Chris K

To me I think it is demonstrating that whilst there is the severe risk area outlined by the black line, it is still within a low risk zone. The severe is catering for the very low chance of developments IF they were to occur in that area. However I am still of the view the cap will be difficult to break. The accompanying forecast from Convective Weather for that map is below (I believe the bit in bold refers to the SVR outline). http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-20 Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 20 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 21 Jun 2017 ISSUED 20:02 UTC Mon 19 Jun 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan ... WALES / MIDLANDS / W COUNTRY / HOME COUNTIES ... Day-on-day weakening of the ~650mb nose continues as heights aloft gradually fall, which combined with low-level convergence and strong surface heating (generating 1,000 - 2,000 Jkg-1 CAPE) will bring the risk of a few isolated heavy showers / thunderstorms very late Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. Forecast profiles are once again quite dry, which will serve to inhibit deep convection, but should a strong cell develop then, given such instability and dry air aloft, there is scope for large hail 2.0-2.5cm in diameter and localised flash flooding as a result of slow storm motion and local accumulations of 30-40mm in a short space of time. As a result, a SVR has been issued for this, but it is easily possible that no thunderstorms develop and consequently no severe weather will occur etc. ... REPUBLIC OF IRELAND / NORTHERN IRELAND / IRISH SEA / SCOTLAND / N ENGLAND ... On Tuesday night, an approaching Atlantic trough will advect the high WBPT airmass over southern England northwards across the Irish Sea to Northern Ireland. Increased forcing as upper trough approaches will likely destabilise the mid-levels, especially during the latter stages of the night. An increase in elevated thunderstorm potential seems likely during the early hours of Wednesday, particularly over the Irish Sea, moving into Cumbria and parts of SW Scotland. The risk also extends farther south towards west Wales and perhaps SW England by Wednesday morning, but with less forcing likely here and so greater uncertainty as to whether such (large) instability will be released. The exact areas at risk is still somewhat uncertain, and hence the forecast may need adjusting nearer the time as confidence improves - the SLGT, for example, may need extending across Northern Ireland.

Difficult...the high res precipitation charts are very uninspiring, but could "dry thunderstorms" be a factor in this? The lower res charts seem to indicate more activity but then again these showed some parts may see an isolated storm yesterday. As far as I am aware nothing occurred? I personally think areas away of N England and Scotland won't see anything. However, BBC weather has stated things are finely balanced where it means either nothing could happen at all, or we could see some severe thunderstorms develop in some regions. Someone prod that cap!

The CAPE charts look fantastic, but unfortunately for many further South this will be a wasted opportunity, even when the heat gets swept away later this week. Unless we see capping reduce to allow some form of trigger to get convection going, any storms may be quite isolated. I need to learn how to interpret them, but the forecast soundings like VillagePlank posted above are good tool to see what chances are like. Fingers crossed that some people see something out of this heat, at least.

There are signals for some heavy precipitation to develop Weds afternoon/evening for parts of Wales and Midlands Northwards, prior to a more westerly interlude moving in. I suspect capping or lack of trigger results in little activity South of that at the moment. Example - NetWx-MR for Weds 6pm: So not without interest for some at least, depending what these charts look like in a couple of days time.

First strikes appeared down near Exeter

I felt that the AROME model was good at picking up yesterday's storms and lack of interest for Western areas. I will be keen to see how well it performs today:

Can see showers forming around the Channel Islands already, so I'd expect them to develop as they head NE. Looks like I am too far West again today unless a surprise pops up. Maybe from those developing down near Exeter? Today's storms I imagine will be based more on surface heating of the day. Hopefully we get more chances through the Summer. A great weekend really when looking at strikes in past 72 hours.

Just goes to show it always comes down to now casting. Really this is quite different to what was showing just this morning on many models. AROME was probably the closest in my opinion. Stark difference in precip forecast from 18z and actual....

I think this is pretty much what we will see tonight, so yes Lyme bay eastwards are the best areas to be in my opinion. The below surface pressure chart by the Met Office shows where the trough is positioned later tonight, which is moving in a NE direction. This is where I expect to see the storms. A fair amount more of a NE trajectory than what was showing just yesterday by some models. Difficult beasts to forecast.

Absolutely. Fingers crossed. There are more strikes popping up further West. Just a waiting game and eyes on the radars!

Think W country may miss out this time. Storms seem to be heading for SE areas. I think line east of weymouth is a good call from AJ earlier. But as always...anything could crop up. Shame I can't go out driving tonight as things look ripe for some fun and games down there.

Met office warnings have updated and has expanded the risk zone to cover more areas further west & north than previously. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings

Literally just put head on pillow....lightning overhead

Saw some lightning to my south but typically it refuses to come up past Bristol. As things this way seem to be dwindling...Bed time! Enjoy all.

Why the absolute crawl to get anything N of Bristol...it all swerved towards Cardiff!!

Bristol doing it's best to stop lightning getting past.... but it will reinvigorate after it's gone North.

I can hear the rumbling going on in the distance now...nearly here....if it keeps up!!!

I should be in bed...but I can't the anticipation is sky high. It will be interesting to see what happens when it starts getting warmer after sunrise.

Is it really going to do this to me?

Flashes in the distance from Weymouth harbour webcam https://www.dorsetforyou.gov.uk/webcams/weymouth-harbour

You can pretty much see now how the storms are firing along the trough as it moves North. Just close that gap as you move up towards the W country please

Latest met office rainfall forecast (updated at 1am) is an upgrade for many in my opinion - 5am forecast shown below.... Fingers crossed. Tomorrow still looking good for those further N and NE as Saturday progresses.

Amazing footage in Cornwall. My eyes are looking on the tail end of the trough heading up. Seems to be some recent strikes near the Channel Islands.

It's not very often I'm too far East