Frozen Britain

Really surprised at how much snow there is so it seems I'm in the same boat as everyone else. It's still snowing now. Tomorrow is expected to be dry and then another front coming in on Monday but I wonder if it will be snow or rain. I'll post updates here.

Snowing really heavily now and some big flakes and is turning everything white pretty quickly. Wasn't GFS the first model to predict the High Pressure this weekend? Looks like it got it wrong then? So was ECM or UKMO closer to the mark? Is there any more snowfall expected over the coming few days?

I know. I was shocked when it snowed last January! Same again this year. I know it's very hard to get snow here. I hate my Mum for moving me to Ayrshire. Where I used to live was better for snow.

It's snowing here in Kilmarnock and has been for the past 45 minutes but just little flakes and lying too. Temperature is -1C.

What's all this talk about snow tomorrow night? I thought that high pressure was set to dominate during the weekend killing off any frontal activity?

currently raining.

snowing here now Great to see it again snow is lying too

Where do you access charts that show forecasts for wet bulb temperature, dew points? Still pouring here. This upcoming "cold spell" looks to be nothing remarkable.

So not today then? When?

Heavy rain here. Will it turn back to snow?

Snow is thawing here in Kilmarnock, East Ayrshire. Heavy rain outside. A thaw is underway. Will the cold and snow return? Can someone tell me if Thursday is the only day that snow is expected this coming week with the exception of tomorrow as the cold is not expected till Monday night?

It is raining here too. I wonder if it will turn to snow. It started as rain yesterday too. Milder air must have moved in.

It looks like there is a band of precipitation heading north. Will it fizzle out before it reaches Scotland? And does anyone know if temperatures are expected to rise meaning rain rather than snow? Thanks.

Winter wonderland here now. Will it last?

I have heavy sleet. I say it is sleet as it is not lying and I don't expect it to.

Didn't notice any lightning. Just noticing all the photographs of people who have had lots of the white stuff and nothing here. There has been sleet here but nothing else. I think I will move to the Highlands.

Snap. I think me and you are in the mildest parts of the country.

Is that fax chart showing another band of precipitation moving down/in from the west/northwest?

Snowing here in Kilmaurs near Kilmarnock in East Ayrshire. I was not expecting that. My location always escapes arctic weather whenever we get any. Winds coming from the north mean we are sheltered from any wintry weather. Is this the only snowfall that is expected from this cold snap? Is there any more forecast? I've heard that it is to be dry this weekend.

OK so the thinking (or general consensus) is that December will be mild this year? and the potential for blocking not until late December (or more likely - early January)? I notice that AAM is not mentioned in that forecast Sebastian copied in from Americanwx. ***EDIT: Sorry AAM is mentioned.

Coldest winter in 50 years due to El Nino. https://uk.news.yahoo.com/britain-may-face-coldest-winter-064022054.html#1x9vVBK

What phase of the QBO is expected this winter? Can you have rising and falling angular momentum (GLAAM) in a strong El Nino? Rising and falling GLAAM is good for cold in winter according to Glacier Point. The analogues pointed out by Glacier Point for this winter and 1972, 1982 and 1997 - with 1997 and 1982 the closest matches for this year. Can anyone explain the significance of the extratropical interactions observed in the analogue years for winter? Thanks if anyone can offer some input. It looks like we are now moving into a westerly phase of the QBO for this winter unfortunately. The figure for August was 10.97. Last winter we had a negative (or easterly) phase of the QBO. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-34236010 Strongest El Nino since 1950 on the way: An El Nino climate event is under way that could potentially become one of the strongest events since 1950. That's according to a new Met Office report which says that 2015 has already seen the warmest start to any year on record. It also outlines that El Nino is one of three key climate patterns that could lead to changes in our global temperature. The event occurs when the waters of the Pacific become exceptionally warm and distort weather patterns around the world.

1995 had one of the longest spells of hot summer weather on record and yet that winter was also one of the best I can remember. I was 7 years old that winter and remember that summer and winter very clearly. A relative of mine got married that summer and I remember very very clearly the longevity of the hot weather that year and then the cold winter that followed. But I hope the article is right that it could potentially bring a cold winter too.

I just had a thought. Just this week past there have been about 4 category 3/4 hurricanes in the Pacific due to the El Nino. This will be sending warmth right up into the atmosphere. Doesn't this mean that it will warm the tropical stratosphere and decrease the likelihood of stratospheric warmth this winter? I say this because the thermal gradient between the tropical and polar stratosphere impacts on the strength of the vortex does it not? Don't you need a really cold tropical stratosphere and a warm polar stratosphere to prevent the vortex from strengthening? Therefore a warm tropical stratosphere isn't a good sign if you want a weak vortex in winter? So can anyone tell me if the current El Nino which is warming the tropical stratosphere will impact on us come winter? Anyone? Thank you. I know this isn't the media thread but Alex Deakin has just mentioned the warming of the atmosphere from the developing El Nino and the fact that it is warming the atmosphere so I thought it would be relevant to this thread in this instance. I am going to put in a link to the video here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/34159718 It would be great if chionomaniac or Glacier Point could answer so that everyone then knows the impact (if there is any).