Summer Sun

As said above GFS seems to be moving towards ECM this afternoon once that low pulls away we get what looks to be a weak ridge of high pressure

This is GFS at 00z And UKMO for the same time The ECM ens isn't far off the Op either Op

So for Monday the big 3 all offer different solutions for this low with GFS looking the worst currently Out of the 3 ECM is probably the one which would bring the lightest winds Quite a big difference between GFS and ECM at just t120

Very windy Wet Gales developing, becoming cooler http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131023

29c still in Sydney at 19:22 local time 09:22 UK time

Portugal rainBalearic showersIssued: 05:30hrs Wednesday 23rd October 2013 Duty forecaster: Garry Nicholson Breezy in the Baltic, fine for Greece and Turkey Wednesday Outbreaks of rain spread into Portugal during Wednesday, whilst much of Spain sees a fine day. Some thundery rain affects the Balearics, southern France and also northern Italy . However, fine and warm conditions affect southern Italy, and extend through the Balkan states, plus Greece and Turkey. Some showery rain affects western France, with cloudy skies and outbreaks of patchy rain in southern Germany. A few heavier showers for Switzerland, although mostly dry for Austria and Hungary. Fine conditions also affect Poland and Ukraine. Northern Germany and Denmark may see a few showers, with cloudy skies through much of the Baltic, although feeling mild. Outbreaks of rain are likely for Finland . Persistent showers in western Norway, with breezy conditions. Thursday Persistent and heavy falls of rain for western Iberia during Thursday, although southern and eastern Spain remains mostly dry. The Balearics are mostly dry and fine, although a few showers are likely in Italy. Greece and Turkey stay fine and warm. Mostly dry conditions affect France, although fairly cloudy in the west. Switzerland will see sunny spells, whilst a few showers may affect Austria. Germany too should see sunny spells through the day with light winds. More cloud affects eastern Europe, with some patchy rain for Poland and Ukraine. Blustery westerly winds affect Scandinavia, with sunny spells and the odd shower possible. Western Norway will see more persistent showery rain through the day. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20131023

Latest from Gibby All models continue to programme unsettled weather for the reliable future with the next three to four days agreed upon by all output. The mild SSW flow of recent days is replaced by a fresher Westerly flow, still somewhat showery but less heavy and thundery than of late. A ridge is then shown to move up across the UK tonight and tomorrow with a window of dry and bright weather for all tomorrow. By Friday a new Low will be showing it's hand towards the South and West with cloud and heavy rain moving NE across England and Wales through the day. This then becomes absorbed by a large Atlantic depression up to the NW to make way for a very windy and unsettled weekend with showers or longer spells of rain in near gale West or SW winds for all and temperatures back down to average levels or maybe a little below in the North where it may become chilly enough by the beginning of next week for some hill snow over Scotland. GFS then shows a small but vigorous Low crossing East over Britain early next week with gales and heavy rain for all, severe on Western coasts for a time. This then is followed by a temporary rather chilly showery NW flow before a weak ridge moves East across the UK around midweek and in turn followed by a return to cloud and mild SW winds with rain by the end of the week. This then paves the way for the rest of the run as Northern and Western areas become most prone to strong winds and rain at times while the South and East close to higher pressure over Europe sees only occasional rain on weakening cold fronts as they pass through. It would be relatively mild over the UK but not as mild as recently. UKMO looks very disturbed this morning for early next week with a chilly and strong NW flow next Tuesday following a potentially stormy spell for a time early in the week. Most areas would see some sunshine but squally showers and with temperatures much lower than of late some snow over Northern mountains would be likely. GEM today brings back it's vicious little Low crossing England and Wales early next week with potential gales, possibly damaging in places buffeting Wales and Southern England for a time along with heavy rain. As it clears the weather becomes showery and then calms down briefly under a transient ridge before further Low pressure and attendant rain and showers take over for all again before the end of next week. Temperatures would be near or perhaps a little below for a time in the NW flow in the wake of the Low early next week but all this is academic in the strength of the wind as it would feel chilly everywhere. NAVGEM is also very disturbed next week with trough and Low pressure streaming over the UK through the week with spells of rain alternating with showers. It would be windy with gales at times though without the storm system shown by some other output nothing out of the ordinary is shown by NAVGEM. Temperatures would be close to normal overall, perhaps rather cold in the North at times. ECM brings the disturbance next week just that bit further South which would take any real strong winds down over France. However, it is close enough to provide a lot of rain following a wet weekend for the South. Later in the run pressure rises somewhat over the South with the strongest winds left for Scotland while Southern areas though rather cloudy and damp will see some drier interludes in much less wind than previously. Near average temperatures look likely for all from ECM next week. The GFS Ensembles show an oscillating pattern between the members suggesting a mobile pattern alternating between mild and wet weather with cooler and showery weather through the next few weeks. There is a more definitive dip in temperatures early next week, which proves short-lived when rainfall is at it's peak. Thereafter the rainfall will not be quite as pronounced in the South with some drier interludes in between the rain. Winds from most members are shown to be fresh to strong for most of the UK for much of the run. The Jet Stream shows the flow currently to the South of the UK moving North over the coming days to the UK where it continues to blow over in an oscillating fashion for the foreseeable future. In Summary today the outlook remains disturbed, often windy and potentially stormy for a short while. All models bring in some sort of disturbance early next week which ranges from a damaging storm to just a wave depression running East in the flow with no more than a band of wind and rain. Which is right is hard to call at the moment but the potential is there for something rather nasty and will need to be watched in future outputs as the time draws nearer. Outside of that there is plenty of wind, rain and showers for all and with the recent unseasonal warmth behind us we can all expect to feel colder without it ever being very cold. Some output suggests a rise of pressure to the SE which as always in these situations is possible and would send the Jet Stream further North along with the depressions to bring some dry and mild weather back across the SE at times. Having said that it is just one of several options we are likely to see in the output over the coming days as the very volatile situation over the Atlantic continues. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

Latest from Gibby, The one positive is the removal of any major damaging storm system tonight though admittedly the weekend could see some pretty lively gusts in places All models show a Low tracking NNE across Western Sea areas towards the North of Scotland filling steadily. A night of thundery showers or rain at times in very squally winds will be replaced by drier weather filtering across from the West tomorrow. Northern areas may maintain showers for much of tomorrow before the better weather arrives here on Thursday. In the South things slide downhill again on Thursday as a new low approaches from the SW sending troughs North and East across the UK with spells of heavy rain followed by heavy showers again later in the day. As this Low moves further NE a strong Westerly flow takes hold with cooler weather with rain or showers looking prevalent for all over the weekend. GFS takes us through next week with very changeable conditions shown. High pressure is evident over the continent next week and this provides mild and very strong SW winds over the UK with severe gales in the NW. All areas will see fronts cross NE through the week with rain at times, heaviest in the North and West. Later in the run Low pressure digs deeper down over the UK carrying colder and unsettled conditions with heavy rain at times for all for a time before pressure builds again to the SE at the end of the run with milder SW winds returning to the North and dry weather with patchy frost and fog by night in the South. UKMO closes it's run tonight with with a deep Low pressure off Eastern Scotland with a strong cyclonic flow across all of Britain. Severe West or NW gales look likely for all with frequent, squally and thundery showers with hail in places and a little snow over Scottish hills. Temperatures would be close to average with a very cold feel in the breeze. GEM shows a very windy spell too early next week as a deep Low pressure only slowly leaves Eastern Scotland. Strong to gale force Westerly winds will drive showers through with some snow possible on Scottish hills. Temperatures will remain close to average. Later in the week the West and SW looks like seeing the greatest risk from rain as a ridge crosses Britain West to East then builds into High pressure over Central Europe. Deep Low pressure in the NW Atlantic throws small scale features and troughs in towards the UK where they stall to the SW with these areas seeing rain at times while the East and NE become dry, bright and somewhat colder. NAVGEM tonight keeps a Low pressure belt over or just to the North of the UK next week with a strong and cool Westerly flow across the UK with spells of rain and showers for all with some snow on Scottish hills. ECM shows a windy and unsettled weekend lasting into next week in the South as a Low moves slowly East over Northern France maintaining rain at times here. There after things remain very changeable with a brief drier spell in the South before mild SW winds return to all with rain at times and temperatures back up to levels just above average for a time. A cold front crosses SE later in the week with rain clearing to showers on Thursday with the run ending next Friday showing a broad and strong Westerly flow, relatively mild but unstable with rain at times, chiefly in the cooler North. The GFS Ensembles show a typical sine wave pattern tonight indicative of a very mobile and strong Atlantic flow with alternating air masses crossing from the West through the period. Each change of air mass brings it's own spell of rain which is shown to mount up over the period. Winds too will be very strong at times mostly from the West making Northern and Western areas at highest risk of gales or severe gales, particularly late this weekend and early next week. The Jet Stream in the reliable time frame shows a strong flow currently well South in the Atlantic steered North across the UK for the next three to four days before it crosses the UK from a more Westerly point through next week and even further North thereafter. In Summary tonight it's hard to see the wood for the trees as we move into next week with widely varying options shown between the models. The one positive is the removal of any major damaging storm system tonight though admittedly the weekend could see some pretty lively gusts in places, especially in the North and West but in all honesty nothing too extraordinary for this time in Autumn. It doesn't look particularly chilly on tonight's output either with plenty of scope for some occasionally mild days in among the cooler ones. However, things look very undecided next week so I won't comment too much on the latter output tonight and prefer to wait and see what tomorrows runs have to offer. http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

t240 from ECM ends with a deep low centered over Iceland, giving strong winds for Scotland especially the further south you are the less windy it would be

I was comparing the deep lows at t144

A brief respite at t192 Before the next low sweeps across the north of Scotland

t168 sees the low pulling away into Scandinavia and another low is heading for Greenland

Unsurprisingly ECM doesn't follow UKMO's 965mb low Instead we have a cooler northerly Compared to UKMO

Take your pick at t144 GFS GEM UKMO This mornings ECM is fairly similar to this evening GFS run all over to its 12z update very shortly to see which way its going this evening

5.7c on the 15th of October is the lowest temp so far Its a nice & mild 16.8c this afternoon in Darlo with some sunshine felt really pleasant outside

Downgrades often happen who remembers "that ECM" last winter the was a big old downgrade, and I also remember the models hinting at a really deep low hitting the UK think it was around 960mb with around 6 days to go in the end it arrived at around 990mb so that downgraded significantly as well

Sunny and warm at 16.5c

UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Nov 2013 to Wednesday 20 Nov 2013: The mostly unsettled conditions are expected to continue for much of this period, with a trend for rainfall amounts to be slightly above average in the north and west but nearer to average in the south and east. Temperatures during this period are more likely to be a little above average throughout, especially in the south, leading to a lower risk of frost here than can usually be expected at this time of year. There are some indications that towards the end of the period, slightly drier and more settled conditions further south would bring an increased risk of overnight fog, which may be slow to clear at times. Updated: 1239 on Tue 22 Oct 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

And the final long range model for October to update is the Beijing Climate Center For temperatures its going above normal For rainfall its going for average to below average

Very mild overnight in Darlington Overnight low 14.5c Daytime high so far 15.7c Currently 15.4c

Sorry that was my spell checker changing it think I need a better one Very mild overnight in Darlo Overnight low 14.5c Daytime high so far 15.7c Currently 15.4c

13.1c to the 21st 1.9c above average

So today's daily express recon the winds this will be worse than the Great storm of 1987 on Sunday Hmmm I don't think so! Jonathan Powell's quote Hardly "storm of the century" try typical Autumnal weather This paper is rapidly becoming a laughing stock

So the express recon the winds this will be worse than the Great storm of 1987 on Sunday Hmmm I don't think so! JP's quote Hardly "storm of the century" try typical Autumnal weather

And now we have Jamstec in for October which goes cooler than average winter though not quite as cold as last months update Rainfall looks average for all but parts of western Scotland where its shown to be lower than normal and maybe the extreme south west where it could be marginally above average