Chris K
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Posts posted by Chris K
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Batch of sferics showing near Bude, Cornwall
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I wouldn't take precipitation charts too seriously and just watch the satellites and live radars instead from later today to watch developments. Countless times I have had rainfall from storm forecasts shown right above me but ends up missing me 100 miles to my West or East.
How well do models pick up elevated storms? Am I right in saying rainfall is often less with these types of storms, as it evaporates before reaching the ground? Is that common here?
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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:
It's pretty clear that elevated storms dying off on Friday morning give way to surface based storms during Friday afternoon. Looks like the focus for surface based storms will be C and E areas. There could be a few western areas that miss out on the decent elevated stuff AND the surface based stuff, looking at the timing of it all.
Looks like I'm one of those places, typical.
I'm sure this has been a regular occurrence in recent years with regards to bad timing with overnight storms...may be my subjective memory though!
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A couple of rumbles of thunder to my North from that shower band. Another band to my South. Sunny here inbetween haha....
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Just saw a couple of flickers of lightning to my North looking towards Gloucester direction.
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2 minutes ago, Karl83 said:
And again. Is this the start of everything going bang? We will see...
I live about 6 miles north and haven't heard anything. Hopefully spot a flicker as it drifts by to my east.
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2 minutes ago, Karl83 said:
Nice.. looks like you have a queue of them on their way to you
Few more developing off the S coast a tad west of the previous ones, so may head towards Bristol directly?
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1 minute ago, SkyDreamer said:
Uh it's 21:30... Most storms on Tuesday night did not explode into life until after 11pm.
Calling something a bust without any real evidence for it, is... well kinda off. To put it nicely.
People were calling Tuesday Night a bust, early, then it roared into being lighting up the whole of the South of England.
So hold your horses. For a bit.
True and it looks like showers developing across some C/S areas could develop as they trundle North?
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3 minutes ago, TomW said:
Just seen lightning! to my south!!
Noticed those showers cropping up - might get lucky as they drift by!
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Seems to be some showers developing in the channel that may have parts of the W country's name on it. We were just outside most warnings but unless steering winds start shifting it more east (or they fizzle out), they look to be heading this way later.
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1 minute ago, Karl83 said:
Kicking off on the English / Welsh border now
Shame it's just that bit too far North and East of us today by the looks of things! Guess I can't be too greedy though after Tues night....
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Does anyone know where I can generate a lightning strike animation of, for example, the last 24 hours? Can't seem to find anywhere that lets me download it.
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Night time storms really are worth the bleary eyes next day in work. Was a good view looking north with forks darting across the sky. Wish i could take decent shots!
Perhaps a little more storm activity rolling in on the tail end from Somerset. Haven't had a storm like this for quite some time!
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Lightning now starting directly above and closing the gap as it heads off - looking good for Gloucester area soon.
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Gah the usual split opening up for Bristol But on the plus side I can see some distant flashes from the storm in Wales and soon from the one near Bath which may drift just to the east.
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Someone plug that gap heading towards Bristol with more lightning....
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I would expect more storms to start initiating across the W country fairly soon with those showers moving in....hopefully....
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Most models don't suggest the main bulk of storms to initiate for another hour or two yet, where it shows them exploding to life across parts of S Wales, Devon, W country and C/S England, before expanding N/NE eventually swinging NW towards Scotland. Plenty of time yet.
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Rain radar seems to show tiny 'cells' beginning to pop up in an area of the Channel NW of the channel Islands? Could be a go soon?
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2 minutes ago, Rapodo said:
Anyone a bit concerned by the lack of action so far? Thought would have had more signs of activity by now and no signs of any instability in Dorset now. Very odd.
There are showers approaching Cornwall and Devon and West of Brest - I think it is these that will develop as they move North/NE.
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Not really sure what to think, as most forecasts still show storms breaking out Midlands, Wales and expanding North through much of N England and Scotland whereas others have the focus of severity to the SW and a spine up C England. Looks like the typical set up where everything might initiate just N of Gloucester again haha. Interesting radar watching to come.
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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
GFS advertising some very warm temps for midnight tomorrow with a trough moving up from the SW, could tomorrow night turn thundery?
Difficult to tell as models seem to show the main action developing more North across parts of Wales/Midlands and upwards into Scotland. However I am only going by precipitation which I guess could not taking into account 'dry' thunderstorms?
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:
I'm bemused as to how/why we keep getting dry breakdowns.
The GFS 18z is a case in point.
I've noticed this too and I'm not sure if it is selective memory, but these 'dry' breakdowns seem more common over the past couple of years. Heat getting swept away with a band of cloud and naff all exciting storm activity, followed by SW/W'erly winds. I am wondering if it is partly because the LP systems are following the kink in the Jet too close to the UK, causing it to head up W of Ireland, rather than having a classic Iberian thundery LOW heading North towards S UK.
18z GFS is going with the Jet and an associated Atlantic LP systems forcing the heat east a little more quickly, but still warm/hot and humid for the majority of next week. Remaining decent enough after that too to be honest (on this run).
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Yea an unexpected clap of thunder and brief torrential downpour a few miles North of Bristol
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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Keeping my eye on these that have started to develop for later in the night. Met office had it crossing right over the W country in the early hours, but not sure if it'll just be standard showery rain behind the band moving in front.