Gordon Webb

and moving eastwards too , so no shortage of energy there

good post as always

That's a reasonable outcome I think even though the metoffice have warnings further west as far as stafford I think they are been overly cautious and the area there is more favored then again I could be dead wrong , only time will tell

Hard to say where storms will fire or when or maybe even if Best best is to wait until tomorrow and see what develops and go from there I live just near Coventry and even though I'm in the met office warning zone I expect most of any activity to be more east of me

UKWW initial look at tomorrow http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/121924-convective-outlook-thursday-25th-july-2019/page__pid__1088307#entry1088307

Think they're taking no chances because of their late warnings yesterday when forecast was far more likely

Met office issues warning for tomorrow with emphasis on northern England and southeast Scotland later in the day even so don't expect anything like the night just gone , well I'd be very surprised anyway

so much for a western event only in parts of Northern England It Extends From W To E Coast

that mass of rain heading to reading and swindon you mean , looked quite colourful on radar so I assumed it would be fairly active hmmn seems not

I was afraid you'd say that

new post from PJB from UKWW http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/121888-convective-outlook-tuesday-23rd-july-2019/ Airmass and EIR Imagery indicates the Plume is now destabilising and cloud growth is now rapidly occuring within the plume of >20C Theta- W, the storms over the Channel moving north but developing to the NW suggesting they are ingesting this air as the main source, expect these to further develop NNW over Hants, Dorset and CS England. Further potent storms now also developing over SW England. The ribbon of Positive Vorticity is further advecting NNE and this improved environment is allowing the storms to develop in situ, Further building will occur within the plume

not surprising since the met office put out a warning for it

yes that's appears to be the area of focus acording to PJB from UKWW

meant as bit of humour as in clutching at straws clutch at straws 1. To make a desperate attempt to salvage a bad situation no offense intended

try keeping some straws back for later on

I'd be very surprised if anything happened there

To answer your question , I would think it's highly unlikely but you could never rule it out

I assume you mean Thursday

we might possibly be on eastern most fringe of instability but don't quote me on that if so it would be safe to assume that further west one travels the more activity you would get

Looking at that I appear to just on the eastern most fringe of any potential

well a few forecasts or various posts that I've seen seemed to suggest that might be the case but like you said really is a case of radar watching and see what happens

yeah and a good 15c to 20c down on just 2 days earlier would be quite a turnaround

In between 0c and 50c somewhere in the UK sometime this week Think I have my bases covered

I take those charts with pinch of salt , even now forecasts vary Matt Hugo has them moving up more western areas , convective weather has more of a widespread area estofex limits it level 2 as far north as the west country with a more widespread level 1 most forecasts have hail and wind gusts as most potential hazard not so much the flooding as storm motion is anticipated to be quite fast and also some evaporation of the rain occurring , even the time of initiation varies depending on forecasts so take your pick

drops backs to the mid / upperish 20's away from SE from Wednesday assuming these are correct , which is better anyway don't want to have an ice cream melt away before I start it