon 28 Oct 2013 Valid to: 2100 on Mon 28 Oct 2013 A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across the country early on Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell of weather for much of England and Wales. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding. There is some continuing uncertainty in the timing, intensity and track of the low. However, the public should be aware of the risk of damage to trees and structures, as well as the possibility of disruption to transport and power supplies. Chief Forecaster's assessment A developing storm is expected to reach the UK later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, probably across England and Wales, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. There is the potential for gusts of over 70 mph in the Yellow area and over 80 mph in the accompanying Amber area, especially on exposed coasts, both in southwesterly winds ahead of the low and west to northwesterly winds behind it. This warning will be updated during Saturday morning. Areas affected Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Redcar and Cleveland, Stockton-on-Tees, Durham, Darlington, South Tyneside, Sunderland, Gateshead, North Tyneside, Newcastle upon Tyne, Northumberland Wind gusts are still significantly lower for this region thankfully not getting above 40mph

Here comes the MEGASTORM: Devastating 100mph winds to bring 48 hours of ‘utter hell’ BRITAIN’S worst storm for almost three decades will bring the nation to a standstill with power cuts and traffic chaos, experts warned last night. Hurricane-force winds of up to 100mph – strong enough to uproot trees, cause severe structural damage and tear down power lines – are expected to hit the UK on Sunday night or Monday morning. As forecasters warned that Britain faces a “historic†storm, the Met Office issued a level-2 amber warning for strong winds along the south coast. It issued lower level-1 yellow warnings for strong winds and rain for almost all the rest of England and Wales. With some forecasters predicting almost two inches of rain, there are fears that floods could add to the chaos. Met Office forecaster Helen Chivers said: “We are looking at a storm similar to the Burns Day storm in January 1990 which saw wind speeds of 92mph.†http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2814238 Updated amber warning covers a wider area now East Midlands, East of England, London & South East England, South West England, Wales, West Midlands http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382655600

Here comes the MEGASTORM: Devastating 100mph winds to bring 48 hours of ‘utter hell’ BRITAIN’S worst storm for almost three decades will bring the nation to a standstill with power cuts and traffic chaos, experts warned last night. Hurricane-force winds of up to 100mph – strong enough to uproot trees, cause severe structural damage and tear down power lines – are expected to hit the UK on Sunday night or Monday morning. As forecasters warned that Britain faces a “historic†storm, the Met Office issued a level-2 amber warning for strong winds along the south coast. It issued lower level-1 yellow warnings for strong winds and rain for almost all the rest of England and Wales. With some forecasters predicting almost two inches of rain, there are fears that floods could add to the chaos. Met Office forecaster Helen Chivers said: “We are looking at a storm similar to the Burns Day storm in January 1990 which saw wind speeds of 92mph.†The Met Office issued a statement last night saying: “As we move into Sunday night and Monday morning there is a risk that a significant storm could develop close to the UK which has the potential to bring some exceptionally strong winds to parts of the country. “Currently the storm is most likely to impact the southern half of the UK, with the potential for gusts of more than 80mph – especially on exposed coasts in the South. “Winds of this strength could bring down trees or cause structural damage, potentially causing transport disruption or power cuts.†Chief forecaster Eddie Carroll added: “The storm is likely to intensify rapidly just west of the UK late on Sunday before tracking across England and Wales early on Monday. “People should be aware there is a risk of severe weather and significant disruption. “People should keep up to date with and act on the advice in our forecasts and warnings as the situation develops. “This storm is more unusual, developing much closer to the UK and potentially tracking across the country while still in its most powerful phase.†Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said winds could hit 100mph. He added: “This is going to be a historic weather event. Although the south coast will bear the brunt, the whole country is at risk. “This is going to be around 48 hours of utter misery for many. It is a tropical system originating in the Mexico region which has been carried along by the jet stream and now heading straight for the UK. “People should be on alert for power outages, uprooted trees and the possibility of severe building damage, on a par with the Great Storm of 1987.†The Great Storm killed 18 people and caused £1billion worth of damage. Leon Brown, forecaster for The Weather Channel, said: “The storm will also bring some heavy rain with between 1in and 1.6in expected over the South-west, Wales and northern England. Since the ground is near-saturated in these western areas there will be a risk of local flooding.†The Environment Agency last night had 15 flood alerts in place – most in the South-west – and one more serious flood warning for the Ouse near York. http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/439035/Here-comes-the-MEGASTORM-Devastating-100mph-winds-to-bring-48-hours-of-utter-hell

Latest 3 month outlook from WSI Mild Start to November Followed by Colder Weather Through December Coldest Risk Early and Potentially Late this Winter with ‘January Thaw’ Andover, MA, 23 October 2013 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects below-normal temperatures for the upcoming period (November-January) across most of the northern mainland, eastern Europe, and western Russia, with above-normal temperatures elsewhere.According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “A very mild westerly flow pattern has become established across Europe, and it appears as if this pattern will persist into at least early November. However, our internal statistical analysis suggests an increasing threat of North Atlantic blocking and colder weather later in November and through December. By January, however, dynamical and statistical models suggest a quick transition to a much milder pattern across much of mainland Europe as westerly flow becomes re-established. Finally, the February-March pattern will be driven by the existence (or not) of a sudden stratospheric warming event, which would disrupt the polar vortex and result in sharply increased chances of colder temperatures as the winter ends.â€In November, WSI forecasts: Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Warmer than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normal west, colder than normal eastSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except far SoutheastIn December, WSI forecasts: Nordic Region – Colder than normal, except extreme northern sectionsUK – Colder than normalNorthern Mainland – Colder than normalSouthern Mainland – Colder than normal, except southern half of Iberia and ItalyIn January, WSI forecasts: Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Warmer than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme eastern sectionsSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme Southeast http://www.wsi.com/9e3fe732-db20-4561-aee8-3a0f2af5306c/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

Wet in west Blustery Stormy Monday, remaining unsettled http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131025

GFS 06z has this low at 980mb

The only problem is when the Atlantic arrives it can take months to shift I personally think December will be mild seeing a continuation of Autumn

Yep +NAO looking likely now for November We could be looking at one of the mildest Autumns in a long time this year

Becoming More SettledRain across IberiaIssued: 0530hrs Friday 25 October 2013 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Dry across the Mediterranean, Balkans Today Windy with outbreaks of rain across England and into northern France, Belgium and Holland. Outbreaks of moderate to heavy rain are also forecast across western Spain with heavy showers into Portugal. Eastern Spain and the Balearics should be fair and dry. Dry as well across southern France. Rather cloudy but dry across Germany and Denmark. Sunnier with a good deal of dry weather expected from Poland eastward across the Baltic States, Belarus into most of the Ukraine and Romania. Outbreaks of rain are forecast across Finland and most of Russia. Lots of fine, dry weather to come across the Adriatic Region and the Balkans. Much of the Mediterranean Region will also be dry with sunny spells. Across Italy, Sardinia and Corsica. Cold but dry sunny spells across Norway and northern Sweden with southern Sweden a bit milder. Saturday Further spells of rain spread in across England. Much of Europe is looking settled dominated by high pressure. It will be fair and dry from France across the Low Countries into Germany and Poland, although an area of heavy rain is expected from Finland through the Baltic Region into the extreme northern parts of Poland and Germany. This rain will also affect most of Sweden, Norway and Denmark. It will remain dry and pleasantly mild across the Adriatic Region with all of the Balkans also dry and mostly sunny. Lots of sunshine to come across Turkey, Greece and Italy today. A better day to come across Iberia with sunny spells across Portugal and Spain, although a few showers may affect central Spain. Southwesterly gales are likely to affect Britain, northern France, the Low Countries and across into Sweden and north eastern Europe. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=EuropeanSummary

You may have even longer to wait yet if one doesn't arrive in the brief cool down next week after the storm leaves Matt Hugo has tweeted this, this morning MattHugo81 Latest EC32 maintains an unsettled +NAO pattern throughout the bulk of November with little evidence of a pattern change #unsettled Thats likely to mean this mild weather is going to last a long time yet, of course we can get frost's in unsettled spells but you have to relie on winds falling light

Latest from Gibby All models show a major storm system affecting parts of England and Wales as we move out of the weekend and into the start of next week. In the short term there will be plenty of rain and showers scattered about the UK in fresh to strong West or SW winds. the rain could be heavy in places as a cocktail of troughs cross the UK in the strong breeze. It will feel rather colder than of late. The main problems begin on Sunday evening as a vicious storm system which develops explosively down to the SW of the UK on Sunday whistles across Wales on its way to the North Sea and Northern Europe. Wind gusts of 70-80mls per hour could occur across Southern England for a time in the first hours of Monday morning. through the day the storms transfer east out into the North sea and things calm down quite quickly as pressure rises rapidly and a window of dry and quiet weather is shown to develop for all for a time around midweek as a ridge of High pressure crosses East. GFS then turns things rather unsettled again as Low pressure, this time well to the NW brings a return to rain and strong winds at times to all but more concentrated towards the NW. This pattern continues throughout the rest of the run with all areas seeing some rain though temperatures will never be far from average values for late October and early November. UKMO shows a ridge having crossed the UK on Wednesday with a short drier spell with light winds before low pressure moves in towards the NW again on Thursday with increasing winds, cloud and rain rolling in off the Atlantic towards the North and West in particular. GEM today shows an unsettled and changeable pattern beyond the midweek quieter period with a return to brisk and sometimes strong West or SW winds with rain at times and temperatures close to average. NAVGEM too shows changeable conditions but with High pressure closer to the South at times the bulk of the strongest winds and heaviest rains will be felt across Northern and Western areas with some brighter and drier periods across the South. Temperatures will be close to or maybe a fraction above average at times. ECM is locked well into a changeable pattern from the midweek next week with spells of rain blowing through on a fresh to strong Westerly breeze. there will inevitably be some drier and brighter periods especially in the South at first and between bands of rain sunshine and showers are possible. Temperatures will be close to average for the time of year. The GFS Ensembles look less wet in the South this morning with a trend towards milder weather with above average uppers over us from the exit of the early week storm. In the north the sine wave pattern of a mild day, then a cooler one is noted with very changeable conditions in terms of rain and wind amounts too look likely. The Jet Stream shows a fairly incessant pattern of the flow undulating in a SW to NE direction across the UK over the next few weeks. High pressure will be present over Europe keeping much of the UK on the mild side of the jet flow with any cold air held well north of the Jet flow and the UK over the period. In Summary the weather will remain unsettled and often windy with rain or showers at times for all. The storm system of Sunday night and Monday morning will be the most severe weather of the period with the UK reverting to a much more average period thereafter with the rain and showers being heaviest and most prolonged to the North and West of Britain along with the strong winds. temperatures will be always close to average and probably above at times, especially in the South. http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Still questions as to where the centre of this low will develop and where it does is crucial ECM has it just south of the republic of Ireland Where as UKMO has it much closer

Synopsis Beneath a very sharp/elongated longwave trough, a new surface low will track northwards across Ireland, while surface fronts migrate northeastwards across most parts of the British Isles. In the post-frontal environment, cooling mid-levels over warm SSTs (and LSTs) will result in some convection chances. Discussion A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop offshore to the south of Ireland around 05z-07z as a shortwave trough destabilises an environment with 600-800 J/kg CAPE. This shortwave/cluster will then expand and drift northeastwards through the remainder of the forecast period, reaching SW Scotland/Cumbria towards mid-afternoon. In the wake of this shortwave, further showers and a few thunderstorms will develop elsewhere across the Irish Sea, Wales and SW England. Depth of instability is questionable, and hence lightning coverage remains uncertain/borderline SLGT, but given ELTs down to -40C in a strongly sheared environment (30-40kts DLS) some sporadic lightning is expected from any well-organised cells. In fact, despite the cold front/occlusion passing through, surface dewpoints will still be around 13C leading to low LCLs, and given 25-35kts LLS with some slight backing of surface winds, there is scope for an isolated tornado. The strongest cells may occasionally exhibit supercell-like characteristics, capable of producing some small hail and gusty winds. http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/290 SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #035ISSUED: 1300UTC THURSDAY 24TH OCTOBER 2013 SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS - SOUTHWEST & SOUTHERN ENGLAND, WALES, MIDLANDSBRIEF, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES - SOUTHWEST & SOUTHERN ENGLAND, WALES, MIDLANDS IN EFFECT FROM 0200UTC UNTIL 0900UTC FRIDAY 25TH OCTOBER 2013 JET DRIVEN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE WITH POST-FRONTAL INSTABILITY, WITH FAVOURABLE SHEAR FOR WELL ORGANISED CONVECTION DISCUSSION: THERE IS MODERATE MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK DURING THE MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE SW WILL PUSH AN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE UP THROUGH THE UK, DELIVERING SOME 20-30MM OF RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT TIME. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN POST-FRONTAL SHORTWAVING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WALES LATER IN THE MORNING, SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING CONVECTION COULD OCCUR. INSTABILITY IS ONLY SLIGHT, BUT THESE AREAS ARE HIGHLY SHEARED BOTH VERTICALLY AND DIRECTIONALLY, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR WELL ORGANISED CELLS TO OCCUR. MOST LIKELY ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT AND ADVECTED ONSHORE INTO COASTAL AREAS, THOUGH THERE IS SCOPE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THEREAFTER INLAND. THE ONCOMING JET CONVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD STIFLE FURTHER CONVECTION AFTER THE WATCH PERIOD, SO THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA. http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

Latest from Gibby All models show Low pressure becoming dominant again over the next few days as the first centre moves North North-east across the UK tomorrow and is followed by very deep Low pressure up to the North with a broad run of westerly winds with showers and longer spells of rain over the weekend. On Monday the risk of a severe weather event is still shown by the most powerful models and if the path of the storm takes a track over Northern Wales and England severe or storm force winds are possible for a time on Monday but there is still an element of doubt as to how strong the winds will be and where tonight. GFS then takes us through the remainder of next week with changeable weather maintained but with less wind than early in the week as Low pressure ends up close to SW England with rain at times and relatively mild conditions in the Southerly flow. Later in the output the Atlantic racks up strength again with gales and spells of rain and showers returning to all areas over week 2 as deep Low pressure moves East to the North of the UK. UKMO tonight shows a brief lull following the Monday storm with sunshine and showers before a new Low pressure up to the NW brings renewed strong winds and heavy rain East across all areas around midweek. Temperatures wouldn't be far from average but it will feel cold in the wind and rain. GEM shows a very changeable and windy period through next week with High pressure never far from the South especially later in the run. Nevertheless, it would be sufficiently far away to maintain windy weather for all with Westerly gales on northern and Western coasts and hills at times. rain would be commonplace too with the North and West seeing the most of this until all areas dry out a bit as pressure builds up from the SW at the end of the run. NAVGEM keeps very unsettled weather next week with spells of rain and showers for all as Low pressure continues to move across or to the North of the UK. Temperatures would fluctuate between average and maybe a little above or below average at times. ECM tonight shows a brief respite from the wind and rain as we move through midweek as a weak ridge crosses the UK from the West. Later in the week Low pressure intensifies again to the North bringing renewed rain and strong winds across from the West from later in the week. Temperatures will be close to average. The GFS Ensembles continue to show mostly unsettled weather with rain at times in a strongly Atlantic based weather pattern. Temperatures are never expected to be cold or overly warm through the period with strong winds at times too. The Jet Stream shows the flow troughed down to the SW of Britain but flattens out on a West to East axis across the Atlantic and the UK from the weekend and well into the end of next week. In Summary the weather looks like staying very unsettled over the next few weeks. There will just be a few shorter and drier interludes between lengthy spells of rain and showers. The start of next week looks potentially stormy with the risk of some damaging winds over Southern Britain for a time. Temperatures are likely to be average for most of the time but with all the wind and rain it will feel chilly for much of the time too. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

Could you pop your location into your profile? At the moment the north should escape the worst Currently Manchester north we're looking at gusts speeds ranging from around 25mph to 36mph Where as in Cornwall we're looking at 67mph gusts This is what the met office currently think (time of day top right)