Summer Sun

The met office have just tweeted this

BBC weather on BBC 1 a few minutes ago some severe weather tomorrow but not for all, gusts maybe hitting 90mph Very wet overnight in the south But once the system pulls away the sun will break through and temperatures will once again hit the mid teens in the south giving a standard autumn day of sunshine and showers

Here the map of the latest warnings

You are now warning free Issued at: 1201 on Sun 27 Oct 2013 Valid from: 0005 on Mon 28 Oct 2013 Valid to: 1200 on Mon 28 Oct 2013 A spell of persistent heavy rainfall is likely to spread across northern parts of both Wales and England as well as parts of the north Midlands during Monday. Strong to gale force west or northwest winds could also develop during Monday morning. The public should be aware of the potential for surface water flooding. Chief Forecaster's assessment A developing storm is expected to reach the UK later on Sunday and track northeastwards across England and Wales on Monday. Heavy rain and strong winds will affect many areas of England and Wales with northern parts of England and north Wales probably escaping the worst of the wind (see the separate wind warnings if you are traveling southwards) but likely to be affected by some very heavy rainfall. This warning has been updated to bring the northern boundary further south. Southern half of the region on the boundary now comes inline with NMM showing little rain hitting the region Areas under the warning still Darlington, Durham, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Redcar and Cleveland, Stockton-on-Tees http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=ne&fcTime=1382918400 Yesterday it covered Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Redcar and Cleveland, Stockton-on-Tees, Durham, Darlington, South Tyneside, Sunderland, Gateshead, North Tyneside, Newcastle upon Tyne, Northumberland South Tyneside, Sunderland, Gateshead, North Tyneside, Newcastle upon Tyne, Northumberland all removed this lunchtime

Yes we have as well it comes as no surprise given the gusts forecast for us are no worse than today

David Cameron chairs emergency meeting with key officials to coordinate plans to protect the public from the approaching storm. An amber weather warning has been issued across large parts of England and Wales as a hurricane-strength storm builds over the Atlantic and moves towards Britain. Meteorologists have warned the fierce winds of up to 80mph and torrential rain - which will first strike the south-west of England - could leave a trail of destruction as the storm sweeps north-east across the country, damaging buildings and bringing down trees and power lines. Prime Minister David Cameron said he had chaired a call with Government departments and agencies to hear about their plans to "ensure people are protected from tonight's storm". Frank Saunders, Chief Forecaster at the Met Office, said: "We are confident that a severe storm will affect Britain on Sunday night and Monday. "We are now looking at refining the details about which areas will see the strongest winds and the heaviest rain.†The much-anticipated storm has been named St Jude after the patron saint of lost causes, whose feast day is tomorrow. Roads may also be hit by flash flooding, bringing rush hour traffic on Monday morning to a halt, and homes could be flooded. Insurance companies have advised households to take steps to protect themselves and their property. People should also establish evacuation plans, place valuable items upstairs to limit flood damage and ensure gutters are clear so water can drain away. The Environment Agency says 20-40mm of rain could fall within six to nine hours. It has teams working to minimise river flood risk, clearing debris from streams and unblocking culverts, and are closely monitoring water levels so they are ready to issue flood warnings if necessary. http://news.sky.com/story/1160250/storm-britain-braced-for-hurricane-speed-winds

Rain warning remains in place for now The warning for strong winds has not surprisingly been removed With gusts only hitting the mid 30's the removal comes at no surprise given they'll be no worse than today's gusts

Right warnings fully updated so here's what we have now Amber wind warning Wales, West and East Midlands, London and South east, south west England, East of England All other areas not listed above have no wind warnings at all with the yellow warnings removed Rain warnings North east and west England, Yorkshire & Humber, West and East Midlands, south west England, Wales All other areas not listed above have no rain warnings

High res NMM model shows we'll miss the rain now, winds no worse than today So all in all it should be a quite day for the NE

Latest warning from the met for the winds only valid till mid day Monday now and it remains at amber with the same areas as before under the amber warning Issued at: 1136 on Sun 27 Oct 2013 Valid from: 0005 on Mon 28 Oct 2013 Valid to: 1200 on Mon 28 Oct 2013 A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across England and Wales early on Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell for southern parts of the UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding, while the winds will lead to some very large waves around our coasts. There remains slight uncertainty in the timing, intensity and track of the low as well as the northern limit of the strongest winds. However, the public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies. The public should also consider adjusting travel plans. This warning has been updated to bring forward the end time. The public are advised to monitor the website for possible further updates. Chief Forecaster's assessment A developing storm is expected to reach the UK later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, across England and Wales during Monday, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. We are expecting gusts of 60-70 mph widely and locally over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in the southwesterly winds ahead of the low centre and west to northwesterly winds behind it. 20 to 40 mm of rain may fall within 6 to 9 hours, leading to localised flooding, especially where drainage is impeded by wind-blown debris. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400&regionName=uk

The average number of days with air frosts for Darlo based on the 81 to 10 average is 1.9

A quick reminder whilst its quite in here and more so for any new members the models are out 1 hour earlier from today until Saturday 29th March 2014 So for the next 21 weeks / 153 days the 12z outputs will start around 15:30 with GFS, 17:00 with UKMO and 18:00 with ECM

Increase to 13.2c to the 26th 2.2 above average

Stormy in South Monday Unsettled for the Week Often wet & windy http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131027

Latest from Gibby on this low All models seem to have downgraded the storm system to some degree this morning. A depression of around 985mbs will run across Wales deepening to 970mbs as it exits the East coast tomorrow. Winds will become gale or severe gale force across Southern Britain late tonight with the strongest winds looking likely across Eastern areas and the English Channel tomorrow morning. Storms will die down later in the day with decreasing NW winds with showers for most. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78188-model-output-discussion-17th-oct-onwards/?p=2817474

Latest from Gibby All models seem to have downgraded the storm system to some degree this morning. A depression of around 985mbs will run across Wales deepening to 970mbs as it exits the East coast tomorrow. Winds will become gale or severe gale force across Southern Britain late tonight with the strongest winds looking likely across Eastern areas and the English Channel tomorrow morning. Storms will die down later in the day with decreasing NW winds with showers for most. By the middle of the week Southern areas will become dry for a time as a ridge crosses East before all parts of the UK become unsettled again with rain or showers and average temperatures by the end of the week. GFS continues it's changeable theme throughout it's second half of the run with spells of wind and rain as deep low pressures cross over or to the North of the UK with spells of rain and showers for all. There is some drier and brighter spells too though with some clear skies at night possibly leading to the formation of mist and fog patches and a touch of frost. Other than that it looks like staying relatively mild for the time of year but rather cold at times in the North following the passage of cold fronts. UKMO closes it's run with Low pressure to the North of the UK with smaller disturbances near Southern Britain meaning an overall unsettled pattern to end the week with sunshine and blustery showers in the North with the chance of more prolonged rainfall in the South at times. GEM too shows a lot of unsettled and windy weather through the coming 10 days or so with spells of windy and wet weather with some short drier and brighter weather in between. Temperatures would alternate between just above and below average but no real frost problems look likely. NAVGEM also shows a better period in the South later in the week as a ridge passes over the UK. Later in the run Low pressure propels itself in from the West with strong winds again for all along with heavy rain and showers. Temperatures would remain close to average. ECM today looks very disturbed in it's later part of the run with Low pressure over or to the North of the UK totally dominant with showers and longer spells of rain for all in average temperatures overall but with some rather colder interludes at times. The GFS Ensembles show a change to quieter weather in the South midweek in an otherwise windy and unsettled period over the next two weeks. Rain and strong winds feature regularly between the members and it will feel chilly in the polar maritime air masses behind each depression. With the seasonal average falling steadily through early November we have to cater for expecting that even average temperatures can provide opportunity for night time frosts and lower than we have been used to daytime temperatures than of late. The Jet Stream continues to power across the Atlantic and over the British isles for the long haul though it does weaken over Southern Britain temporarily midweek as it moves North for a while. In Summary unsettled is the term to use when describing the output this morning. All areas can continue to expect showers or spells of rain at times but some drier and brighter interludes in the South at times too, particularly midweek. Temperatures will create no real problems over the period with only limited frost and fog patches but winds could be quite lively at times though there is no real repeat of tomorrow's expected storm being shown today. http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Fine across Balkans, Adriatic Region dryVery Windy, Unsettled in NorthIssued: 0530hrs Sunday 27 October 2013 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Stormy Northern Europe Monday Today Windy with showers across England and France today with more persistent rain expected across eastern France, and up across Belgium and Holland. Spells of rain are also forecast for Norway, Sweden and Denmark. Much of Germany should be mainly dry with variable cloud and sunny spells. Rather cloudy across much of eastern Europe with outbreaks of rain from Russia across the Baltic States, down through Belarus and Poland. Cool but dry with sunny spells across Finland. Expect a good deal fine, pleasantly mild and dry weather across the Adriatic Region and down through the Balkans into Turkey. It should also be pleasantly warm and sunny across all of Italy this extends westward across Corsica and Sardinia to the Balearics and through Spain with the warmest temperatures across the south of Spain. Southwesterly gales are likely across northern France through the channel, across England to Low Countries and northern Germany. Monday A stormy day to come across southern England and northern France storm force wind. Heavy rain in the south of England spreads north replaced by showers. Outbreaks of rain will also affect Belgium, Holland, Denmark and Germany. Much of France will be fair and dry with the best of the sunshine in the south and some rain in the far north. Unsettled with an area of rain expected across Norway, Sweden and this looks to become heavy across Finland down through the Baltic States into Belarus and Russia. Apart from a few showers in the east, much of Poland should be fair and dry. High pressure will keep Ukraine, Romania, the Adriatic Region and the Balkans settled and dry with sunny spells. Perhaps more cloud today across Italy but it should remain mainly dry. Mostly sunny across Corsica, Sardinia, the Balearics and much of Spain while rain moves into Portugal in the afternoon. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=EuropeanSummary

06z has the low no deeper than 980mb over the UK it does deepen but only once its well away from the UK By 06z its already pulling away By lunchtime its well away and winds will be rapidly easing The period of around 02:00 to 09:00 looks like the worst time when winds are likely to be strongest in the south

960mb low next weekend from ECM This slowly eases away into the following week ECM ensemble has the low at 985mb Next weekends potential low will be easier for the met office as its coming from a more common area the one over the next 24hrs or so is unusual as it will get deeper the closer it gets to the UK

Looks like a nice downgrade from GFS this morning things look further south to me By Lunchtime tomorrow its pulled away UKMO also looks a tad further south

Poor weather conditions forecast on Sunday 27 and Monday 28 October Route affected Most routes across central and southern England and Wales Train operating compaines affected Arriva Trains Wales; Chiltern Railways; CrossCountry; East Midlands Trains; First Great Western; First Hull Trains; First TransPennine Express; Grand Central; Heathrow Connect; Heathrow Express; London Midland; London Overground; Northern Rail; Virgin Trains; Description Heavy rain and high winds are forecast across central and southern England and Wales on Sunday night and into Monday. This may mean that some trains are delayed or cancelled, and some Train Operators are running amended timetables. Road conditions are also expected to be hazardous, so please allow extra time to reach the station and allow extra time for connecting trains. The following train operators have confirmed either amended timetables or the possibility of amended timetables. Please use the links for the latest information: [*]c2c [*]East Coast [*]First Capital Connect [*]Greater Anglia & Stansted Express [*]South West Trains [*]Southeastern [*]Southern & Gatwick Express http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service_disruptions/60152.aspx

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #037ISSUED: 1700UTC SATURDAY 26TH OCTOBER 2013 SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - WALES, ENGLAND (EXCEPT NORTHERN)HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO A RISK OF LOCALISED FLOODING - NORTH WALES, NORTHERN ENGLAND IN EFFECT FROM 0000UTC UNTIL 2000UTC MONDAY 28TH OCTOBER 2013 RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM BRINGING SEVERE GALES AND DAMAGING GUSTS, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE NORTHERN FLANK DISCUSSION: THERE IS GOOD MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE SUFFICIENT FOR ADVANCED WARNING OF A LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER IN THE EARLY HOURS TRANSITING TO THE EAST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON, IN WHICH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 970MB. THE INTENSE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE 40-50MPH MEAN WINDS ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHERN UK, WITH GUSTS TO 70MPH INLAND WHILE STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLY ABOVE 90MPH MAY AFFECT COASTS AND HIGH GROUND OF SOUTHWEST ENGLAND, SOUTH WALES AND AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WINDS STRONGER THAN 70MPH MAY BE BROUGHT TO SURFACE INLAND OF THESE AREAS THROUGH ENGLAND WHERE LOWER LAYER INSTABILITY EXISTS, PARTICULARLY IN DAYLIGHT HOURS. ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM, INTENSE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY ACCUMULATE 40MM WITHIN AROUND 9HRS PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGH GROUND OF NORTH WALES AND ACROSS NORTHERN ENGLAND, LEADING TO A RISK OF EXCESS SURFACE WATER AND FLASH FLOODING. THIS WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED WITH FURTHER DETAIL. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA. http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html Synopsis Upper trough will migrate northeastwards across the British Isles throughout the forecast period, followed by a second, sharpening upper trough over the Atlantic - the culprit for the explosive development of low pressure 'Christian'. Cool mid-levels overspreading warm SSTs will promote another day of convection, particularly near windward coasts. Discussion ... EAST ANGLIA, SE ENGLAND ... Occlusion (quasi-cold front) will continue to clear eastwards out to the North Sea between 00z-04z, with further line segment elements along the front as a result of strong DLS near the rear edge (40-60kts). Given low LCLs and slight veering of surface winds, there is a low risk of a short-lived tornado.... SW ENGLAND, SW WALES ...Main risk period is 00z-11z as a couple of shortwaves cross the area, associated with lines of deep convection. A few hundred J/kg and ELTs down to -40C suggests some lightning is possible with the strongest cells, and given 20-40kts DLS, increasing throughout the day as the upper jet approaches, such cells will be organised capable of producing some hail (locally up to 2.0cm in diameter), strong, gusty winds and perhaps a tornado given low LCLs.Showers will be replaced by frontal shield and rain as next low pressure system, 'Christian', approaches from the southwest with strong but largely non-convective-induced winds overnight. ... W SCOTLAND ...Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the area for much of the forecast period, and with 20-30kts DLS forming bands at times and bringing the risk of local surface flooding. Strong LLS and low LCLs suggests the potential for short-lived waterspouts/tornadoes in any stronger, well-organised cells. Hail up to 1.5cm in diameter is also possible.Showers will affect many other areas through the day, and with strong low-level shear and helicity, some well-organised cells may exhibit some supercellular characteristics. http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/292

Latest from Gibby All models show an unsettled and windy end to the weekend with a steady deterioration in conditions as tomorrow evolves. A SW wind will blow a trough through East overnight with a short squally band of rain. Following on behind will be a period of showers and clear or sunny intervals as Low pressure moves East t the North of Scotland. Some of the showers will be very heavy with hail and thunder possible in places accompanied by a strong and gusty WSW wind. Things will briefly calm down tomorrow afternoon in the SW though this will be the lull before the storm. THE STORM SYSTEM GFS takes the storm across Wales and the Midlands at a pressure of 975mbs falling to 970mbs as it exits Eastern England. All of Southern Britain could be affected by winds with gusts to 70mph + in exposed locations and near Bristol Channel and English Channel Coasts in the wake of the Low. UKMO has the Low tracking into Pembrokeshore at 980mbs in the early hours of Monday morning, then crossing it through the Midlands and exiting the east Coast at 970mbs with the strongest WNW 70mph+ winds affecting SW and all of Southern England in the wake of the Low with the strongest gusts near the South and Bristol Channel coasts. GEM has a much less developed feature tonight at around 980mbs along the same path as the other output. Strengths of wind would be modified as a result at between 60-70mph in the strongest gusts near coastal headlands and hills. NAVGEM shows the Low as a vigorous and rapidly deepening feature at around 980mbs reaching the Western Bristol Channel and moving rapidly ENE across the Midlands and out into the North Sea at sub 970mbs. The wwind strengths would be around 80mph with the strongest gusts in the WNW flow in the rapidly rising pressure behind the Low. ECM shows the Low crossing Wales at 975mbs on Monday morning and on ENE into the North Sea on Monday afternoon at sub 970mbs with Westerly or NW severe gales or storm force winds buffeting the South of England and South Wales for a time through the day. Following the storm GFS settles things down quite quickly as pressure rises rapidly from the West and a ridge crosses the UK midweek. This holds for a day or two across Southern Britain while the North and West quickly become influenced by a strong SW flow with rain at times. Things would turn milder again for many. Through the remainder of the run the Atlantic continues to hold the calling cards as Low pressure remains to the North of the UK with rain and strong westerly winds and just short drier and cooler interludes, these chiefly in the North. UKMO shows pressure higher for a time across the South midweek before Low pressure regains some control later with a strong Westerly flow returning. It will be relatively mild though through most of Britain to end next week. GEM keeps things very buoyant across the Atlantic and the UK with mild SW winds continuing to carry spells of rain and strong winds across the UK, very strong at times as some intense Low pressures pass by. Late in the run temperatures may fall back a little as an air source from Greenland develops. NAVGEM keeps pressure High close to the South for a time midweek and a little way after before a deep Atlantic Low to the NW steers strong and mild SW winds back to all areas with rain and showers at times. ECM shows a quiet and more sedate spell of weather midweek with the South becoming dry at times. Later in the week Low pressure returns from the North with wet and windy spells for all again with temperatures falling back to average levels and considerably lower at the end of the run as low pressure drags cold air South behind a low moving South of the UK. The GFS Ensembles show a very wide spread from quite early in the run. There are more members on the mild side of the run with few showing much in the way of colder weather. Low pressure will be dominant throughout with a Westerly bias to the winds. The Jet Stream continues to look like blowing strongly across the Atlantic and across the UK for the foreseeable future. In Summary leaving the storm system aside on Monday the weather continues to look volatile and often windy with spells of rain and showers for all. Temperatures will generally hold out well with little chance of frost or fog. A drier interlude looks very possible though for the South at least towards the middle of the coming week. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

London & South East England latest text forecast from the met Outlook for Monday to Wednesday: Potentially damaging winds and heavy rain for a time Monday, with squally showers following. Tuesday, sunny spells and showers with winds easing but feeling colder. Wednesday, further rain at times. UK wide outlook Outlook for Monday to Wednesday: Rain and damaging winds continuing to move northeast across southern parts on Monday. Remaining generally unsettled and colder Tuesday and Wednesday with strong winds, showers and longer spells of rain.

Next weekend could see round 2 GEM's take Bonfire night looks stormy as well Now for GFS a lot further north with a completely different position for the low compared to GEM Bonfire night also looks unsettled from GFS but not quite as bad as GEM Way out in FI but the PV is heading to western Greenland