Gordon Webb

Insert Your Prince Harry Jokes Here

I must be one of few people who don't want storms but seem to be in a locale this year that keeps getting them and this week seems no exception , must have accidentally kicked a black cat or something

I was quite happy until that bit about storms possibly tracking across the midlands

they do decrease day on day though , not to anything particularly cold but something more bearable

Estofex Important bit (2) Great Britain, Belgium, rest of France, Switzerland, N Italy: The capping inversion on top of the moist boundary layer and limited synoptic lift could keep the storm coverage rather low, but the conditional severe weather risk is notably enhanced once storms initiate. The main risk is excessive rain due to plentiful low-level moisture and slow storm motion. However, steep lapse rates in the "Spanish plume" also enhance the risk of large hail and severe downbursts even in the absence of noteworthy vertical wind shear. Confidence in surface-based storms is limited in England (where the ratio between capping and lift deteriorates), and in general turns very low in coastal areas. Elevated activity on top of the sea breezes or in the warm air advection regime in Great Britain can still bring some heavy rain, but the other risks are significantly lower.

well here's one Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv WWW.NETWEATHER.TV mainly elevated today according to this

I think so , convective weather and met office had storms firing from afternoon moving N/NW and clearing on in the evening but speed of these things could mean that's it or vice versa or more could keep going a few miles from you all evening pretty hard to judge but the cap did seem to go where it was expected

would've been better if your used Thorsday instead of Thursday

well the met office 4pm storm warning only has Wolverhampton just in the southern edge of the zone so perhaps you'll be unlucky

storms seem to be where the met office 4pm warning starts

I know the GFS is a source of amusement but somebody did post on the model thread a few days that GFS had shifted the activity for Monday further North , Know it's not much but a little win for the GFS in a run of losses

just for clarification that is a separate warning from the general thunderstorm and covers 16:00 to 03.00 and from Birmingham North Westwards into Wales and NW England , thankfully I'm just to the SE and not included in that warning so should miss most if not all of that and that pretty much ties in with other forecasts

Birmingham Westwards for the midlands I reckon edit - this is completely an opinion and based on no data whatsoever

same here cloud has thinned but not exactly gone away , also have to bear in mind that the 2 biggest words in all these forecasts is IF and POSSIBLE

look to be just on border between slight and low

little shower just north of me at the moment

all these moving in a NW direction it seems

yep but only got 26c here yesterday due to cloudy morning and it's still relatively cloudy again this morning with a breeze too

it does seem to keep the heat more focused for the E/SE

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 10 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 11 Aug 2020 ISSUED 06:25 UTC Mon 10 Aug 2020 ISSUED BY: Dan Atlantic upper longwave trough will gradually sharpen on Monday, placing the British Isles under a broad southerly flow aloft. This will continue to advect a plume of high Theta-W slowly northwestwards through the forecast period, with a marked elevated mixed layer (EML) covering much of England and Wales and creating an environment with notably steep mid-level lapse rates. ... SUMMARY ... Scattered thunderstorms are likely over parts of Wales / SW England / Irish Sea / SW Scotland during Monday daytime Severe thunderstorms with large hail, flash flooding, strong gusts of wind and an isolated tornado will be possible over the Midlands and E Wales during Monday afternoon and evening Scattered thunderstorms may affect parts of N / NW England, Irish Sea and southern Scotland on Monday evening and night Isolated thunderstorms may be possible elsewhere, but with lower confidence ... WALES / NW ENGLAND / IRISH SEA / SW SCOTLAND - MONDAY DAYTIME ... Elevated convection (bases around 8-10,000ft) is likely to be ongoing on Monday morning across parts of Wales, SW England and perhaps NW England, lifting gradually north through the day while expanding in coverage as a shortwave engages with a Theta-E ridge. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and 500-700 J/kg CAPE, lightning is likely to be quite frequent in the most intense cells - especially over west Wales and parts of the Irish Sea where a greater coverage of lightning is expected. Lightning activity may weaken as storms approach the Isle of Man / eastern Northern Ireland / SW Scotland as profiles become increasingly saturated and instability weakens. Some hail may be possible, although the high cloud base and depth of hot air below suggests a lot of this will melt or shrink in size by the time it reaches the surface. Elsewhere, isolated elevated showers/thunderstorms will be possible in a zone from Wales across the Midlands and SE England as a weak PV filament lifts north and engages the plume. ... MIDLANDS / E WALES - MONDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING ... Strong surface heating is expected across southern and eastern England, with a slack low evolving in the vicinity of the M4 corridor. The EML will serve as a cap to surface-based development, and with T850s gradually warming through the day across SE England and East Anglia, these areas are likely to remain capped. However, some slight cooling at 850mb is possible over the West Country / SW Midlands, and IF surface temperatures can nudge close to the required trigger temperature of 30-32C (assuming dewpoints around 18-19C) this could breach the capping inversion and lead to explosive development in a loaded-gun environment, especially when aided by low-level convergence near the surface low centre and a PV lobe arriving from the English Channel. Should deep convection occur, the backed low-level winds north of the surface low and modest flow aloft will create 20-30kts DLS which may be sufficient for organisation and perhaps supercellular mode. Given the substantial CAPE (1,000-1,500 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates, very frequent lightning and large, damaging hail 2-4cm in diameter would be possible (although possibly shrinking somewhat in size as it falls through the hot surface air before reaching the ground). PWAT near 40mm and storm motion of ~20mph brings the risk of prolonged torrential downpours and flash flooding. Should storms exhibit supercellular characteristics, then they may deviate to the right of the mean flow and slow their forward speed. Given the large T-Td spread, cloud bases may initially be quite high, around 6,000ft - but due to a combination of storm processes, northward movement into less-hot air and nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer, cloud bases may steadily lower during the evening hours. Backed low-level winds will create 20-30kts LLS, which may bring the risk of an isolated tornado if cloud bases can lower substantially. Otherwise, inverted-V profiles suggests the risk of strong downburst winds 45-55mph. A SVR has been issued primarily for the threat of large hail and flash flooding, and to a lesser extent for strong winds and an isolated tornado. The greatest risk of severe thunderstorms appears to be initially close to the M4 corridor and SE Wales, shifting northwards into the south / central / west Midlands and east Wales during the evening, and then NW England / Irish Sea later. However, as storms run north into an increasingly capped environment, they may become more elevated in nature. Much of this depends on how strong the cap is during Monday afternoon... ... NORTHERN ENGLAND / SOUTHERN SCOTLAND - MONDAY EVENING / NIGHT ... As the shortwave ejecting north from France arrives during the evening hours, existing thunderstorms over the Midlands and/or new thunderstorms over NW England will likely grow upscale into a complex of primarily elevated thunderstorms over Cen N / NW England, while migrating northwards through the night towards southern Scotland. Lightning could be quite frequent in the strongest cells, and the threat of localised flooding exists from prolonged downpours. Some hail and gusty winds are also possible. ... ENGLISH CHANNEL - MONDAY NIGHT ... A few other elevated showers/thunderstorms may be possible in parts of western mainland Scotland, and perhaps also exiting northern France and across the Channel Islands / English Channel towards S / SE England during the overnight period. Convective Weather CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days. I'll say this once for people who don't know but this type of weather scares me and so the forecast for midlands / east wales is not pleasant but for those that enjoy this then good luck to you all edit - actually reading the detail it does not seem as straight forward as I thought and requires a few conditions to initiate temps of 30c to 32c which was not reached here yesterday , were short by 4c to 6c because of cloudy morning and it is current grey again

Well GFS now mean Gone For Summer

one of the outcomes Tamara suggested might occur in one her her previous posts

Cloudy here and currently 15.0c also did get down to a low of 13c I think , well 14c I know for certain

that's a sizeable drop away from south coast / se , not overly cold by any means but still a sizeable drop nonetheless

got that right , anyone have any idea why