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Frozen Britain

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  1. Frozen Britain
    Thanks. Do you know when the next 'upwelling' phase is due to commence in the stratosphere? The 'downwelling' phase commenced in December. Do you think that northern blocking is likely to sustain itself beyond April? It's a good thing that we have the northern blocking sooner rather than later?
  2. Frozen Britain
    Do you t Do you think we will see any summer-like weather during April GP, like we have seen in the past week? Thanks
  3. Frozen Britain
    No snow in Ayrshire. Heavy rain. Need Greenland blocking for snow and a big freeze. (Look at the last two winters - both had Greenland blocking and look what happened) Scandi blocking is hopeless - only delivers to England and Wales.
  4. Frozen Britain
    I take that is not what cold lovers want to hear, then?
  5. Frozen Britain
    Thank you for the reply GP. It looks likely from the models that the current dross that the pattern will continue for at least another 4 weeks if your thinking is right. Do you (and Paul) have a date yet for the winter forecast? When do you expect to release that? Is it still a work in progress? Thanks
  6. Frozen Britain
    When do you think the atmosphere will become dislodged from its current state GP? It seems there is something inhibiting the movement of the GWO into a more desirable phase? How much longer do you think we will have to endure the current pattern?
  7. Frozen Britain
    What level within the stratosphere do we want to see a warming initiate? The 100hpa is looking good as does the 70hpa - then when you move further up the warming dissipates to nothing. Why is the warming unable to move further up the stratosphere? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t100_nh_f48.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t100_nh_f96.gif
  8. Frozen Britain
    Does ECM agree tonight?
  9. Frozen Britain
    Westerly winds inhibit blocking; easterly winds favour blocking. Strong zonal winds are indicative of a strong vortex and vice versa? A warming or something has to happen in the stratosphere to reverse the zonal winds to make them weaker to encourage a weaker vortex?
  10. Frozen Britain
    Please, explain how to read this chart? How do you interpret what is shown on the diagram? What do the wavy lines indicate? What do the colours mean?
  11. Frozen Britain
    How long does it take for residual winds to be removed from the atmosphere? When did it start? I remember last year after the freeze, GP told us that a downwelling of the QBO was occurring and would inhibit any further warmings - this year that is happening earlier, and is a good thing for this coming winter. Sorry for all the questions, but I am doing so for the benefit of everyone else on this forum who wants to learn more about the stratosphere.
  12. Frozen Britain
    What factors do you think will be most responsible for a warming to occur this year? At this stage, it looks like if we are to get a big freeze, the earliest it will now occur is the beginning of December - because last year, a warming was already happening by now, and is not this year?
  13. Frozen Britain
    Isn't it a good thing [ based on GP's winter review ] that the vortex is most likely to set up shop over Canada this winter? This will allow a trough over Scandi, and heights to build in the favourable locations and all the other jigsaw pieces?
  14. Frozen Britain
    (Replying to chiono's post #21) Is this good or bad in terms of prospects for winter, chio? Thanks
  15. Frozen Britain
    I don't think he does. Reading his comments it seems that he takes weather patterns into account from the months in the run up to winter. He never mentions these things when he makes a forecast. He seems to take Solar activity and ENSO into account, but never mentions other factors, so I think it is unlikely.
  16. Frozen Britain
    Brian Gaze has just posted his early thoughts for the upcoming winter (2011/12) over on TWO. Discuss his thoughts below. Here's the link: http://theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1821
  17. Frozen Britain
    Just seen this over on accuweather.com: http://www.accuweath...ded-dry-str.asp Looks like the progged settled spell is pretty much nailed now.
  18. Frozen Britain
    Just seen this over on accuweather.com: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/55329/europe-to-see-extended-dry-str.asp Looks like the progged settled spell is pretty much nailed now.
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