Chris K
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Posts posted by Chris K
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Not sure what to make of tonight/tomorrow morning. Some models have some decent looking storm forecasts cross from SE and through parts of C/S England towards the W country.
Others are showing it to be a damp squib apart from those further SE, where the highest 'energy' looks to be restricted to, with that dreaded morning thundery rain for most.
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Yea I think I'm done with this winter already
It stinks of endless chasing and in the end an overall soggy and mild one, at least for the majority of southern UK.
We keep seeing optimism in longer range models and trends, yet when it comes closer to a more reliable timeframe, we seem to end up scuppered.
Keep up the good posts on twitter by the way
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Was initially disappointed we saw no storms today but then looked out our window to be treated to a display from the storm over towards Wales.
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3 minutes ago, Azazel said:
Starting to think the central south should just be left off forecasts in future until science figures out why thunderstorms simply cannot form in this area of the planet.
must be our unique geography or something.
I think it's just repeated bad timing unfortunately. It always seems that we get showers in the morning (if anything) that better develop Midlands northwards during the afternoon/evening in recent years. We can still get some decent plume storm events right into October, so we can only hope for something before I look for the winter 23/24 snow chase
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Just now, Arnie Pie said:
Hoping that the cells near Brizzel take a trip up the M5, where blue skies and slight instability awaits
Annoyingly lightning has died out just as it reaches me here, some heavy rain. My bet is it does kick off again later!
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11 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:
Is this cloud going to scupper our chances?
Well it's been grey and muggy here all morning with barely any sunshine, but we have something developing over us now. I'd be surprised if the higher risk zones later this afternoon miss out.
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I spoke too soon...looks like a lovely little storm has reinvigorated itself heading my way around Bristol.
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12 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:
What the actual hell is this mess!!
Showery remnants I guess with some small amount of elevated storm activity in places. Most of the 'severe' storms are due to develop later further North/NE as surface based reading the forecasts.
Was hoping the storm around Taunton/Bridgewater would make it here but lightning activity has died down already.
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Given how quickly that storm has developed near Taunton, i think it's promising for those in the main risk areas later today.
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Looks ripe for some decent storms later further North/NE. Shame it looks like we are just getting showery mess here to end this tropical feeling hot spell. Will be glad when the fresher air moves in though.
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Hmm seems most forecasts initiate everything further North of my area again early tomorrow. Seems so difficult to get overnight storms move up late evening into the night from the South these days
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Another storm forecast, once again initiation possible early morning/breakfast time from M4 region. What happened to late evening & overnight storms pushing North from Bay of Biscay in the recent couple of years? Seems much more rare now!
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Small thunderstorm rolling up the severn estuary that may just clip me, but looking like more Chepstow side.
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I was driving through the storm that developed south of Gloucester earlier and never seen rain like it. No T&L but you could not see at all infront of the windscreen and road surfaces were rapidly flooding. People were pulling over on the a38 as it was so torrential
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17 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:
Wasn't the North East meant to have the worst? Seems more active over wales
Give it time, most models develop more through the afternoon/evening
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Things really getting going across Wales now and expect the radar may kick into life for some areas within the highest risk zones in the storm forecasts. Shame we just had a muggy soggy day so far here in the W country, but it was expected.
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6 minutes ago, Alderc said:
The line of doom! Game over south and west!
Wasnt expecting anything from this to be honest. Bad timing again like most times last few years. Rain in the morning for Sw, then Storms develop midlands Eastwards and Northwards during the afternoon. Bring back Iberian lows from the South for overnight lightning shows please!
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Of course lightning pick up to the east after it's passed here lol. The rain is welcome though.
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10 minutes ago, convector said:
Looking like a boring day for oxford now
I think the issue is most of the decent stuff will develop from around Oxford and then move away, similar to me in S glos. Not saying storms won't develop South of that and hit you, but models and radar suggest this is the case so far. Radar is showing some rain near me but from what I hear it's evaporating before hitting the ground at the moment.
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1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:
There are already shower growing south of that.
Yes, I just meant the main bulk as it moves north. Some smaller showers/storms still possible behind where they develop.
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5 minutes ago, Candice said:
From current radar there’s absolutely nothing yet other than the mass of rain just coming ashore along the south coast. Certainly not a line from central London along the M4
Going by forecasts I think it will be slightly further north of M4 where we see initiation of the main bulk of storms rather than along it, line from say Gloucester to Oxford to North side of M25, just to give an idea.
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This is how most see it as the day progresses.
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50 minutes ago, FBR said:
Feels horrendously humid/muggy in Gloucestershire right now. Really hope we get something to clear the air a bit!
Yes it does humidity has really gone up this morning. Im in S glos and not expecting much here though, as most forecasts have storms initiating to my North and moving away from there.
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Looks like most activity will be developing too far east and north of here tomorrow afternoon. Good luck to those in the main focus areas though!
Storms and Convective discussion - May 2024
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
It fizzled out as it approached my area then started upn again in Wales
Why does this always happen.