mrmonopoly

Guys I have been telling you this will happen for last few days. Its already drizzle here (of the rain variety). I could see the DAM and HPA being blown north the whole time. IM not an expert but I can read charts. I predicted mid wales for snow but even thats only for a limited time. The adlantic is a lot stronger than people think it is. You also have to bare in mind this cold snap has out lived most cold snaps in the last 30 years. There is still plenty of winter left yet a whole 8 weeks or so. Even March can bring heavy snowfall. There is still plenty of actvity in the arctic and things can and probably will take a turn in Feb.

that 17CM thawed quick then Its already starting to turn to rain over the east midlands

As GFS suggested earlier, the adlantic is going to push in through next week swinging the winds from south (usuall ish direction) pushing the cold air further north across the country. This will significantly increase the upper temps and will stop the easterly we have depended on to keep the cold. This will also increase the ground temp causeing a thaw. I think the high points will see snow/wet snow for a time, before the air is pushed back. I think that low out to the adlantic was not over estimated like many suggested looking at GFS earlier in the week. This can still change tho, maybe something magical will happen and GFS will do a sudden U_Turn and that is very possible.

GFS strikes again. I think for many of us tommorow and tuesday its going to rain like I have been saying since friday. According to GFS the cold is not going to return to south wales at all, looking at it saturday is up to 7oC here which is a big change from yesterday.

Thats what I have been saying all along but I got slated for it lol

I think im going to take a trip up there on sunday for a butchers.

They are pretty good under normal conditions, but this isnt a normal condition. i think its because there based on old GFS data which currently keeps chaning its mind like the wind "Pardon the pun". I Really hope Tuesday turns into a snow fest wouldnt that be ser real. I not seen mega snow yet not since 1983 from what I can remember. It be nice to see one of these events to tell my kids about if it ever happens again. I really see winters getting worse now as years go on, to try and compensate for global warming. Someone mentiones a day after tommorow event and thats honestly how I see the globe reacting to our lifestyles. When you rhink about it these snow storms cost us a fortune in money, keeping house warm, council tax cleaning up the mess, not to mention on health. So its a bit of give and take

I do to, but its what I am basing some of what I am saying on. people keep saying im talking poop as it where, its because I am using data from another source and im not so fast to jump on the cold will last till next decade run. I totally belive what Jackone said.

Try looking here. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=4;type=free;ct=~SA12;sess=#forecast So no I am not talking "Poop" again thank you this one for Amman Valley http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=4;type=free;ct=~SA18;sess=#forecast so it appears BBC is either correct and this site is wrong , or BBC are wrong and this one is right. Dont take what BBC says is gospel, if it said it be 53oC tommorow with a chance of a hurricane would you belive it.

This website, go to forecasts and enter post code for the week ahead (SA18) and (sa12). 20% chance of snow apparently at 12:00 which is when it says heaviest rain is forecast

Forecast for Ammanford and port talbot is still heavy rain on the local forecast on here for tuesday. When do those usually get updated.

Ahh yes, maybe the charts not updated on datacentre yet. So basically the warm front is pushed over the top of the could air creating snow sorta like mid way through atmosphere. Does that not the sort of setup that causes thunderstorms.

That wouldnt happen to be the one opposite Garnant Club would it lol Anyways GFS still shows milder air pushing into SW and S Wales on coasts on tuesday its 50/50 which wins id say.

Im giving that some serious thought

I didnt mean it to come across like that. I dont realise sometimes. Its going to be a very very fine rain/snow boundry how long it stays snow for is yet to be seen. But can we agree on one thing next week it will turn to rain at some point during tuesday. im not saying temps will go from 0oC to 7oC in a blink of a eye. It will happen as the low pushes in. Gradually!. 7oC I admit is really stupid, I think it be around 3 or 4oC but the upper HPA temps are also close to or above freezing so its just not cold enough to keep the precep snow on lower levels. Your high up so you got a good chance of keeping it for a little while longer than us down here.

I know mate at times I wish id stayed in Amman Valley little bit of green eyed monster for me. im slightly envious of people with mega snow. There is a lot of it due for next 48 hours for us tho hopefully it will move further south . But next week is the focus of my posts.

i think thats because there both using differant models and each one places the percep in differant places.

Not being misserale, im trying to sit on the fence, but because I have a differant ideal to the snow lovers im getting bashed for my prediction and its starting to annoy me. This is a forum thats open to discussion. He keeps slapping me down but where is his prediction and what does he base his on? Most people agree with me in the detailed discussion thread the next few days from tuesday onwards are dicy at best and its a very fine line between snow/rain/freezing rain boundry. me being pretty much as south as you can get in wales Bar swansea etc here the chances of rain are far higher than anyone in the valleys and beyond.

Thats actually pretty funny because all my family live there, and they clearly stated 17cm is now over doing it slightly. I said the block wouldnt be removed completly I said it retreats northwards. Have you seen the jetstream charts for wednesday with a huge plume of warm air being drawn up from the south. I dont take GFS as gospel at all. I take it into consideration but I am defending the bashing GFS has had lately because it does not favour everyones expectations. You probably be ok for a snow event this weekend thats not what I am questioning here. I am looking at Tuesday and beyond. The adlantic as we speak is attaking this block. I DONT want it to go anywhere and I would love to be wrong. I am just putting a slant on it. I can see you to have been reading the model thread and you should know I am not the only person who is saying this. I am giving people my opinion, and if my opinion does not favour the I am having snow and everything else goes out the window then tuff.

Thats exactly what I said previously

I also return with all due respect. I am not a mild lover, in fact I am the complete opposite I hate it when its 6oC and its chucking it down I just stay indoors I become agrophobic because its horrible. Like last few days ive loved going for a walk. But yes I think your right. Remember I lived in Garnant for 20 years I was born there and I grew up there. I am basing this on the discussions in the model chat, reading as much information as possible, and looking at things outside of the box. Yes temps wont be back to normal thats not what I am saying. What I am saying is temps will be to warm for it to snow beyond monday/tuesday. The conditions are just not there. The block retreats back into north areas of wales, and over the beacons (because of the height) and into the midlnds. We are now on the other side of the block and its returning back to conditions before xmas. And I was not wrong in my observations last event, because here we had 1cm of snow the whole time. Of which the large majority of it has now gone. It didnt snow like mad like it did for some people. And I think you will find I noticed that particular low moving west towards us before many others did. I am not forecast expert but what I do have experiance in his many many winters before me. I also have experiance in looking at the charts for storm season when I go chasing around the UK for that perfect lightning photograph. Thats why I moved to the coast of wales so I could see the storms in the channel and the picture of a lifetime I so badly want. 0oC temps dont mean snow there are a lot of other factors to take into account. I think you will also find the GFS clearly states 7oC for temp in south wales on wednesday which is a long way off 0oC your stating. People are very quick to go with the model that sugested the colder air and the more precep. GFS has been pretty reliable over the years, and I am not so quick to dismiss it. I am going for something in the middle and maybe 7oC is a bit on the harsh side, but it will rise to at least 3-4oC which makes snow almost impossible considering the HPS temps above.

I think the snow fall for sunday is going to be light in nature but a long period of it. Most of the action again tends to be over mid wales like the last load. Further north you are the more snow your going to get. As for monday/tuesday I am of the opinion looking at everything this break down will be quicker than said. For those of us on the south side will see sleet at best. It will snow for a time over the beacons and heads of the valley before that to turns to sleet by which time it be rain further down. The rain will then turn heavy and all the focus will then go to flooding rather than snow, the rain will sit on the ice for a short time before it errodes it away. People keep talking about low surface temps but its science, if it rains on top the surface temp will rise quickly as the percep will be warmer. I personally dont want to see any sort of breakdown I love the fresh air the cold brings and also the dry it brings. You can go for a walk and feel alive. Normally I just want to sit indoors and think sod that its horrid outside with cold damp crap. I suggest everyone enjoys the last few days, go out and buy all the milk and bread you can because you get the sudden urge to (he he) local Co-OP 1 loaf per person only and 2 pints of milk. On a side note, what makes me laugh is what nutritional value do you get just eating bead and milk! why not stock up on burgers and spuds.

The forecast here on tuesday is a high of 2oC then suddenly on wednesday it jumps to 7oC and rain that sounds like a pretty fast break down to me and it seems to stay that was for the rest of the run. I took this data using the long range forecast on here. Does that not mean the adlantic wins on the first attempt. I love this sort of weather not much snow here but the air is so crisp and fresh it be a shame to return to damp horrid mildish ness. So if I am looking at things correctly a lot depends on a high preassure remain in place over scandanavia pushing our jet stream over europe this allowing the wind to come from a much colder area. The breakdown to me still seems way to quick and easy. My location is south wales by the way. And storm boy your right plenty of time, but the general view is, feb will be a normal winter month for us with adlantic usual to hot for snow, and to cold for it to be nice. What we have all come to expect from winter. Then I look forward to may with the storm season starting I wonder what effects this winter will have on our spring

That looks intresting, it increases to just below zero you can see the semi break down then over the next 3 days it drops right back down again before a steady increase towards feb. IS that the classic reload scenario

I understand those ones ok. What I am trying to say is thats confused me. Why is the breakdown occuring on the east side of the country or why does that seem to be the focus of the discussions.