Chris K

I am wondering whether perhaps it does not take into account any thawing and is a "theoretical" accumulation if it was all to settle straight away? Would it be that simple?

I do get Geordiesnow's point - T+144 does show what occurs after the High starts to sink into Europe and although the 6z GFS Op run still follows this with another cold blast and snow for some areas, it is still too far away and without cross model agreement to be sure which way it will go. For all we know that SCEuro high may end up being more persistent than the 6z was showing, or it could indeed weaken with heights starting to build towards Greenland again. Multiple options still on the table and for now the roller coaster continues. It is interesting to note how the vortex is still not taking up its usual residency and is struggling to organise fully.

Ye there have been several strikes now - went over Yate area and heading E/SE now. More developing to our West.

Wow a close bolt of lightning with almost instantaneous thunder! Shame it just looks grey above and uninteresting haha...

Couple rumbles of thunder here North of Bristol

Hah...you can see it already can't you. A cooler, wetter than average august followed by a cracking warm settled spell in September after the kids return to school and the nights are already more noticeably drawing in.

Looks like the walk home from the pub later may be a tad damp

I won't go into the science of the Jet stream because there are different factors that will affect its strength, flow, direction and angle, but yes my choice of words probably weren't the best linking it to the positioning of the Azores High. I agree with you and I am well aware of patterns that can set in for a prolonged period of time. However I don't think anyone can definitively say it will go one way or the other. I don't know what others thoughts are, but to me it has felt like we have had a repetitive pattern of High pressure moving from the Azores into Europe for brief periods since the end of May, with the "mini plumes" that came with it for some parts of the country. This seems to be changing now with the trough becoming more dominant and similar to what you said, hopefully it won't become hard to shift. I am only an amateur in terms of interpreting models and I cannot see whether this is perhaps a transitional phase of unsettled weather or a pattern that is likely to last a while. Maybe you know more than me? I can only go on experiences of the past where models have shown a prolonged period of unsettled weather then throws a curveball a week later with a (sometimes completely) different outlook...

Whilst the above charts may suggest a washout, it is worth remembering that these rain bands will not necessarily be with us day in day out. I am not particularly excited to see cooler temps and unsettled weather but lower resolution charts make it look worse than it probably will be. For example many areas will see the worst of the rain pass over during the night or early/late hours on various days (subject to timing changes). If it is particularly windy due to a rather deep area of low pressure, you will find rain bands should cross within a few hours. Showers may be likely but again these are usually hit and miss. Just for example Saturday just gone there were a lot of showers moving into the SW yet my location only had 2 brief showers for the whole day with pleasant sunshine in between. Others weren't so lucky - such is the nature of showers. The Jet has picked up a notch and it's positioning is not helping the Azores high nudge into Europe enough to settle us down again. However there are sometimes posts writing off the whole of August based on 1-2 weeks worth of output that to be honest can change at short notice due to subtle changes in the synoptic patterns. It will be interesting to see how things progress as we move into August. Fingers crossed we see something more settled again for the kid's holidays

Hmm yea. I am kind of expecting those South of Cornwall way to make it towards our area. You can also see new showers forming over Devon as we move into the afternoon.

Lots of showers moving up from the SW this morning. Very hit and miss but some could see a spark or two.

And just to add to what Supacell said above, we can often see small pulse type storms at anytime of the year if the conditions are right. No they may not be the light show many crave, but some of the cloudscapes are amazing and the showers are very potent, with sunshine in-between and the bonus of less sweat inducing humidity! Hoping to see further chances over the next couple of months. Up to now there has been a repetitive pattern of a trough dropping down to our west at 4-5 day notice creating these "mini plumes". Hopefully that wasn't the end of that quite yet...

Some storms skimmed South of here in parts of Bristol, so I saw a few distant flashes. I was feeling more optimistic when I saw that rash of storms flare up in the channel, but unfortunately they were steered too much NE as they moved up. I don't know if this was expected or not, because most of the models in the morning were showing something much different and caught up as they day and evening went on. Shows how difficult it is to forecast this kind of thing and always always comes to watching the skies and radar...

Hah...so nothing like what I was expecting from all the models and forecasts, but Bristol still managed to get some strikes in the end...

I think I am giving up ... to be honest I am really struggling to figure out which way all these storms are going. Just look at those in the Channel now for example near Cherbourg - one storm is heading NE - the other back North West! And those off the West of Cornwall... My assumption is it is do to with the steering winds - but it is all over the place with the main activity heading on a much more NE path overall than I expected.

Shame the storms off the coast near Torquay have too much of an easterly influence, as it doesn't look like it'll head this way now.

Watch it all fire off after it has drifted past us

I am finding these storms difficult to follow - but for us I think we should be keeping an eye on what's currently over Exeter.

Can someone then please explain where they are meant to come from? From my understanding the storms would form along the trough as it pushes up? It's not over by any means and whilst I am an amateur, what else will be triggering the storms away from this feature? Am I misinterpreting its current position? Cheers.

South Wales looks in the firing line to me from the storm over Exeter and other parts of Devon? Nice gap opening for Bristol though...

Surface pressure chart for 0100hrs Wedsnesday - but to be honest, I am a bit confused - this is a lot further South and East than I would expect and with regards to what this mornings charts showed.... You can see the shape of the trough on the lightning maps quite clearly, I feel?

Indeed...shame as to my untrained eye the W country may miss out now, as the western storms near Plymouth look to be potentially heading more into Wales, with the Eastern zone of storms heading more NE possibly leaving us with a nice gap (as also depicted in the updated MetOffice precip charts). Unless I am totally off here? Early days though. A bit of a mess!

Again, studying the fax charts and Sat images, this is where (very roughly) I think the surface troughs currently sit (red lines on sat image). Storms will initiate along them. Not necessarily all the way across mind.

for here IMBY

Yes i don't know. It is something to monitor. Nowcasting time!