Chris K

Yea I have been watching this. The AROME model looks good for our area, but I'm not sure how accurate it usually is for thunderstorms.

Very grey here this morning so not sure if this will hamper things for later, but still feeling a little humid. Hopefully things develop later this afternoon as most of the models looks decent for the W country, but as always it will come down to watching radar developments and the skies.

I imagine the warnings are more for the torrential downpours from any showers rather than lightning, given the ground is hard and could mean potential surface flooding in some areas.

Some showers are developing across parts of Wales and SW England now too. Some isolated storms may trigger later from these.

I'm guessing this incoming narrow band of thundery rain will suddenly fade out just before reaching Bristol

Most models seems to show that fizzling out as the day progresses with more organised showers developing up through Wales and NW England approx late afternoon where winds converge. Seems more isolated risk for us further South, but radar watching as always.

Standard..haha. Will see what the week brings but most suggest storms being west or east of here again.

Come onnn you can make it to Bristol do iiit...don't do the usual weakening then firing up in Midlands again

Currently have eyes on storm East of Taunton but lightning activity seems to be slowing. Fingers crossed haha

You must be seeing the storm flashing over near Bath then. Unfortunately looks like everything is on too much of a NE track rather than N to hit here, but may seem some distant flashes soon...

For all the time I have been a member here this has to be the most boring winter so far for me I'm going to get excited just to see a rain band again. So much grey weather dominated December here, now it is alternating between nice clear days, foggy/frosty nights and dry, back to grey spells imbetween. The high is really struggling to move off anywhere and just meandering about...the lack of interest I have in the charts is notable this month

Not sure whether to expect much for my area of the W Country tonight. Most forecasts show things dwindling just before reaching here. Seen that a few times in recent years. Perhaps my best chance will be any showers that develop Saturday afternoon. Good luck down on the S coast. Looks like a decent chance. Always hope a heatwave ends with a bang but I usually wake up to a grey, cool mess

The 18z GFS at first glance seems better for prolonging thundery outbreaks from the South though?

Just had a few rumbles here North of Bristol, looks like it is from the shower over the Severn Estuary heading North/NW. First of the 2021 "season". Won't be long before I'm crying at 3am in the morning when a plume of storms die down 20-30 miles before reaching me

No snow here from this easterly at all (We had a couple cm though in January for a day I guess, so more than some have had... Very cold couple of nights at the 'peak', ice was actually quite limited though as it was quite windy! Remembered more for putting up my heating bills rather than anything interesting weather wise Hoping for something in March, but if not, looking forward to some warmer weather and to resume my storm hunting

Very unsettled start, gradually calming and quite cold since then. A brief couple of cm of snow that melted quickly the day after in Jan. Not expecting much from this current cold spell to be honest as any snow moving in from the SW is showing to either fizzle out and barely touch the UK or push through and sweep milder air in more quickly. Maybe a chance of battleground snow, but models seem to be reducing that risk at the moment with a more boring goodbye to the cold for this part of the country. We'll see!

I really want to agree but not comfortable until there is cross model agreement at close timeframes. GFS has been on its own before and then the others have moved towards it to meet "half way", if you know what I mean. Small disturbances that crop up at high res could impact things down the line (Hopefully for the better. )

Some flurries in Thornbury north of Bristol. If the stuff falling around Gloucester keeps up may seem some more shortly!

Nice deep rumbles from the shower to my E. Skirting along several miles away, but nice to see!

A fair bit of lightning going on up here just N of Bristol with distant rumbles Didn't expect this to be honest!

Indeed..but still closest to current radar obs in my view (compared to the others). Different resolutions though.

ARPEGE looks closest to my eyes..

Definitely been a repetitive theme past few years now...best storm activity seems to initiate further North over, rather than South of the UK during plume type setups.

Not as optimistic as earlier for here, unless the showers West of the channel islands move up towards us and develop further into storms. Anything that is approaching the W Country seems to keep fading away. A recurring theme in recent years is of activity kicking off in the morning to the N/NE, so my bet is on that happening

Keeping my eye on these that have started to develop for later in the night. Met office had it crossing right over the W country in the early hours, but not sure if it'll just be standard showery rain behind the band moving in front.