Robbie Garrett

Yes transport systems, supermarkets and hospitals surgeries to be kept open. Once MOD is ready along with the majority of people in the right position will a recommendation to stay at home be issued. One problem in the future we may face next; 4 weeks of delay due to lack of Transatlantic capacity! It coincides with a disruption in sea freight because empty shipping containers are stuck in China. However, UK Government was stockpiling for Brexit, so that may be used.

The Police couldn't cope with the scale in the UK. How much more stockpiling needs to be done? Most people will now not have enough money to buy anymore. Martial-law in this country would be very grey. Hence my feelings Army would need to be drawn in at last resort.

Aches and pain, cough, fever, headache mostly at front, nasal congestion, sore throat and tiredness. Can't remember if I had a shortness of breath though. I would have interacted at work with hundreds of Chinese tourists and my local area has a few thousand residents (students etc).

The country has food-banks the size of multiple football fields. Hence the Army. I've heard things from people in places, and I think plans are under the way. Nothing of doomsday though!

Overnight Monday 13th Jan I got ill. Worst was into 16th January when I quickly got better, bar the pain on my sides (which would have been my diaphragm from coughing?)

Just a thought here. A lot of people are in the general consensus that we are heading for a catastrophe in the UK, but are we? (1) Number of tourists currently in the UK had sheared off, if almost none. The last of which are going home in the next week, thus leaving the chance of rescue flights needed to nil. (2) Number of offices working from home (reliable source most are on Level 4 (WFH), Level 5 is lockdown like Milan) (3) easyJet plan to ground there entire fleet this week. (4) People are panic buying weeks worth (Did the Government know that this is what would happen, thus reducing any stress of having to have the Army work on logistics?) (5) Number of public using Public Transport is hugely down. (6) All flights in/out of UK now are mostly rescue flights or people heading home (thus ensuring a tight seal) (7) Eurostar are cutting services to 1 a day (in about a week) - Currently planned - Coronavirus and Eurostar services | Travel news | Travel information | Eurostar WWW.EUROSTAR.COM (8) Army in preparation to guard supermarkets and hospitals. (9) Last but not least, saying almost all of us will get this (That's one way to lemon a brick?) My point being - Is this the UK Governments tactic to scaremonger people to stay at home (with lots of food) to stop huge disorder on a terrible scale and then implement lockdown? Rather than go all out?

Or at home wondering where to stack 8 x 16 toilet rolls. Absolute tools. Would love to see Army on the streets and scare the living daylights out of some of these people.* *Disclaimer: Obviously not genuine people being scared.

NHS is doing well from what my friend told me. He did say check back in two weeks. And that's from a London Trauma hospital. Maybe our systems are used to being overworked and stressed? Meanwhilst another day travelling in London, another day of filthy people sneezing and coughing without covering. Probably the same tools who stockpile bog role.

Was explained why Paracetamol has run out in Boots today. Makes sense. China produces the raw ingredients > India makes them > India exports them. The first line has gone... As Coronavirus Disrupts Factories, India Curbs Exports of Key Drugs - The New York Times WWW.NYTIMES.COM The outbreak has hobbled Chinese factories that supply India’s vast drug industry with ingredients for antibiotics and vitamins, raising the prospect of global shortages.

Just a thought.

When I went to the doctors in Mid-January I had all the tell-tale signs of a Virus, hence why I was told that's all it was. Dry cough, aches, sinus, mild fever, sneezing, soar throat and then recovered in 3 days. But didn't feel 100% for 2-3 weeks after and had pain in my sides for a week or two. Below is the chart with all the links of the UK strains for Mid-January. I'd say highly likely true as I work with tourists, many of them Chinese and I live with a huge amount of Chinese students who returned 10-15 days prior to me feeling rough.

Having it for 3 days and then feeling somewhat better afterwards is the general consensus isn't it? Maybe this is coming from the Government in order to not induce panic of buying toilet roll and riots in supermarkets? Very tactical if so. This one. Almost 93% confident by Colindale that Covid-19 was in UK shores in Mid-January. auspice NEXTSTRAIN.ORG

I think it's potentially important that there is some underlying science we don't know about that says this has done the rounds in the UK, and is doing the rounds in the thousands. A lot of people are skeptical about the numbers and what China have said. Maybe there's info China has given the UK and what Colindale know about this virus. Im also poitive the weather and low international traffic numbers to the UK has helped. Mostly due to Brexit. (?) Bare in mind London has a direct flight to Wuhan when this was happening (Dec 2019). Then there is every chance that there's a lot of undetected mild cases in the UK since Jan 2019.

3.8% of influenza per 100,000 people end up in ICU in the UK. Roughly 380 people per 100,000. Must mean we have a less deadly strain floating in the UK? With flights going near empty and nothing to Italy/Iran now. This must be why they are going with the science. If 5000-10000 is correct that's an ICU admission far less than flu at 0.2 - 0.4% per 10,000.

In fact if 10,590 positive cases. 0.09% death rate.

10,000 cases he said is likely. So lot less likely than 3.3%

Yes, but are all of them ready to take over the streets. The disorder will be higher than 2011 riots, and what do the Army do with them?

We are currently running at 1.75%. 8 out of 456 cases. Not sure what the percentages are that are in ICU.

How long do you think it takes to get the Army into action? That might be why.

Between 5-10% for every 30,000. Roughly 450. UK Population 66,440,000/30,000 = 2214.66 x 5-10% (450) If every UK person was tested. The case number is likely to be 996,600 - which is why I am 100% sure that there are many thousands, if not close to a million people in the UK with Covid-19 walking scott free with 99% of the population having mild symptoms.

Travelled during the rush hour this morning. Victoria line Northbound at 0750. 1/3 of volume. Might explain why the UK, along with the weather is still in "containment phase" The UK is definitely doing as little to lessen the damage to the economy. Airports are already well deserted. I'm sure the huge drop in % of people in the UK that are out an about and travelling through the borders has made HMG decision a little easier...

Just travelled 1 stop on a commuter train. 10 people cough and or breathing heavily. Thst was a 10 minute journey. It makes you wonder doesnt it. About 5 9f these didnt cover when coughing.

Wet weather and majority of people staying in? I work in Zone 1, it's been dead since Jan 1st. Every weekend it's been windy and a nightmare to travel into London. Just a thought...

It's as simple as this. If the UK does lock-down, the 2011 riots would seem small in comparison. The mass hysteria of buying bog role and 49p paracetamol and pasta can't have filled COBRA with any confidence, let alone the Met Police probably saying; don't even think about it. You would have to put the army on the streets, and in huge numbers. Yes, it brings me back to my point a week ago. Mid-January, roughly 10 days when most of the Chinese Students came back to where I live, I got very poorly. Worst in 6 years by a huge margin and I definitely wasn't as proactively washing my hands and not touching my face back then. Didn't really recover till early February from that. 114,276 recorded cases. If you take the WHO R0, that's 228,552-571,380 that potentially have been infected. Looking at the Covid-19 Worldometer for the UK 4.7 cases for every 1million people. Have a look at this though.

Come to think of it, I did have something before Christmas; I spent the week in bed, and was very lazy - but it felt just like a very strong cold. The thing Mid-January took it out of me, but I was also on Nights. Slept well though. Did you guys have pain on yours sides as well? Breathing was tense for about 2 weeks I'd say. Recovered early February, but the worse was over within 3 days of my fever peaking. Diagnosed by the doctor as a virus. I've seen it dismissed, but where I live in SE17 there's 6-7 blocks of Chinese students that attend the local Universities, along with a fair few living in my block. It's just the timing too, 10 days after I see them return in huge numbers I was sick with the above symptoms. I don't think it's a case of letting it spread, but a case of a few hundred deaths vs billions being wiped of the economy. Sadly waiting for the situation in Italy to happen to the UK is one scenario they've already mentioned, the problem is they feel the NHS is up to it. Or are they just setting it up to fail, just so they can sell it off in the aftermath? I did Business Studies at A Level, and Business Management at degree level. Only 2008 and 1987 have seen greater falls than this, and that worries the Government from taking the next steps. But then the 2010 Ashcloud cost airlines then £10m a day (£14m in today's money). I am sure this already close, hence Flybe tipped over the edge. I'd say Flybe lost £100m+ leading up to recent days, and I wouldn't put it past the likes of BA, easyJet loosing similar. I'd say crippling the NHS (Wuhan-N-Italy Style) is probably more economically damaging than closing airports, borders and "Delaying" the spread by closing all public transport networks. I know Kings College Hospital was full in January, I had a family member wait two days for a bed. If that's true across the UK, then surely the Government must think logistics and prepare for Italy shutdowns or better still, Christmas Day style closures for x number of weeks. Maybe except supermarkets and pharmacies. The Police couldn't deal with a 2011 style riots today, as that's exactly what will happen with the generation we have today. You would have to have the Army on the streets. This in a nutshell is exactly why the shelves in supermarkets are empty and why no matter what efforts the authorities put in place, sadly the virus is well and truly out the bag and unstoppable in the UK. 23,500 cases (maybe slightly less) have called 111 or there GP with symptoms of Covid-19 and 1.16% have returned as positive. With a R0 of 2-5, there's going to be likely 546-1365 cases over the next few days.