Chris K

Yea that is what I was thinking but I guess it always comes down to now-casting in these set ups. Fingers crossed. Does have another batch of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon further to the NE.

Few showers developing to my NE that may drift by. Hit and miss in nature but fingers crossed!

Does look promising for later now that we are seeing storm activity developing in the channel. Fingers crossed. I'm off to Southampton this evening so may be I will be lucky to see 2 rounds? ?

Few strikes to my southwest skirting up the Severn Estuary. I have been looking forward to the start of the 'convective season' again.

The fact we had this snow at all is a bonus for me! I was expecting winter to end with nothing except the brief dustings back in December to be honest. Love it. Approx 10cm here but just on hill behind the town around 15cm. Drifts blowing across the A38 too. Don't think I have seen that before.

Yes I think it is pivoting across to the red warning areas.

Yep was a brief heavy snow shower and it started to settle very fast. Sun back out and thawing slowly.

It does look like some snow flurries could make it across to areas more SW of the warning zones and indeed some places North of Bristol up towards Gloucester already seeing some.

Bitter here this morning but like others, barely any frost due to the lack of moisture i presume.

Variations from a couple of GFS ops and it may be onto something, however we need to start seeing cross model agreement before the path and strength of this system can be resolved. ☺

I am wondering if they are just being moderated a tad (and not by much!) as it approaches a closer timeframe rather than being delayed? I haven't had time to analyse charts this morning so I may be wrong. Fantastic still. I'd of bitten my arm off for charts like these any year and we actually have something decent seemingly heading our way.

There are still obviously variations showing but it certainly looks positive going forward. I cannot deny that I am excited because I don't think I have ever had this expression written across my face on so many consecutive model runs (ops, means etc) whilst a member of this forum. Hopefully we see these excellent charts continue as we progress through the week and fingers and toes crossed it delivers a final bite of winter this season for us cold & snow lovers to enjoy. A lot of the analysis since the SSW kicked in has been excellent. Whilst we have had people explain nothing is guaranteed and I try to remain grounded, monitoring potential stratospheric influences on our weather has been and continues to be fascinating (if a tad nerve-wracking). Whatever the outcome, this sort of model watching is a big reason why I have such an interest in meteorology. Once Spring eventually sets in, I thenstart my thunderstorm searching

Was noticeable here North of Bristol. I was in my room and it felt like everything had been shuffled about all at once. Could here faint rumbling outside and it was like a large lorry going by, but instant rather than gradual.

Haven't posted on here for a while but this is interesting. Perhaps another below average March on the way? I just hope it doesn't up as weeks of cold, dry and grey....

Likely to be the research into climate change effects on the Hadley cell and it's projected expansion northward. Anyway, probably discussion for another part of the forum but there are plenty of research papers online to read up on it.

This ^^^ great fun trying to walk home at 2am from the pub at the best of times...

Snowing 10 miles north of Bristol at only 50m asl here...still falling a bit.

Some flurries starting again up here just North of Bristol. Nothing much but black ice is the main problem this morning.

perhaps some snowfall for C/S and the SE corner. I don't think it'll be far enough out to mean a shift right up to SW/W country etc.

Temp is 0.5c with dewpoint of -0.2c but it's actually turning back to sleet/rain... A few cm settled on the car at least!

If it wasn't for the rain around 10am we would have more settling! Been snowing lightly all morning apart from that, but it is struggling to stick. Pleasant surprise though! I've managed to make a snowball and throw it at the dog for his first time.

They're talking about it in their regional threads - better there really, being so close to the time and only slight adjustments likely.

Met Office graphic from 2 hours ago shows it all in line with their warnings still and until any adjustments are made I am a bit dubious of the model outputs. It will be a now-cast job anyway... Fingers crossed for those on the borderline haha...

Not where I live - only about 50m asl, a few miles NE of the old Severn Crossing. However it would not take long heading further NE to reach higher elevation. We may get some back-edge flurries going from this morning's charts but I imagine it will struggle to settle due to the amount of rain beforehand.

I am literally sat on the edge between rain and snow going from those charts. Living 10 miles North of Bristol can be interesting in these sort of set ups. There could be settling snow 10 miles north of me (would make sense as it is towards Cotswolds) but rain as I travel South to work into the city.