Frozen Britain

Raining here at 3C what’s the forecast for this evening?

Where are you in the Highlands Northern Strat? No snow here but first hard frost of the season

Will this verify? Something to watch in the coming days and weeks to see if the trend continues....................

First frost here this morning ...........the air is noticeably now much colder and has been the past couple of mornings Hopefully a much better winter than last year which was disappointing....very snowless compared to 2017/18

I know we are only at the end of September and October just round the corner less than 2 days away but I wonder if chionomaniac would like to give us some early indications as to whether or not he thinks September this year is similar to back in 2009 or 2010? Would anyone perhaps less knowledgeable when it comes to the stratosphere and autumn patterns like to have a go at answering my question?

As for the weather this week it is looking drier than last week - rain towards the end of the week, which is uncertain at the moment but Thursday and Friday look the wettest days

Just to add to my return to the thread post - I remember chionomaniac mentioned back in 2009 why that winter was so good (and why we saw such eye watering synoptics so early on in the season which of course materialised) is because during the autumn that year the stratosphere underwent repeated minor warmings and never really dramatically cooled then in December everything changed from what everyone on here remembers the very mild windy and wet November to the change to the Big Freeze that was in the papers and such like I know we are only at the end of September and October just round the corner less than 2 days away but I wonder if chionomaniac would like to give us some early indications as to whether or not he thinks September this year is similar to back in 2009 or 2010? Would anyone perhaps less knowledgeable when it comes to the stratosphere and autumn patterns like to have a go at answering my question?

Good to be back on the thread again after what seems like a long hiatus. I don't have high expectations for the coming winter - 2017/18 was good here and 2009/10 and December 2010 were the most memorable and 1995 too; last winter only had a couple of times where we had any decent snow. I think though there will be at least 1 spell of snow this winter however it pans out. Nothing really to get excited about just yet - certainly not until after the clocks change should we get excited about wintry synoptics IMO

They must have been westQBO winters Mr data? Were they, or were they not? We are currently heading towards eQBO and that was filtered into the analogues as this is where we are headed for this coming winter. Perhaps I should have mentioned the QBO.

Here are the analogues I was talking about. The pre solar minimum winters occur inside 2 years of solar minimum. The post solar minimum (the one we're interested in) occurs inside of 2 years after solar minimum.

Sorry to put a dampener on prospects for the upcoming winter. If the analogues are to be believed that pre solar minimum winters are not conducive to extensive northern blocking/Greenland ridges, then this winter will not be one to remember. The analogues for pre-solar minimum winters show high pressure over Scandinavia, low pressure over Europe, a ridge in the Atlantic and the polar vortex over Greenland or low pressure over Greenland. The past has shown the UK to have its coldest winters when the sun is quiet, hence the exceptional UK winters in the 1600's/1700's. We are heading to solar minimum just now so no Greenland blocking this year unfortunately (this is what the analogues show as I've already said). The sun is on roughly an 11 point something years cycle. The most recent stunning winters of 2009/10 and December 2010 followed solar minimum in 2007/2008. The exceptionally stunning cold in December 2010 came to an abrupt halt due to a descending wQBO. Solar minimum isn't expected till 2019. So will either be 2019/20 or after that for a Greenland blocking winter. For now, we should of course be looking to the models for verification of what the analogues are showing. Will the atmospheric setup match the analogues this coming winter?

Really pleased to see some good charts now in the reliable timeframe. Friday and Saturday looking the best days for some of the white stuff.

Heavy sleet here. Absolutely wasn't expecting that. My iPhone says the current outside temperature is 4C outside and expected to fall to 3C then 2C overnight and climb back up to 6C. Having said that it shows snow tonight at 8pm and 9pm.

Is there a link between AO and Eurasian snow cover during Autumn? What I mean is, if the AO is negative how does that impact on snowcover? Does it help or hinder it? What about AO? Is there any correlation or link between them, or is there no concluding evidence? I know Steve Murr has already looked at Octobers with a -AO and what that means for the winter months, but what about the impact of that on snowcover?

So it seems development of the polar vortex has been weak so far this autumn. Can anyone explain what an anomalous and meridional flow is and how that is linked to heat flux and its impact on thermal gradients? GP mentioned the westerly wind being restricted to the southern hemisphere (I take it he's talking about the QBO?) - I wonder if this is linked to the SH not following its usual pattern of final warming?

Been snowing here for an hour now. Started off as rain. Everything white now. Definitely wasn't expecting this at the end of April. Is it sunshine and showers today or a prolonged band of precipitation? Is this Arctic outbreak expected to last beyond today? Thank you anyone who can offer that information.

Raining hard outside. If it keeps up I fully expect all the snow to be gone when I get up tomorrow.

Snow has turned to rain in Kilmarnock. Temperature was 3C earlier. Temperature is now 2C. Milder air incoming? Or is it to get colder again? I can't follow the model thread sometimes.

It was snowing here too a wee while ago then it looked like it had either turned to rain or stopped snowing - one or the other.

Wonder if that frontal system heading in our direction and currently over Ireland will reach here or fizzle out to a band of cloud due to the high pressure?

It's snowing very very lightly just now. I'd put pictures up if I'd a decent camera.

Snow has now stopped. It was great watching it fall.

Today's snow has been great. To be honest I think in my location this is as good as it gets without a proper Greenland block which is not looking likely this winter.

Still snowing outside. It's been snowing since 10 o'clock this morning here. Temperature is now 0C. Temperature was 1C during the afternoon.