Robbie Garrett

Well here is something of interest. It was literally just issued. TOPS of FL420, that's pretty much on par with some of the stuff experienced in Central Africa and the Gulf. Incredible! Stregnth - Intensifying Moving NNE. WSFR31 LFPW 251609 LFFF SIGMET 3 VALID 251600/251800 LFPW- LFFF PARIS FIR/UIR FRQ TSGR FCST WI N5015 E00000 - N5045 E00100 - N4930 E00130 - N4915 E00030 - N5015 E00000 TOP FL420 STNR INTSF=

37.7 °C has been recorded at Kew Gardens and Writtle, Essex. My money is on these two doing 38.7°C.

UKMO Just posted this on twitter!

In terms of locations that have no cloud at the moment. There's definitely an area of likely hood. Windy is awesome by the way!

Heathrow has just broke the July Record at 36.9°C.

I wonder what the chances are of multiple stations breaking the UK record. That in itself would be more interesting.

35°c at London City Airport and Heathrow Airport. Cambridge Airport at 36°c

You literally are not far off. These storms are moving at 45-50knots (51-58mph) and with tops of FL380.

Nevermind that, who's the Netweather Members camping on the beach haha!

I managed to get a good fly through those cells before they became very active. They tracked from Elstree along towards Essex, literally no turbulence and was smooth as anything. The cell after this lot though became a Heavy TSRA and was pretty bumpy that I had route further away from it.

Gatwick is en-route holding. But currently clearing. Seems clearer to the south of the extended centerline now according to one inbound. Presumably something building NNE of Gatwick that they are flying through.

In terms of a debrief, I think the English Channel has something to play here and has done for the last 20 years. I wish I had of print screened it but the MetOffice app was showing the rain 30-40 miles west of where it currently is. Maybe more. I wonder if it's the warmer sea surface temperatures vs last millennia. Presumably in the 90s, the cooler channel would feed the storms whereas today the temperature gradient is different and thus the winds are slightly different as a result. I say this because when we have a strong easterly we get Snow CBs. The air aloft is cooler than the SSTs whereas in the Summer the plume is warmer. So you'll have a strong gradient between sea and air aloft. I know that the warmer SSTs in the tropics feed the cells. But they are FL500+ whereas the UK rarely sees FL340+ due to the tropopause, but they are different beasts in nature. What was the SSTs of the Channel between 1990-1999 and 2000-2010 and 2011 and 2019? Because this local variation of change means the winds are different and obviously less conductive to imports. Its obviously a fraction of degree difference or something that's stopping these imports from what the models predict to reality. Even up to 1/2 hours out. Thoughts?

Can Supercells multi cluster into an MCS or is this most likely in the ITCZ?

ETA London, about 4am?

I'm on a 6pm-4am night shift tonight. Will hope the best action is at 4am, as it will be daylight and I'll walk across London Bridge with the city as a backdrop or The Shard. Will be radar watching for sure.

I presume it's the intensity of said storms. It's very rare to get FL300/FL350 tops here in the UK. The tropopause sits normally at FL280-FL330 It's maybe something to do with the fact that it's either unusually high or the storms are busting through it. I've known of a cell that once blocked a BA Nairobi-London flight from coming in via Southampton, but instead had to route via Dover in via Lambourne (Epping forrest) due to the shear size. Something like FL580/FL600. 60,000ft tops.

Doesn't look like anything like a multi-cell that we crave but more rather isolated imports. Issued: 11:02 (UTC+1) on Fri 21 Jun 2019 Thunderstorms are expected across parts of England and Wales at times on Tuesday. Storms are likely to spread north from France early in the day, before developing more widely later. Whilst some places may miss storms altogether, where they do develop 20-30 mm of rain could fall in one hour, with a few spots perhaps seeing as much as 40-60 mm in one hour, which is very unusual for the UK. Large hail, lightning and gusty winds are also likely.

I like this Scenario for next week...

Pretty silent at the moment thus far.

Quick one from me. MetOffice weather warning bang on. Exact details would always be hard to pin. But the latest Synoptics from 0100-1300 paint the picture and direction. Radar paints that its associated with the direction of the trough. White lines not accurate but I'd say it pinpoints an area of interest. SIGMET & AIRMET states its moving at 25KT to NE. I'm interested to see what the cold front does and how much energy is interjected into the core.

Talking of wettest months and miserable Summers. Here's 2007, 2012 and 2019 (so far) for rainfall amounts for Heathrow, EGLL. I've included 2018 for comparison. It will take a lot for the 2007/2012 June's to be beaten, I'd say 2007 is easily reached, but 2012 will be harder. Source MetOffice weather historical data!

Personally when I was younger, I don't really remember much in the way of individual small thunderstorms but more so intense night-time storms. There was one big one late October in the 90s, there was a few huge overnight storms with the curtains rattling in the wind before huge electrical shows across London in the Summer. Not sure if anyone remembers the Brixton Market Bomb in Iceland? I was 7 at that point, and I remember Thunder and lightning all that evening. I was so scared by the Thunder, when that bomb went off I hid under the bed. The decline I think is down to the strength of the jetstream, the way high pressure forms across the Nern Hemisphere and this means that we always fall foul to a lack of imports. Last May was probably the closest we got too what I experienced as a child. But it was not even as intense as I remember. In fact I can't remember a day where there's been extreme heat followed by evening to morning Thunderstorms since early 2000s.

Belts on till leaving the South East I reckon. Like crew strapped in for the majority of the departure up and until the cruise.

I bet, they always do really well. I just think it's the angle of the weather now; the way the natural systems flow across the earth.

A line from Den Helder to Mons across BENELUX is doing well. Nothing new then... Nice active cell west of Brussels.