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Chris K
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Posts posted by Chris K
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5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
All that energy around southern greenland and the Lobe of death, same old problem... the models never pick up spoiler features until you get into that day 4 or so range where small nuances that make a big difference turn up, what happened to the day 10 charts we were seeing where the vortex was being broken apart? Clearly the SSW isn’t effecting the one area we need it too badly.
This situation is akin to having a straight flush in poker and your opponent pulling a royal flush, you just have to laugh... how can we be so unlucky?
I get the feeling that the GFS may be being a tad over progressive here. There are still some disagreements between the main models of the depth and track of the LP systems and until these are resolved, there could still be changes ahead in the short term.
Whilst the fantastic coldageddon charts may have disappeared, the overall picture may still remain positive. ECM will be interesting later, to see if it sides more with UKMO or GFS. I may be interpreting the charts incorrectly, but in my eyes, the 12z GFS high that collapses towards Iberia would not need much change to head up NE across the UK and maybe somewhere favourable from there? God damn another UK high..hope not!
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7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:
Look at all theirs heights being pushed into Europe small changes now big changes later expecting long term changes next 2-3 weeks worth at least
If a block unfavourably sets up, maybe. However it gets slightly bemusing when just because this time round it could "fail", suddenly 3 weeks worth of weather is decided...I don't think so. Overall theme is still positive of a euro trough. Everything just needs to go right for the UK to get the amazing cold spells...which is difficult!
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Glad to see GFS improvements going against the ICON... what a ride this winter has been in terms of model watching
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That Azores high nudging into Iberia has been the bane of this winter so far, it hasn't had the decent opportunity to edge far enough North and instead keeps toppling over or to the SW of the UK as we get closer to T+0. I am still hopeful for something down the line, given the background signals and MetO updates, and await this evenings runs from behind the sofa...
The general theme of heights lowering in parts of Europe is still a positive, I feel.
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3 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:
Yeah and now at 120hrs, surely can't be wrong at 120 hrs the UKMO can it???
I have found that in the past, when we get scenarios likes this, there is generally a movement towards a middle-ground solution over the next 4-5 days. However until all main models agree it is difficult to judge.
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42 minutes ago, IDO said:
Something like 19 is my preference:
Really enjoy these gifs, as it shows how quickly the fluid dynamics of various levels of the atmosphere can change over a period of time.
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Just had a big dumping of hail and a couple of nearby lightning strikes just North of Bristol
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Probably just a little too far SW to see much today, but we did just have a brief shower as it develops and trundles NE.
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11 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:
Its Saturday night all over again here rather disappointed yet again but good luck to those further north and east as storms finally becoming more organised!
Showers still keep developing to the SE for now. You never know!
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Had some heavy rain and a couple of rumbles just N of Bristol a little earlier. Overcast and humid now.
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2 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:
I don't know about that because I see a line formation going from Chester to those showers just off the south east coast.
That band would be where I would favour main activity later. I was more on about isolated surface based storm risk in the SW quadrant of the UK.
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Some showers seem to be forming across some parts of SW & C/S England on radar. Most likely these will remain isolated in this area, but could chuck out a couple of surprise thundery showers as the afternoon progresses.
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1 minute ago, tomjwlx said:
Lots of thunder here and torrential rain!
Can hear that lot rumbling to my South. Pleased we got something as these showers head up the country for what looks like an active afternoon coming up for areas North of here.
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Reverse psychology worked - Mother nature deciding to give a morning treat - rumbles of thunder here N of Bristol suddenly. Looking good for those N/NE of here this afternoon with how quickly these are developing.
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9 minutes ago, SteveB said:
Apart from distant rumbles of thunder, and one flash of lightning, we had nothing else again.
Don't understand why that gap appears, very strange.
Then it reignited as it went into Wales.. Parcels of weaker instability I guess? Might get lucky from the showers developing to the SE this morning.
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Not difficult to guess where I live.
Hint: The gap.
Hope those who had storms enjoyed it!
Image from convectiveweather.co.uk
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Love how it all faded away to my south only to all kick off about 40 miles North again.....frustrating this storm malarkey.
Maybe something tomorrow morning here as the AROME model seemed to do well tonight....
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1 minute ago, tomjwlx said:
not good is it! had a few rumbles from that storm earlier this evening but apart from that its not gone are way I guess the storm shield is strong over Bristol this time!
And tomorrow we look to be too far SW!
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Storm dying of death as it headed closer to Bath and Bristol second time tonight.
Fudge cake.
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6 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
This is the area I have my eye on...
Certainly a messy picture but some new sferics near Bath. Could pop up anywhere I guess!
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Is anything else likely to head towards the W country?
The direction of sferics looks promising along the S coast but always seems to die of death by the time it gets here I also think steering flow is forecast to change as the night progresses to a more N/NE? -
Bristol shield holding firm. Lightning re-ignited once it crossed into Wales
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What I initially thought was heading this way now looks like staying just to the South of me as they head West. Hoping something develops a bit later behind.
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1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Various towering cells stretching right across my horizon! Incredible to see might have to take a drive towards Chelwood.
Parts of the W country may get something from the rash of showers developing to our SE. Keeping an eye on the ones around Salisbury at the moment.
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Chris K
This is the model output discussion thread for the whole of the UK and beyond. Go to the regional threads if you do not care what happens up in Scotland.