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Gordon Webb

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    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, ItIsGee said:

    Netweather chart viewer shows wind convergence if you look through them!

     

    heavyrain.png

     

     

    1 minute ago, Lance M said:

    I'm sure others might have something more apt, but I would say try windy.com and go into the settings to make the wind arrows more dense/fast/bigger, you can then drag the slider at the bottom through the upcoming hours and you get a good sense of the CZs. The model you're viewing can be changed bottom right

    thanks to you both

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    amazing how one run was been told to not be taken at face value

    seems to go out the window when peoples favorite weather and heat and storms are concerned

    hope you are all not building yourselves for an almighty disappointment

    going to take a couple of days away otherwise the drool from this thread might seep through my monitor onto my keyboard

    good luck everybody

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Mmmm as others have said no real clarity how things may pan out as we move through the middle of the month. In the short term, we have large uncertainty, where will the trough dropping through the UK position itself, how strong will low heights become and where will the central core of these be.

    If this was mid winter and you like snow, then the synoptical evolution Wed- Friday is a dream, a frontal system pepping up as it moves through the UK under cold uppers bringing widespread snow, then a long long fetch NE snow showers galore, trough features embedded and a long drawn easterly - air source east of the Urals, alas I'm getting carried away and it is June not January more is the pity..

    Models suggesting a slack humid airstream enveloping the UK over the weekend and into the following weekend, showers, thunderstorms could occur almost anywhere, lots of cloud away from the north and north west as well, muggy conditions. Not very inspiring, rather have a dry sunny day high teens, than a cloudy muggy feel with mid 20's temps.

    Longer term - no sign the azores high coming our way anytime soon, this leaves the UK exposed a negatively aligned atlantic trough scenario, further low pressure sneaking into the UK, could end up cyclonic.

    Interesting charts from a weather enthusiast who prefers a non traditional westerly airstream, continuing the theme since mid March.

    Ain't it typical the Scots are told to stay at home in potentially the best of the weather but it good old England we can go out and get soaked to our hearts content , at least those worried about crowded beaches might have less to worry about

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Weather Boy said:

    Quite. Today looked like an absolute stinker a week ago.

     

    Furthermore - I know this is is model output discussion but- it's interesting to note that apparently neither Meto or BBC are backing the apocalyptic scenario being painted by some on this site.

     

    The models are not at one. Professional forecasts suggest that those showing an extremely wet scenario do not represent the form horse. Nobody knows but I suggest that ark building is not yet required.

    need to be a much bigger ark with the new social distancing requirement , they all went in 2 by 2 2 meters apart

    • Like 3

    Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Day 2 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 27 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 28 Aug 2019

    ISSUED 20:33 UTC Mon 26 Aug 2019

    ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

    A sharp upper trough will approach the British Isles from the Altantic, as a frontal boundary moves into Ireland. A shortwave trough will also move northwards across Britain during day and this will help to trigger scattered thunderstorms by mid-to-late Tuesday afternoon and into the evening. 

    Elevated morning convection may still be ongoing across southwestern portions of England and Wales at 0600 although this should weaken through the morning before the diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms re-develop. 

    High surface temperatures (in excess of 30C in places) across central and eastern Britain will help to generate up to 1000 J/kg of CAPE by the afternoon. Steep lapse rates will also be present, although the main area of instability will be displaced slightly east of the shortwave that will move northeastwards across the Midlands by mid-afternoon. Deep layer shear through early afternoon will be around 30kts (although decreasing into the late afternoon and evening). The combination of shear and instability may trigger some severe weather during the early phase of the thunderstorm development. A supercell or two could be possible for a time producing hail up to 2cm in diameter.

    The deep, rather high based convection (due in part to the surface temp and dew-point separation) is being triggered in the high res models around 1300-1400 in southern and western portions of the SLIGHT risk area before growing upscale as it moves northeastwards into a small MCS. The remnants of the MCS will move off the coast of NE England / SE Scotland around or just after midnight. 

    A MODERATE risk will be considered for subsequent updates primarily for parts of Cambridgeshire, Lincolnshire and south Yorkshire providing model consensus improves. 

    http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-27

    looks like all the activity will be mainly to my east as I'm barely in the slight risk zone which suits me fine as I have 2 overgrowing lawns that need my attention and I suspect Lightning , torrential rain and lawnmowers won't mix well together

    Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Gordon Webb

    2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

    Overnight it looks marginal for this area but for those further west there’s better potential for something - but I doubt anywhere is going to see anything spectacular.

    During the day tomo the risk moves further north into the midlands (quell surprise!) and the far south doesn’t seem particularly primed for anything.

    In short: it’s pretty much business as usual with the south east getting little in terms of lightning, rain or even cloud - but maybe more luck for those further inland

    well according to Metcheck they have the risk starting in Northern England tomorrow afternoon then extending south to the midlands and NE England later but they will update tomorrow after overnight model runs so nothing set in stone whatsoever

    Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Day 2 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 09 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 10 Aug 2019

    ISSUED 21:58 UTC Thu 08 Aug 2019

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    An upper low will swing northeastwards across Ireland on Friday, reaching Scotland by Saturday morning. An occluding frontal system will stretch from Northern Ireland to southern Scotland and northern and eastern England first thing on Friday morning, gradually lifting northwards through the day. Pockets of embedded elevated convection will be possible, although pinpointing exactly where some sporadic lightning may occur is near-impossible and overall is not expected to be too widespread.

     

    A wrap-around occlusion will provide for the focus for a band of heavy, showery rain over the Celtic Sea and southern Ireland on Friday morning, encircling the main surface low. This whole system, including band(s) of showers / showery rain, will gradually migrate northeastwards across the whole of Ireland and Irish Sea into Wales, western and northern England and southern Scotland. Some sporadic lightning will be possible in places, but dependent somewhat on sufficient cloud breaks to allow adequate surface heating in-between the showers.

     

    Either way, strong steering winds will ensure relatively fast movement of individual showers across England and Wales, although this high momentum may be mixed down to the surface at times in downdrafts to produce some gusty winds. Since a single shower is unlikely to last for long, this will ultimately limit how much rain accumulates - but elements of shower training could occur which may exacerbate existing saturated ground. An isolated tornado will be possible given strong low-level shear.

    Over Ireland, the proximity to the upper low will result in more "pulse type" convection given weaker shear and slower storm motion, which brings the risk of localised flooding from prolonged downpours.

     

    In-between the early morning frontal rain clearing and the first (of many) wrap-around portions of the occlusion arriving, a window of clearer sky will exist for better diurnal heating across northern England and southern Scotland. Given surface dewpoints of 15-19C (at least for a time early afternoon), up to 1,000 J/kg CAPE will be possible. A strip of dry mid-level air will overlay this warm, moist low-level airmass, creating a rather unstable environment with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates. If sufficient heating can occur, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms could develop.

    The main risk period with a favourable overlap of various ingredients will be 10z-15z, but there could be a second wave of showers/thunderstorms late afternoon lingering well into the evening hours. Given the potential for a couple of waves of shower/thunderstorm activity, a low-end MDT has been issued. Given the sheared environment, a supercell may be possible, capable of producing hail up to 2.0cm in diameter and perhaps an isolated tornado.

    Looks like Northern England and Southern Scotland the Places to be again

    http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-09

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