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Frozen Britain

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Everything posted by Frozen Britain

  1. Frozen Britain
    So the troughs and ridges are in the right place? Why do you say about Atlantic/Pacific for Greenland blocking as opposed to the Canada/Russia set up that is in the modelling now?
  2. Frozen Britain
    So what northern hemispheric pattern would we have ideally like to have seen this month as opposed to the 3 requirements you point out that we have now? What setup would give us an Atlantic/Pacific rather than Canada/Russia northern hemisphere pattern? What do we need to see in the modelling to increase wave 2?
  3. Frozen Britain
    Just seen these. Wow, wow, wow. How is this for warming at the top of the stratosphere down?
  4. Frozen Britain
    Yes sorry I should have said it was his early thoughts
  5. Frozen Britain
    Brian Gaze on The Weather Outlook (TWO) going for milder and wetter than average winter this year. http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=2485
  6. Frozen Britain
    Hello Chionomaniac, Would you care to elaborate? (1)Couldn't we still get warming from the strong ozone we have seen during October over Canada and Alaska, despite very little, if any, wave breaking activity? (2)From your post, I assume that is what you mean - that there will be very little wave breaking because the northern hemispheric pattern you are expecting for November is unfavourable for it? (3)Could you tell us all what you expect in terms of wave activity and the northern hemispheric pattern you do expect, that brings you to the conclusion that conditions going forward do not favour much in the way of warming? Thank you.
  7. Frozen Britain
    Do we now assume that 2009 had a warmer stratosphere than this year? From the graph, it seems at this point this year the stratosphere is cooling whereas it begin to warm at this point in 2009 holding temperatures up? But up until now, it seems temperatures have not been too dissimilar to 2009. **EDIT. We have actually had a warmer stratosphere at certain points this autumn than 2009, but on the downside, we are cooler just now, as we speak, than in 2009, but hopefully that Asian warming Karyo picked up on the 6z will help to get us back up to 2009 levels going forward. The chart for this year shows peaks and troughs indicating some warming along the way and not the uniform cooling we would expect during autumn. The 2009 chart shows some periods of substantial warming during that winter. I hope we can do that this year. Someone can feel free to correct me if I've interpreted the graphs wrong.
  8. Frozen Britain
    Do we have that for this year?
  9. Frozen Britain
    I voted Yes, so I am one of the 45%. Much calmer today and we have a big Asian warming stretching the vortex. Fingers crossed it is the start of a trend.
  10. Frozen Britain
    Indeed Karyo. That wasn't there yesterday. Rapid cooling was underway. That is quite a big warming. We lose the white colour at 1hpa and almost lose it further down the stratosphere too. I really hope this is still showing tomorrow. Fingers crossed.
  11. Frozen Britain
    I'm sorry this post is off-topic but I notice we have been merged with the North of England (Scotland) - and no disrespect to people in the North of England, of course. Very wet today. I wonder if we will see a repeat of November 2009 then the cold builds for mid December? The stratosphere is rapidly cooling just now particularly at the top of the stratosphere. No wave breaking forecast. Disappointing. December will be mild if there is no warming soon. Saying that, ozone over Canada and Alaska has been very persistent this month.
  12. Frozen Britain
    Still looking good at 30hpa level. IIRC, this time last year, 30hpa level was purple throughout the entire run from start to finish. Long may it continue. Ozone also still looking good. I wonder if they will still look like that after the clocks change and there is dramatically less sunlight all of a sudden?
  13. Frozen Britain
    Nobody has said anything about how good total ozone has been in the stratosphere recently. It has strong ozone for the entire run to t120.
  14. Frozen Britain
    Which brought this? [see attached thumbnail] Some mouthwatering pictures to get us in the mood for the season ahead. We are now more than half way through October. Still looking like some warming is going on, but at 2hpa and 5hpa the cooling is ramping up, unfortunately, but looking good at other levels.
  15. Frozen Britain
    Good to see some decent warming at 1hpa and 2hpa from 24hrs out to the end of the run! Although way too early yet I suspect.
  16. Frozen Britain
    But surely wave breaking events could warm the stratosphere despite the lack of a polar vortex?
  17. Frozen Britain
    What are they telling us, Recretos? I cannot read charts. Thanks.
  18. Frozen Britain
    Fine. But at the moment, I assume things are looking better than last year? We have weak El Nino, east QBO, low sunspot activity?
  19. Frozen Britain
    The warm autumn stratosphere in 2009 and 2010 were both caused by enhanced Brewer Dobson Circulation or planetary waves? And thanks for responding. When will you post some early thoughts on this winter?
  20. Frozen Britain
    Could someone tell me if mountain torques etc can cause warming of the stratosphere in the autumn time like it does during winter? We get strong MJO waves during the year which GP has told us is essential for good weather in June for example. Is that applicable to the stratosphere? Are there any strong waves forecast which could help to warm the stratosphere over the coming weeks? I think that the warm stratosphere we got in 2009 and December 2010 were caused by the Brewer Dobson circulation being enhanced. Thank you.
  21. Frozen Britain
    Now that it is Autumn (the 1st of September), we will really notice it getting dark in the evenings rapidly now. The dark evenings rapidly increase and ramp up at this time of year. 3 weeks yesterday we have the equinox meaning that 3 weeks today days will have more darkness than daylight until next March. A depressing thought.
  22. Frozen Britain
    Isn't that the case every year? Can you compare with this time last year? Perhaps Chiono can confirm?
  23. Frozen Britain
    You are saying, then, that it is likely that summer will be as good as last year? I know HLB is not the only factor, but you already know that HLB over Greenland means trough stuck like a limpet to the UK for summer.
  24. Frozen Britain
    A message for chionomaniac. Could you indicate any thoughts on how spring will pan out in terms of stratospheric warming and blocking? Any chance it could be favourable like last year, which gave that spectacular weather in July? Thanks.
  25. Frozen Britain
    Yes. Very often in previous summers, with the exception of July last year, summers in the UK tend to be characterised by high pressure over the Arctic, Arctic blocking as it is often called. This pushes the jet stream south of the UK. If there is no Arctic blocking like last summer, then summer has a much better chance of being good than poor and wet. The high pressure over the Arctic is caused by the stratosphere. It is likely that there was a final warming which took place in the spring months, and this stays routed to the Arctic for the remainder of summer, very often.
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