Gordon Webb

assuming we get the heat that is

ok thanks

excuse me what is TOD and COS

quite a few caveats in that forecast though especially in regards to convergence zones,

yep sunshine in short supply today edit - now a little rain

thanks to you both

your actually in the Moderate area

are there any maps that show where these convergence zones are expected to be , free of course

amazing how one run was been told to not be taken at face value seems to go out the window when peoples favorite weather and heat and storms are concerned hope you are all not building yourselves for an almighty disappointment going to take a couple of days away otherwise the drool from this thread might seep through my monitor onto my keyboard good luck everybody

Ain't it typical the Scots are told to stay at home in potentially the best of the weather but it good old England we can go out and get soaked to our hearts content , at least those worried about crowded beaches might have less to worry about

wait and see is right , not cherry picking their favored charts and preferences which seems to have cropped in the last few pages and treated like gospel

need to be a much bigger ark with the new social distancing requirement , they all went in 2 by 2 2 meters apart

we didn't do that well in that year that shall not be named , ok enough of the harry potter it's 2007

expect them to die out to be honest , there pace isn't exactly setting the world on fire

yeah bearing in mind the usual caveats for which there are quite a few reading the actual forecast https://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-04-11

yep certainly stormy at westminster and in more ways than one

Metcheck still have their focus on the Pennines and Northern England later this afternoon

it might mean severely slight

looks like all the activity will be mainly to my east as I'm barely in the slight risk zone which suits me fine as I have 2 overgrowing lawns that need my attention and I suspect Lightning , torrential rain and lawnmowers won't mix well together

well according to Metcheck they have the risk starting in Northern England tomorrow afternoon then extending south to the midlands and NE England later but they will update tomorrow after overnight model runs so nothing set in stone whatsoever

Convective Weather seem to have withdrawn their forecast

Hasn't brightened up at all here today , I mean if I said it had tried to brighten up I would be overstating it ,

One thing I'll say looking at the radar these are not hanging about , I suspect they've realised that there in the south and are hotfooting it to the north as quickly as possible

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 09 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 10 Aug 2019 ISSUED 21:58 UTC Thu 08 Aug 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan An upper low will swing northeastwards across Ireland on Friday, reaching Scotland by Saturday morning. An occluding frontal system will stretch from Northern Ireland to southern Scotland and northern and eastern England first thing on Friday morning, gradually lifting northwards through the day. Pockets of embedded elevated convection will be possible, although pinpointing exactly where some sporadic lightning may occur is near-impossible and overall is not expected to be too widespread. A wrap-around occlusion will provide for the focus for a band of heavy, showery rain over the Celtic Sea and southern Ireland on Friday morning, encircling the main surface low. This whole system, including band(s) of showers / showery rain, will gradually migrate northeastwards across the whole of Ireland and Irish Sea into Wales, western and northern England and southern Scotland. Some sporadic lightning will be possible in places, but dependent somewhat on sufficient cloud breaks to allow adequate surface heating in-between the showers. Either way, strong steering winds will ensure relatively fast movement of individual showers across England and Wales, although this high momentum may be mixed down to the surface at times in downdrafts to produce some gusty winds. Since a single shower is unlikely to last for long, this will ultimately limit how much rain accumulates - but elements of shower training could occur which may exacerbate existing saturated ground. An isolated tornado will be possible given strong low-level shear. Over Ireland, the proximity to the upper low will result in more "pulse type" convection given weaker shear and slower storm motion, which brings the risk of localised flooding from prolonged downpours. In-between the early morning frontal rain clearing and the first (of many) wrap-around portions of the occlusion arriving, a window of clearer sky will exist for better diurnal heating across northern England and southern Scotland. Given surface dewpoints of 15-19C (at least for a time early afternoon), up to 1,000 J/kg CAPE will be possible. A strip of dry mid-level air will overlay this warm, moist low-level airmass, creating a rather unstable environment with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates. If sufficient heating can occur, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms could develop. The main risk period with a favourable overlap of various ingredients will be 10z-15z, but there could be a second wave of showers/thunderstorms late afternoon lingering well into the evening hours. Given the potential for a couple of waves of shower/thunderstorm activity, a low-end MDT has been issued. Given the sheared environment, a supercell may be possible, capable of producing hail up to 2.0cm in diameter and perhaps an isolated tornado. Looks like Northern England and Southern Scotland the Places to be again http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-09

And also for Leicester and rutland obviously in response to developments that occurred within last hour to ninety minutes