Chris K

It would ideally need to retrogress up towards mid-Atlantic/Iceland/Greenland, but the jet seems too strong for this to occur. Generally it means a SW/westerly or a slight NW feed at best on occasion. In other words, get rid of it.

In my opinion we need to be careful here when comparing charts to previous years. The setup of Low pressure moving across the Atlantic against a High pressure over/to East of UK is a relatively common occurrence year-round (to varying strengths and positions etc). However, the whole Northern Hemispheric pattern I would class as substantially different. This year, we have heights "attacking" the polar regions and a vortex that is weaker, more fragmented and predominantly towards the Siberian side at times. We have had a quiet, blocked autumn overall. Of course, for the UK, it would result in similar surface conditions at this point on the charts you have posted, but I do not feel it would necessarily follow the same pattern as last year. There are many other factors that can affect the outcome and these are constantly changing. I await with interest as we approach mid-December, to see how it all looks to be panning out for the first winter month.

I think it certainly is possible to get a below average December if a blocking high was situated over the UK. Night minimum temps can be very low (imby we are forecast -5c in rural areas tonight) and temps in the day likely to he low-mid single figures....depending on cloud cover and positioning of the High.

Thanks Matt for that update - It really helps people like me, who want to learn and further understand how different charts and outputs are interpreted (like the soundings) The forecasts have mentioned many areas will likely see more cloud as the week progresses, probably my least favourite weather as it just stays constantly chilly and grey...blehh...

I suppose it ties in with their previous longer range thoughts of a milder, unsettled start to December... It will be interesting to see if hints of colder weather returning starts to appear towards the middle of the month. In the mean time, settled, chilly and frosty nights where skies clear. After all the rain from Storm Angus we had here, it can stay that way for now!

Indeed...although hopefully it does not end up being a cloudy high with endless days of cold, grey skies... Sunshine and frost please!

Being the time of year, this would actually be chilly/cold on the surface, particularly overnight with widespread frost if skies clear and winds fall light near the centre.

However, it is worth bearing in mind that these are based on model outputs and analysis to provide an indication of possible outcomes against normal climatology. Being the chaotic beast that meteorology is, if a new unexpected signal is picked up, or development occurs, this can potentially change surface conditions for the UK quite substantially. I think this is why people often criticise these longer range text forecasts for being "wrong", when in-fact it is just as liable to change. I do have confidence in their forecasts, but it is easy to over-analyse these. This page is useful for defining and interpreting their various forecasts, whether it is 1-2 days ahead or 3 months... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/public-sector/contingency-planners

Starting to see many of our local B roads flooding now, as this area is littered with small streams. Apart from a small window, the rain has been relentless. 30mm recorded so far. At least it looks to be drying up later this evening, although showers are still quite likely.

Whew....just drove back home from South Bristol into South Gloucestershire. Atrocious conditions. Many of the A and B roads had surface run off flooding and rain is reducing visibility to almost nil....

I find we often do quite well around the Bristol Channel in these sort of setups - nothing plumetastic but interesting to see these sharp thundery showers crop up quickly.

Yep T&L up here just North of Bristol too! Where was this in the summer eh...

Reading IDO's post, I don't think he was suggesting a lengthy zonal westerly dominated period. Rather, a brief transitional pattern of unsettled weather before the outputs suggest a move towards a cool/cold NW flow towards the end of next week, which is 7-10 days away.

I had something similar back during the Summer - it probably is lightning to be honest, as at night time the flashes can be seen from a fair old distance. I was walking back from the pub one night (sober I may add) and I saw flashes wayyy in the distance to the NW. Checked the radar when I got in and there were storms over W/NW Wales. So I assume that is what was causing them.

Never too late to see storms, although yes plumes of the best instability pretty much dwindle from now until the Spring as the continent begins to cool into the autumn & winter seasons. The year has been somewhat poor again for this region. Apart from I think 1-2 odd days of brief thundery showers (still more than some here I guess...), it has taken until this month to see quite an impressive day on Tuesday (even though Bristol bizarrely escaped pretty much unscathed). Still...a noticeable lack of big imports from our South this year. Hope anyone affected by damage and flooding take care and those who have enjoyed a light show got some pics. Certainly a fresher feel when I woke up this morning. I fear this week was pretty much the end of my "thunderstorm hunting season" and now I am turning to interesting autumnal storm development and of course...winter!

Front is forecast to be quite potent across eastern areas later. Dare I mention the phrase "heavy and potentially thundery rain"? Bristol region too far West today me thinks. Off to the pub to enjoy the warmth whilst it lasts! Good luck all have fun.

Any storms should they develop will tease us by about 50 miles to our East/SE. You can bet your bottom dollar on it!

Sun is back out here but actually feels rather fresh outside. Activity seems to be dwindling for now?

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather 7m W COUNTRY RADAR 1250BST After current storms depart, we'll be watching further developments from France, moving N:

A relatively brief storm with rumbles now heading off North/NW past Gloucester. Saw a few flashes but mainly intra-cloud. Interesting day! Are the storms in the Channel likely to head north during the afternoon? Parts of Wales/NW England could be in for a treat later.

Thunder just arriving now too, 10 miles North of Bristol.

I still think bristol will be sandwiched between the two lines, but... Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather 18m W COUNTRY 1100BST Latest lightning shows swathe via #Somerset; storms into #Dorset will track NNW towards #Bristol

For us Bristolians that gap is certainly still there. Think I have heard a couple of distant rumbles from Cardiff. Takes the biscuit - not quite sure where that lot near Weymouth is heading - probably to our East.

Shame I can't get out and about today, because there's one thing with it's sights on Bristol and at the moment it's that gap between the two lines of storms.

That gap better get plugged...