Chris K

Although by no means to be taken literally, there is a clear westward shift between 12z and 18z Netwx-sr high res model for precipitation. (12z left, 18z right)

I don't really remember but it rings a bell! They have performed quite well in my opinion, and although nowcasting as always, most forecasts are broadly close now.

The SW best chances are in the early hours before the main activity kicks off later on Saturday further N and E.

To me it has felt that this has been quite typical in recent years. Storms start to initiate in the S/W of the UK fairly early, only to trundle NE during the afternoon with the best activity kicking off later once it has passed us. What happened to the thundery lows we used to get that would arrive on the S coast by evening to give a nice light show through the night? I'd rather have potential than none though

A bit lacklustre in the lightning department to be honest, but I don't think that was unexpected and the forecasts made were almost spot on in my opinion, especially the Netweather SR model in terms of precipitation. It can be easy to read it as more widespread due to the resolution of some models, but in reality it is always a nowcast situation keeping an eye on the radars.

Seems like initiation is so far all occuring to my West heading into Wales. Some nice towers going up. Not sure what to make of the showers heading out France. Unsure whether they will keep active by later on this evening.

Possibly - But there are more showers cropping up behind. A proper nowcast as always. Fingers and toes crossed.

Another thunderstorm to my NE, don't think it will be overhead this time but I can hear the rumbles of thunder. Looks to be heading towards E side of Bristol this time.

That's probably our lot now for the year Fingers crossed for some decent plumeage soon.

It's heading S/SW from me towards N/NW Bristol. Actually quite a vicious shower with squally winds and hail thrown in as well as several claps of thunder.

Thundery shower passing through. First flashes and bangs of 2017 i think!

Showers forming to my North east and gradually coming this way through Gloucestershire.. A couple of sparks possible, although still relatively low risk.

Meh. Get rid of the cold I say. Winter was tedious hoping for snow and I just want to see the back of it. My hopes...more fresh, sunny days. The start of thunderstorm "season" earlier than May (for a change from recent years). Less of the chilky dank grey weather. Thanks!

I love a cold winter, but this has been quite a tedious chase to see some of the white stuff. Whilst there is more than enough time to see snow, I am looking forward to getting back into my thunderstorm plume hunting mode once we hit late March on-wards. Just as bloody elusive though!

"Less grey, more sleigh" is what I'd like to see.

I can understand the frustration but just because it hasn't gone well on previous occasions, does not mean this time it will do the same. Most are just commenting on what the models are showing. Yes, perhaps we need to wait until something gets to the more reliable time frame, but calling people "the same old rampers" and "will they learn" is a tad harsh in my opinion. It's part of the winter roller coaster and this thread would be boring without it!

I must admit I am still struggling to see much to be positive about (medium term at least) in terms of snow chances away from higher elevations further north. The only positive thing I can say from a personal point of view is that the stagnant pattern we have been in for a fair amount of time now is drawing to a close. The Jet Stream is modelled to fire up for a while and although it may be tracking a bit towards our South, deep LP systems are pushing in one after another in recent outputs and the 'block' is just causing them to end up loitering North of the UK. This is shown the GFS 18z, which continues with a very unsettled outlook. Who knows the slightly milder and more unsettled phase may not last as long as shown, but any attempted ridging over scandi keeps getting shoved away before it has chances to build. Perhaps the trend others are discussing above may mean something comes to fruition later on, but as an amateur I'm not seeing how at the moment with that Jet modelled to be so strong.

Hard to tell. The problem is, in previous winters where it has ended up relying on some hope from Strat warmings into February, we either have ended up with a cool wet spring or diddly squit... Also, I do not really know much on the subject, but surely there is a normal seasonal warming anyway as we head towards Spring? It may well cause something more favourable during February, but I don't feel too confident when we are in this position to be honest. There are also other factors to take into account. I wait with interest to see how long this potential "active" weather lasts.

What is interesting is we have now been in a blocked pattern pretty much since the end of November, with subtle changes in the air flow determining our surface weather. Generally and unfortunately, heights have sat too far South or limping around between Azores and Europe. It just hasn't fallen into place to allow many people to see snow so far. However here in the W country we have certainly seen many more frosty & icy nights this season...I think it was last year I could count the number of frosts on one hand? I also think in general many regions have experienced a much drier than normal winter season so far, as well. I personally find it boring, but each to their own and understandably at least there aren't floods! My question is just how long this blocking can last? Surely eventually we will see a period of a stronger, zonal jet. It seems to get pushed back a tad day by day, and I am just hoping we don't end up with a wetter and cooler Spring/Summer...

Some posts in here containing a certain type of criticism of long term forecasts are very unhelpful. They only seem to appear when the unfavourable patterns begin to make a comeback with claims that forecasts are way off with lack of evidence to back it up. Why not have a go at providing your own analysis to counter theirs? I've said it before that the smallest of changes in a larger scale synoptic evolution can mean massive differences to the UK. Unfortunately everything has to go right for us to see any prolonged cold and snowy weather. More often than not we will end up with glancing blows or fails. I am guilty of it as well, but too much faith can be put into charts for 7-10 days time. Long term forecasts are a probabilty and analysis tool to seek the most likely evolutions. And even when there is good agreement for something, if there is still even the smallest chance of it not occuring, it sometimes won't. The chaos of meteorology for a speck of space the UK takes up sitting on the edge of a large ocean eh?

The problem I find with tweets is that they can too easily be taken out of context as they are only meant as snippets of information. He may have said all showed an easterly, but within that I'm sure there would have been many different types of easterly. Full on, slack, cold, 'sort of cold' you know..

A light dusting of snow here! Bit of a nice surprise, even if it still isn't enough to build a snowman!

Indeed and whilst more hit and miss, I am more optimistic about these showers IMBY point of view. It could amount to nothing but it is almost like hunting thundery showers in summer

Firstly, welcome, but sorry but I must respectively disagree a tad with your post. We had high pressure covering a large swathe of Europe for most of December, yes, but then this shifted towards our SW allowing a trough to develop towards Southern Europe. Then there has recently been consistently modelled eveolutions of heights moving across to our NE and it is only the more recent runs which perhaps show a differring solution to a direct bitter easterly flow. The overall pattern remains similar and it is going to take a while longer to see how this will pan out. I said yesterday that there are many options on the table from here, but let's just hope it is not a return to a slug azores/euro high. I don't think anyone can say "the easterly was always going to be short lived and pathetic' because it was not even in a reliable timeframe yet! It could indeed go pete tong... this is the UK after all where micro changes can have a massive effect on our surface conditions. However personally I think we are in the best position we have been in this winter so far.