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Everything posted by Chris K
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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Not as optimistic as earlier for here, unless the showers West of the channel islands move up towards us and develop further into storms. Anything that is approaching the W Country seems to keep fading away. A recurring theme in recent years is of activity kicking off in the morning to the N/NE, so my bet is on that happening -
Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Keeping my eye on these that have started to develop for later in the night. Met office had it crossing right over the W country in the early hours, but not sure if it'll just be standard showery rain behind the band moving in front. -
Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I wouldn't take precipitation charts too seriously and just watch the satellites and live radars instead from later today to watch developments. Countless times I have had rainfall from storm forecasts shown right above me but ends up missing me 100 miles to my West or East. How well do models pick up elevated storms? Am I right in saying rainfall is often less with these types of storms, as it evaporates before reaching the ground? Is that common here? -
Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I'm sure this has been a regular occurrence in recent years with regards to bad timing with overnight storms...may be my subjective memory though! -
Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
A couple of rumbles of thunder to my North from that shower band. Another band to my South. Sunny here inbetween haha.... -
Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Just saw a couple of flickers of lightning to my North looking towards Gloucester direction. -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I live about 6 miles north and haven't heard anything. Hopefully spot a flicker as it drifts by to my east. -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Few more developing off the S coast a tad west of the previous ones, so may head towards Bristol directly? -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
True and it looks like showers developing across some C/S areas could develop as they trundle North? -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Noticed those showers cropping up - might get lucky as they drift by! -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Seems to be some showers developing in the channel that may have parts of the W country's name on it. We were just outside most warnings but unless steering winds start shifting it more east (or they fizzle out), they look to be heading this way later. -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Shame it's just that bit too far North and East of us today by the looks of things! Guess I can't be too greedy though after Tues night.... -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Does anyone know where I can generate a lightning strike animation of, for example, the last 24 hours? Can't seem to find anywhere that lets me download it. -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Night time storms really are worth the bleary eyes next day in work. Was a good view looking north with forks darting across the sky. Wish i could take decent shots! Perhaps a little more storm activity rolling in on the tail end from Somerset. Haven't had a storm like this for quite some time! -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Lightning now starting directly above and closing the gap as it heads off - looking good for Gloucester area soon. -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Gah the usual split opening up for Bristol But on the plus side I can see some distant flashes from the storm in Wales and soon from the one near Bath which may drift just to the east. -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Someone plug that gap heading towards Bristol with more lightning.... -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I would expect more storms to start initiating across the W country fairly soon with those showers moving in....hopefully.... -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Most models don't suggest the main bulk of storms to initiate for another hour or two yet, where it shows them exploding to life across parts of S Wales, Devon, W country and C/S England, before expanding N/NE eventually swinging NW towards Scotland. Plenty of time yet. -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Rain radar seems to show tiny 'cells' beginning to pop up in an area of the Channel NW of the channel Islands? Could be a go soon? -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
There are showers approaching Cornwall and Devon and West of Brest - I think it is these that will develop as they move North/NE. -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards
Chris K replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Not really sure what to think, as most forecasts still show storms breaking out Midlands, Wales and expanding North through much of N England and Scotland whereas others have the focus of severity to the SW and a spine up C England. Looks like the typical set up where everything might initiate just N of Gloucester again haha. Interesting radar watching to come. -
Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
Chris K replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Difficult to tell as models seem to show the main action developing more North across parts of Wales/Midlands and upwards into Scotland. However I am only going by precipitation which I guess could not taking into account 'dry' thunderstorms? -
Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
Chris K replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I've noticed this too and I'm not sure if it is selective memory, but these 'dry' breakdowns seem more common over the past couple of years. Heat getting swept away with a band of cloud and naff all exciting storm activity, followed by SW/W'erly winds. I am wondering if it is partly because the LP systems are following the kink in the Jet too close to the UK, causing it to head up W of Ireland, rather than having a classic Iberian thundery LOW heading North towards S UK. 18z GFS is going with the Jet and an associated Atlantic LP systems forcing the heat east a little more quickly, but still warm/hot and humid for the majority of next week. Remaining decent enough after that too to be honest (on this run).