shedhead
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Posts posted by shedhead
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I'd like to say/know, but my raingauge is still under 9" of water! So will need to wait for Yeoviltons numbers to get a decent idea.
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Nome AK hit 51f yesterday, smashing the old record of 46f. Ave Jan max is 11f, so 40f above normal which equates to a 84f (29c) max in London.
Now we all know it's been mild, but the day we see a 29c max in Jan will be the time to really panic, well for the few thousand left living on top the Cairngorms it will be...
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Looking at the current NWP, my winter forecast that I declared dead early last week then reincarnated on Friday, now looks dead again! Very happy with how the first half panned out, but my late Jan slide into a cold, wintry Feb now looks bust unless there is some sort or dramatic turn round or a VVSSW...
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One thing is absolutely certain, if this flooding was in and around Chipping Norton it would have been sorted weeks and weeks ago....in fact it would never have been allowed to get to this state in the first place.
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Battleground scenario at T+126
Beautifully aligned negatively tilted Atlantic low meets the cold air - northern areas could see a bonanza
Block still not strong enough and still slightly to far east to stop the Atlantic getting through though, but it's down down to edging rather than pushing. So some snow for many, but turning to sleet and eventually rain from the west IF the 06 GFS is to be believed.
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In trying to offer balance to this thread, Shed, I feel that you go too far the other way and present a bias of the opposite to the predominant cold bias that most members here show. What it would be nice for you to present is a truly balanced post, more along the lines of there is great uncertainty regarding how far the Atlantic will push through against the Scandi block following mid week. There are a number of solutions on offer from all the different models which have chopped and changed against themselves from run to run.
Perhaps even put up the ensemble anomalies, rather than one or two cherry picked operationals (even these show stalling lows) - here is one from the ECM for T+240 - this suggests that any Atlantic inroads stall or slide SE as they come up against the block:
The NAEFS suite for the same time stretches the Atlantic trough over the UK but again suggests that any Atlantic attack will not travel further east than the UK and there are suggestions again that this will slide SW.
Balance in thread is great, but when those offering it justify it by offering a bias in the opposite direction it can be very frustrating. At least those searching for cold are quite overt with the bias!
Oh and just to differentiate, here is a chart from 2 years ago showing the Atlantic 'pushing through'
That how I see things this morning Chiono..sorry about that. If you looks back across the past 24-48hrs of posts from me I was seeing it rather differently, so if 'balance' is what you truely seek, look back and understand the balance is there.
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The switching of modeling emphasis between the block and the Atlantic continues for the period after the low moves to our south around T96hrs..
ECM and GFS want to move it away but the UKMO holding firm as the next system comes in for Friday hitting the cold air.
I think this could still result in a snow event for quite a few if the UKMO is correct,especially for areas away from the sw.
T144hrs on that model shows every sign of rebuild of heights to our north as the approaching trough hits the brick wall.
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012600/UN144-21.GIF?26-06
of course until we get nearer and agreement beyond T96hrs amongst the other models this is only one option.
What raises my expectations on a more UKMO type of setup though is looking at the GFS?ECM means for T144hrs
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m6.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1441.gif
We can see the trough inclining se and held back further west compared to the op runs.This would draw the surface flow off the continent with consequently lower dew points.
Thurs/Friday looks like the days to watch to see if the block has more life in it.If it holds then i can see the pattern really changing for a colder spell.
In the short term Phil we may well get some clues from the fronts expected to cross Germany in the next 24-36hrs. On the face of it their progress eastwards seems fairly easy, despite temps of -10 to -15c now being in place, so whilst not exactly in our neck of the woods we may well learn some interesting lessons regarding the models/block durability.
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I know that is a 144hr chart. So were the two charts you posted?
No, they were the T+192hrs from GFS and ECM, which despite the overall confusion in the short/medium term looked very much alike.
So as Gibby summerised there is something of a split in the longer term evolutions between GFS/ECM on one side and GEM/NAVGEM on the other, with UKMO probably floating somewhere in the middle. Again as I said there is nothing to suggest the former will be correct, but they have shown a fairly consistent trend towards the Scandi block slipping SE, so for now if I had to put money on it I'd back them over GEM/NAVGEM. However, and this is the main point (reiterated several times yesterday) this DOES NOT MEAN MILD WEATHER, so any talk of the Atlantic coming back in should not automatically be viewed in this way.
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I think you'll find this chart does exist
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif.
My point is quite obvious, I disagree with your post about the Atlantic rolling in and am stating that if you look at all the model output instead of cherry picking charts you will see it isn't so cut and dried.
Perhaps if you read my post properly you will understand the point I made...
This has been the consistent evolution for several days now; whether it actually happens or not remains to be seen, but that is what the charts suggest and charts are what we're supposed to be discussing.
Re UKMO, that is a 144hr chart, but for the record it also shows the Scandi block moving towards becoming a Kazak block, though it is a little better placed to hold up the Atlantic...
GEM is a model that is only really taken seriously when it shows to coldest evolution...as per now.
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You forgot to show UKMO and GEM?
UKMO does not go out that far, as for the GEM, if you have a point to make please post some charts to support your views. Tks.
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I do not think anyone can give a definative forecast past thursday
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png thats a right bag of mashings.(mess)
It's pretty rare for a definative forecast to be given 4-5 days hence in any set up, but the overriding signal this morning is for the Atlantic to start pushing through again later this week, as the Scandi block becomes the Kazak block.
This has been the consistent evolution for several days now; whether it actually happens or not remains to be seen, but that is what the charts suggest and charts are what we're supposed to be discussing.
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What are all these Atlantic barreling in remarks about, personally I don't see it on either the GFS or UKMO. GFS has the Atlantic systems disrupting and sliding over the uk from around 144 to the middle of low res, so approx a week, UKMO I conceed looks poor if taken in isolation at 144, but I think again the energy from the north west should disrupt southeast..cheers.
Once again, Atlantic barrelling in, rolling in...call it what you like does NOT mean it will be mild and it does NOT mean there will be no wintry weather. No one is suggesting anything other than hopes of the kind of long, strong E'erly that UKMO were previously modelling have faded someone given it lastest update, this does not mean a 3000 mile Bermuda Blowtorch will be singeing peoples eyebrows off next week. Things need to be kept in context here, otherwise pointless bickering will ensue yet again.
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Wouldn't it be prudent to wait until this time next week to carry out the post Morton ? Who knows if today's 12z ukmo will verify over its 144 output from this morning it's quite annoying to read model back slapping before any verification has taken place!
I think we should try not to confuse what you suggest above Paul with what has actually been said by others...same point to Bristle Boy too. No one is suggesting that any given model can be declared correct with it's synoptic prediction 7 days away, but what can catagorically be said is UKMO has dropped it's strong E'erly for later next week on the 12 run and in so doing has joined in with the main consesus on a return to an Atlantic flow. Now clearly things might well change again across subsequent runs, but for now that is how things actually stand.
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Now there's a surprise. Bobby's now posting UKMO charts after ignoring them for a few days. Wonder why that would be?
Probably because, as many of us suspected/feared, the UKMO's longer term evolution has been wrong with regards to it strong Easterly for the middle of next week.
Really nothing to be gained by suggesting otherwise imo, the overall consensus has always been for the Atlantic to come bowling on back in after the briefest of continental feeds, so until that changes we probably have to accept it remains the most likely option....like it or not.
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A plausible evolution from the 6z gfs, given the gefs mean post 180! Reinforces the favourable route back to zonality post nxt wk! This winter is incessant, if nothing else!
Unfortunately it does look plausible and represents a real horror show, especially for this part of the world. Not giving up on the cold spell quite yet, but to be honest I'd trade anything now for some dry weather; the idea of more heavy rain bands frequently smashing in off the Atlantic does not bear thinking about right now...
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Nothing much more to be said about GFS/ECM, but if I had to sum their overnight offerings up in one word it would be 'disppointing'
At the other end of the spectrum however we have UKMO, which if anything is an upgrade for cold later next week despite already being the best on offer for the last 36-48hrs. Ordinarily I'd be relatively confident of UKMO at least verifying close to what'd being shown, but as well as the fact the other big 2 are not onboard my main concern is the MO do not seem to be fully buying into what their own model is showing.
More runs needed as per, but events overnight suggest this is still far from the done deal touted by some yesterday.... it is however going to turn colder, that we can take as read.
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This is a great post because of the fact that it highlights the misconceptions that are often thrown around on here regarding the zonal regime. What is patently obvious is that the Atlantic will be a spawning ground for deep depressions and that these will move westwards towards the UK, hence the westerly regime indicated. It is because these are then stalling, slipping under the block or dissipating in the vincinity of the UK that the confusion arises. We are but at the end of the westerly line in this case, rather than along the main route that we have been all winter, and the difference between this has not been picked up by some members here - hence the confusion from some and the assumption that it will turn mild when the next westerly burst ends up and dissipates on our doorstep.
A very encouraging set up for those who enjoy winter proper (after we get through this weekend).
All well and good Chiono, but rather superfluous due to the fact I can't think of one single post across the last week that has suggested the weather is turning mild. The main misconception that actually needs addressing (but is all to conveniently ignored in here) is when someone suggest it might not be as cold as others say, they are not be defination saying it will be mild... you are as aware as the rest of us that other options exist in between.
All to often we see members saying things along the lines of ' I don't see a bitter Easterly developing due to bla, bla bla', but for some strange reason the words written appear to be read as 'I see a mild SW'erly developing due to bla, bla, bla.
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2c in Nome and -12c in Atlanta...talk about topsy turvy!!
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For me the models today have the most potential we have seen all winter. Hoping the 12z's continue that theme
10p in the 'p' box for you ST...
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Which is proabbly why they will be more cautious in their forcasts over the few hours/days
I suspect they have probably been a 'little less cautious' with organisations that pay for their forecast data. Those on the need to know lists will have least been advised, if not warned, but that still doen't make this any more of a done deal yet imo.
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Thats what i was thinking, with all the hype about the cold in here i was expecting better than that! Maye the North East seeing snow but for the most of the UK just cooler rain. Not impressed!
This is the problem and until the MO come on board with this caution will remain the watchword imo.
I'm sure someone will come up with an example, but I'm strugging to remember a time when they we badly wrong with their 6-15 day forecasts across any season. I guess it's more than a tad ironic that whilst this is very much the case, the short term forecast they issued for today after last nights 10pm BBC News was badly innaccurate in timing, extent and intensity of rainfall....you couldn't make it up really!
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Shed, this rain we should of had today has gone into France which saying to me the block is stronger than the models thought, so that can only be a good thing going forward. Yeah.
Cheers Foz.
I see it as far more +ive than -ive Foz as my earlier post suggesed, but the whole set up going forward is still very much knife edge, if not razor edge. Too much emphasis given to one side could result in us having something 'cut off' that we'd rather hold onto...and I'm not talking about a Biscay LP.
Next 48hrs of charts now look critical, the improving trend needs to continue and even gather pace if possible.-
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One or two would be wise to take on board EML's latest post, nothing is guaranteed at this stage, all we can currently say with 100% certainty is the upcoming period repesents the best chance so far this winter of actually seeing some winter...or at least winter as the vast majority in here like to think of it.
The post from Frosty earlier was I'm sure tongue in cheek, but they can and often do raise the expectation bar to levels way above where they should really be, especially given everything currently available to us.
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Come on Shed, admit it, you have one foot and two toes on the harbour (snow) wall... And you're pleasantly enjoying yourself...
Unfortunately been there, seen it, done it and still got the scars to prove it Glenn, so no way am I gonna morph from cold Grinch into Frosty par deux overnight...
Things certainly look more promising, especially when compared with what we have had to endure to date, but until we can be assured the LP will dive SE early next week and finally open the door to some proper cold air I will remain.....let's just say 'relatively hopeful..certainly no more at this stage.
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Next 48hrs of charts now look critical, the improving trend needs to continue and even gather pace if possible.
Siberia set to sizzle...
in Weather Around The World
Posted · Edited by shedhead
With Alaska now firmly back into the freezer the anomolous warmth has transfered into the normally frigid E Siberia.
Temps in Magadan Russia should get above freezing by day, something akin to seeing -20c on the Isles of Scilly, with Oymyakon possibly seeing highs 40c above normal this weekend....or the equivilent of 46c (115f) in London. Truely staggering stuff.