Gordon Webb

this is a sentiment i can agree with

make taking the picture harder though

and all going East To West , at least here anyway

Dans forecast has been updated again not going to post it all again as the only difference I see is this line Portions of the West Midlands / east Wales could also experience marginally-severe wind gusts

wonder what those in the SE are thinking with Dans forecast with this line Scattered thunderstorms are likely across parts of Wales, the Midlands and East Anglia, these migrating generally northwestwards into northern England I think I can hear it now : not this again hope this isn't the pattern for the next 3 months or so well think on the bright side you can go chasing from Monday

yep copy and paste worked , simplest ways always the best thanks

just updated Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 11 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 12 May 2021 ISSUED 06:29 UTC Tue 11 May 2021 ISSUED BY: Dan Upper trough will sharpen and become increasingly negatively-tilted as it lifts northwards across England and Wales on Tuesday. The net result is increasing PVA/divergence on the forward flank of this feature, aiding broad lift/ascent. Scattered showers will already be present across parts of SW England and Wales initially, and diurnal heating inland will yield 300-600 J/kg CAPE with showers become more numerous with time through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are likely across parts of Wales, the Midlands and East Anglia, these migrating generally northwestwards into northern England. Upscale growth seems likely into an area of showery rain over northern England and southern Scotland by the evening hours, and this may result in a gradual decline in lightning activity as a result (aside from isolated pockets such as on the western flank into SW Scotland etc). Particular attention is given to Yorks/Lincs/Derbys/Notts/Leics/Norfolk which, combined with 30-40kts bulk shear, will likely see increasing low-level shear as surface winds back and strengthen through the afternoon. This could encourage updrafts to rotate, presenting the risk of an isolated tornado and/or wind gusts to 40-50mph. However, some concerns about cloud amounts/moist profiles exist. A separate round of shower/thunderstorm activity may intensify over the north Midlands into northern England through the evening hours, so it is possible some locations may experience two waves of activity before a gradual weakening towards midnight. Further areas of showery rain associated with a wrap-around occlusion will also move into SW England, although this could tend to fragment and turn more convective through the afternoon/evening hours (especially south Wales / West Country / SW Midlands). Within this area non-mesocyclonic funnel clouds/weak tornado may be possible. Showery rain will also affect southern Ireland, but parts of Munster could see some cloud breaks and the chance for heavy showers / isolated lightning in the afternoon hours. Also monitoring a corridor from northern Leinster to western Ulster but forecast profiles are very dry with weak shear so it seems likely any convection may struggle to be sustained for any length of time. Deeper convection and isolated lightning strikes will also be possible in the afternoon/early evening over Caithness/Sutherland. Elevated convection may feed into Aberdeenshire and environs overnight, with perhaps a few isolated lightning strikes - but low confidence. map has also changed slight but am having difficulty posting that Convective Weather CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 17 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 18 Aug 2020 ISSUED 06:27 UTC Mon 17 Aug 2020 ISSUED BY: Dan Upper trough will migrate northwards across Britain and Ireland on Monday, the cold pool aloft serving to increase instability and steepen mid-level lapse rates. Remnants of convective rainfall from Sunday are likely to be affecting parts of southern Scotland, Ireland and perhaps SW Wales / SW England on Monday morning, and while a few isolated lightning strikes are possible the risk is considered rather low. Through the day, diurnal heating of the residual warm, moist low-level airmass with temperatures in the low 20s Celsius and dewpoints in the mid-high teens Celsius will yield 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop across many parts of England and Wales, particularly aided by orographic forcing and low-level convergence zones (such as peninsula convergence). Steering flow will move showers/storms towards the N or NNE initially, but this will veer to the NE by evening. PWAT is lower than previous days, but still 25-30mm, and hence the risk of localised flooding is possible where showers train over similar areas, but overall the impressively high local rainfall totals of the weekend are not expected to be repeated. Shear will be rather weak and so showers/storms will tend to pulse, with daughter cells developing from outflow - the strongest cells could produce gusts 35-40mph and perhaps hail up to 2.0cm in diameter locally. Low cloud bases, enhanced low-level vorticity near convergence boundaries and this magnitude of CAPE suggests that a few funnel clouds or a weak tornado may be possible. Showers/storms are expected to slowly weaken through the evening hours, although may persist close to some southern and western coasts overnight.

wouldn't pay any attention to that forecast they slept through today and lump in Southern UK with northern Netherlands through Germany into northern Italy, Bosnia, Serbia, Poland and Ukraine , as Paul Sherman said the other day they make no effort to discern any possible differences between mainland Europe and the UK and have a 1 size fits all policy besides they had a level 2 the other day which came to absolutely nothing , take with a very substantial pinch of salt

learn something new everyday

does seem that way , all the energy further E is keeping the going , pretty much as forecast

not surprised saw the radar returns

possibility the Spanish grand prix might get a storm

have you eaten?

that's London Stansted Airport for those who may not know

only thunder at the moment seems to be the stuff in East Anglia , Near The Channel and just north of London

cloud was in danger of breaking up for a little while but now seems to normal possibly a little brighter

where is that

do it with a broad enough brush and your bound to be right somewhere , seems to be their philosophy

for anybody who couldn't see the picture I posted in that Tony Gilbert update and haven't checked original post here it is again

sorted it hopefully check the post again

From Tony Gilbert UPDATE 10.30 am As per earlier forecast with following comments; Less surface moisture now compared with earlier models. Forecast soundings showing some minor SB CIN. Though could easily be overcome if 24 degC is achieved. Though this may not occur till fairly late in the day! Upper shear remains moderate. Particularly so for SE where 60 kts expected at 300 mb and around 40 kts at 500 mb. I have therefore added a Severe Thunderstorm risk box for the said region running from 17z through to 22z. Primary risk will be large hail. edit - there is an image but whenever I post it's small and doesn't expand like the original edit 2 - seem to got it

well your still pulling high Theta-W from the low countries well everywhere else slight less is coming in also Nick just issued forecast THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SUN 16TH AUG 2020 Issued 2020-08-16 08:25:58 Valid: 16/08/2020 0600 - 17/08/2020 0600 Forecast Details Upper low over the Bay of Biscay Sunday morning will drift NE across NW France, with upper level high over southern Scandinavia/Baltic Sea. Shallow surface low pressure will cover southern UK, higher pressure towards the north. A warm and moist airmass will continue to advect west from the near continent across much of England and Wales. Trough marked on WV imagery by positive vorticity advection / dry mid-upper air intrusion curling round northern side of upper low and moving NE across NW France and cooler air moving in from the SW is creating ascent and destabilisation of high theta-w plume further north across S England, with a band of heavy rain with embedded lightning crossing the English Channel approaching southern counties of England this morning. The upper trough will slowly advance across N and NE across S England, Wales, Midlands and E Anglia through the morning and afternoon, continuing to lift and destabilise warm/moist airmass across southern UK, instability enhanced should morning cloud break to allow insolation/surface heating develop ahead of the trough, bringing bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms northwards. Meanwhile, surface breeze convergence and increasing amounts of sunshine north of the trough may trigger lines of heavy showers and thunderstorms across Wales, Midlands, southern N England to Lincs. Vertical shear (20-30knts) and mid/upper level S/SEly flow will be stronger today across S and E England, so some organisation of storms appear possible here. Although there will be mid-level instability release as the trough moves north supporting elevated storms, addition of surface heating, should cloud breaks develop, will allow CAPE values to reach 500-1000 j/kg – which may allow strong, perhaps locally severe, surface-based storms to develop this afternoon too – capable of large hail (2-3cm), frequent C-G lightning and strong wind gusts. PWAT values of 32mm and 37mm sampled on Herstmonceux and Nottingham ascents suggests high precipitable water content of the atmosphere, so high rainfall totals in a short space of time from stronger storms may bring localised flash-flooding – strong/severe storms most likely across eastern England this afternoon. Thunderstorms/heavy showers will continue N across England and Wales this evening and overnight, though lightning activity will likely wane with less instability further north. Isolated thunderstorms may continue across Wales, SW England and Channel Islands overnight. Issued by: Nick Finnis just likes other forecasts E England is best today and for storms before the trough sunshine is the key for which I have none

Estofex dead as a doornail again

nothing there on that link edit - correction , now there is hmm a very localised moderate indeed here is the detail Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 16 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 17 Aug 2020 ISSUED 07:24 UTC Sun 16 Aug 2020 ISSUED BY: Dan As has been the case in recent days, a warm, moist low-level airmass and Theta-W plume covers much of England, Wales and Ireland on Sunday morning, although this will shift slowly northwards through the day as the upper low over Biscay approaches and introduces slightly lower Theta-W into southern Britain. That said, the southeasterly flow aloft will maintain advection of high Theta-W from the Low Countries into eastern Britain. PVA and isentropic upglide will maintain some sporadic elevated convection across central Britain to Ireland on Sunday morning, although fairly saturated profiles, weak CAPE and marginal mid-level lapse rates suggests that lightning activity may be rather isolated. A sluter/band of elevated convection may drift north from northern France / Channel Islands on Sunday morning across to southern England, but even this may weaken as it crosses the English Channel. However, diurnal heating ahead of this feature and therefore increasing instability may yield 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE, and this could allow this trough to reinvigorate as it moves north across parts of SE England / M4 corridor, and then later into the Midlands and East Anglia. Ahead of this trough, the slack surface pattern will enable low-level convergence zones to develop, and this could also provide the forcing mechanism for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop by the afternoon, almost anywhere in a zone from SW England through S + SE Wales, the Midlands into East Anglia. In either case, any scattered thunderstorms will likely merge with the approaching trough from the south during the evening hours as a PVA lobe on the forward side of the upper trough encourages more widespread lift, and convection may then grow upscale into a much wider area of rain/thunderstorms. Lightning activity will eventually reduce during the night hours with this feature as rainfall becomes largely frontal as it continues to move northwestwards across northern England, with showers/thunderstorms elsewhere generally decaying by late evening The proximity to the upper low and stronger flow aloft will likely result in some slightly stronger shear compared with the week so far (15-25kts), and this may aid updraft/downdraft separation and sustain convection for longer, allowing some organisation. Consequently some marginally-severe hail (up to 2.0cm in diameter) and gusty winds is possible, although the main threat will be local flooding given the high PWAT once again (around 30-35mm in eastern England). That said, slightly stronger flow aloft will also result in slightly faster storm motion than previous days (around 10-20mph to the NW), and so showers/storms unlikely to be as slow moving as Friday/Saturday. Additional surface-based thunderstorms over France may attempt to migrate northwards across the eastern English Channel towards SE England during the evening hours, but these will probably weaken on arrival (if not earlier) - but could clip parts of the Channel Islands. A few showers will likely develop in W / SW Ireland on Sunday afternoon too, but lightning probably quite isolated. edit - could be a couple of concerns for people in that description 1 - scattered showers and a few thunderstorms 2 - area of rain/thunderstorms 3 - Lightning activity will eventually reduce during the night hours with this feature as rainfall becomes largely frontal we shall see