Summer Sun

Low pressure to our west dragging up mild air If t168 comes off the early gains of snow in parts of Scandinavia could be lost quite quickly

ECM out to t144 and it remains unsettled with it becoming increasingly mild

I thought I heard a bang outside thought my ears were playing me up! We've had 5.1mm from it so far

The main band of rain has now cleared only give around 3 hours of rain

The US government shut down has ended after 16 days so we should be able to access data from the USA again shortly

For a short time yes but look what it leads to

Some cooler uppers push into Scotland later on in GFS's run but thats as far as they get Looks like the PV is going to get a move on as well

Where ever the low ends up it will be bringing some rather mild 850's

All we know is where ever he's gone he's unable to post here again

If thats the one about the ensembles going colder into November then he's wrong http://null/TWO/ensembles/ Even Moscow is trending well above average from next week after there early blast of cold weather

Brian Gaze over at TWO has issued his initial winter thoughts You can read the full initial thoughts here

Wet and breezy 10.7c a high of 12.2 so far once this rain clears through the milder air will be with all of England, wales and Ireland

GFS ensemble shows little end in sight for the westerly winds as a result mid and unsettled looks like lasting for a long time yet Ensemble to start November GFS Op to start November Both are in agreement that pressure stays low over Greenland

UK As far as I know

UK Outlook for Thursday 31 Oct 2013 to Thursday 14 Nov 2013: The unsettled and slightly milder than average conditions expected towards the end of October will probably carry over into the first week of November, leading to slightly above average rainfall amounts for some regions, especially in the north and west. Temperatures during this period are thought more likely than not to be close to or a little above average throughout, especially in the south, leading to a lower risk of frost here than can usually be expected at this time of year. There are some indications that during the second week of November northern parts become most likely to be affected by unsettled weather whilst slightly more settled conditions further south would bring an increased risk of overnight frost and fog. Updated: 1236 on Wed 16 Oct 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

And here comes the rain and the change to milder air

We could even get an equal split this year if this month finishes above average (looks very likely) and November & December follow that would make it equal January to June below average July to December above average So far March (unsurprisingly) is the coldest month 3.0c below average And July is the warmest month so far 2.3c above average

Roger J Smith updated his blog a few days back http://www.gavsweathervids.com/rogerjsmith.html

The change to milder weather is also underway now in the south west where the sky has cleared and the sun is shining with it temperatures are in the high teens down there the change to milder weather will get to all of the England, wales and Ireland once this rain clears through. Tomorrow looks a lot brighter and also milder

Terry Scholey's mid October to mid November forecast Looks like remaining mild into November but possibly turning colder as we move to mid month Full detailed forecast here

13.2c to the 15th 1.6c above average If we finish above average this month it will be the 4 successive above average one

Unsettled Mild Often windy http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131016

Latest from Gibby All models show a front moving NE across the UK today. It will carry rain NE too, heavy in places but not everywhere. The rain band will become slow moving over the far North tonight and tomorrow while all other areas see clearer and milder weather move in behind the rain later this morning in the SW and elsewhere this afternoon and tonight. A few showers will follow but mostly scattered and confined to the West. Tomorrow sees this showery mix prevail when it will feel quite warm in the sunshine. After that further troughs and Low pressure areas in the Eastern Atlantic dominate our weather maintaining mild and windy weather with rain at times, some heavy through Friday and the weekend with just brief brighter intervals. It may still feel chilly at times in the North though. GFS then shows all of next week largely the same with showers or longer periods of rain for all in mostly mild SW winds as deep Low pressure crosses the NW. Towards the end of the week a brief colder interlude may develop as a weak ridge crosses East behind one such depression before the pattern resets for the end of the run with strong winds and heavy rain sweeping East. UKMO closes it's run with the UK bathed in a warm and moist SSW flow with Low pressure positioned out in the Eastern Atlantic SW of Ireland. All areas would see rather mild weather with a lot of cloudy skies with spells of rain or showers a frequent event for many. The East would see the best of the drier and brighter spells. GEM today shows a vigorous Low pressure moving North up the Western Coasts of the UK through next week with gale force Southerly and then SW winds with bands of heavy rain sweeping through followed by showers. In the wake of this Low further secondary features sweeping NE keep the pot boiling with further wet and windy weather in maintained mild conditions throughout in the South though the trend towards colder conditions over the North is shown late in the run. NAVGEM also shows Low pressure just to the West of the UK with fronts crossing North and East over all areas at times delivering bands of rain and showers throughout. On it's run temperatures stay close to or above average throughout for all. ECM shows unsettled weather too next week with a brief ridge early in the week offering the South and East something drier and brighter for a brief while. However, by midweek all areas become subject to strong winds and rain as Low pressure regains total control parked to the West and NW of Britain with mild conditions still maintained for most. The GFS Ensembles show a sustained mild spell with plenty of rain at times for all areas in predominantly South or SW winds. The cooler interlude offered by the operational run for the North was not supported to any great degree with most members opting for just a plain and traditional often windy, mild and wet October period. The Jet Stream shows the new Southern arm of the Jet Stream is now the dominant player for the foreseeable future swallowing up the weakened Northern arm and maintaining a position close to Southern Britain from now on. In Summary the models have pretty much settled now on a prolonged and unsettled period of traditional wet and windy October weather. It won't be raining all the time and all ares will see some drier and quite warm weather in between the bands of showers. Night times could see temperatures unusually mild at times in the long fetch South or SW drift. Conversely and on the negative side some of the rainfall could be heavy and driven on by an often strong South or SW wind. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Spain heatRain for FranceIssued: 0530hrs Wednesday 16th October 2013 Duty forecaster: Garry Nicholson Rain sweeps through France, thundery showers for Greece Wednesday Outbreaks of rain affect the north-west of Iberia, whilst southern Spain sees a dry and very warm day, with dry and fine conditions extending across the Balearics. Northern Italy should also stay dry with sunny spells, although showers are expected in southern Italy during the day. Unsettled conditions affect the Balkan states, Hungary and Greece, with gusty winds and outbreaks of rain, heavy and thundery at times. Western Turkey may also see showers although it is drier to the east. Heavy rain extends across much of northern and western France during the day, although southern France remains mostly dry but cloudy. Central Europe is mostly dry, with some sunny spells for Germany. Switzerland and Austria will see fairly cloudy conditions, with some light rain in eastern Austria and the Czech Republic. Rain also affects southern Poland. Scandinavia will see mostly fine conditions, although with cloudier skies in Denmark, southern Sweden and the Baltic states, with the chance of a shower. Northern parts of Norway and Sweden are likely to see sunny spells but feeling chilly. Thursday Southern Spain and Portugal will have another dry and very warm day. Cloudier skies affect north-western Iberia, with some drizzly light rain possible. Fine conditions also extend through the Mediterranean, with warm sunshine for the Balearics and Italy. Southern Italy and Sicily will see more cloud, with risk of a shower early in the day. Much of the Balkans will have a fair day with sunny spells, although with a few showers for Greece. An area of heavy and thundery rain should clear through Cyprus overnight, and affects western Turkey during Thursday with some heavy downpours likely. France sees a brighter day with good sunny spells across the country. Fine conditions extend through the Alpine states and across southern Germany. Eastern Europe is also mostly fine, with sunny spells for Hungary, although more cloud for Poland and Ukraine. Northern Germany is breezy and fairly cloudy, with outbreaks of rain in the north. Blustery showers affect Denmark, which may merge into longer spells of rain. Sweden is likely to be cloudy with rain in the south, although fairly mild. Much of the Baltic is cloudy with rain at times. Brighter but cooler conditions affect Norway, with showers around western coasts. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20131016

Similar to GFS then its bound to move at some point