Robbie Garrett

Interesting jet profile too, need to get that into the more reliable timeframe.

I suspect Dec 2019 will follow Dec 2009, Jan 2020 (Ala 2010 will be interestingly.) There's something in the background that the models are picking up.

There's one thing that strikes me on the latest MO updates, and they've put one interesting caveat on it. "Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains low." Either way, interesting pattern building next week. The jet seems to be pivoting under the high over Europe, and surely that's what you want? Be interested to see if the models can get to grips with that Afghan/Euro High.

I believe this is the discussion from NOAA/NHC. "It is likely that cold upper-level temperatures have allowed the cyclone to maintain deep convection and lead to the formation of a warm core, while Pablo continued strengthening over cool water temperatures where tropical cyclones normally weaken. Still, the current SSTs underneath Pablo are so far below those usually needed for tropical development, that Pablo must be incredibly efficient at extracting heat from the ocean surface below (as well as low-level surrounding air, probably)."

5.2C and 110mm

Bit of a Squall just passed through Zone 1 in London.

Yes I saw a bit of rotation, I wonder if Reefseeker saw the same?

Massive thunderous cell over London, with aircraft still flying through it. Literally.

Looking like a busy few weeks coming up!

I'm curious does a stalling hurricane weaken due to lack of energy or if conditions are perfect. It will sit over that source all day long?

A fair bit of activity now, huge system moved south of Cape Verde. 80% in next 5 days.

Its travelling too fast for any mounts. I see they have one on the top of the flight deck panel. Impressive equipment that's for sure. Unreal footage. Best to watch it all.

That's some pretty big balls! Unreal flying. https://www.dvidshub.net/video/706072/us-air-force-reserve-hurricane-hunters-fly-through-hurricane-dorian

Yeah that is mental in itself. It's all possible, another GSM coming up.

As a qualified pilot, that's some roller coaster. Imagine having to do it multiple times per day - presumably they get used to it. Wouldn't want to sit in the back of that aircraft!

^^^^

I've been doing some nights (finishing at 4am) and the daylight is really drawing to a close. But I seem to remember how quick winter went, and it was soon June 21st. This winter will probably not be any different, although I suspect we might be in for something more seasonable Nov-Jan, and I don't mean snow. But we are well overdue a wet and wild period.

Coldest place on Earth, the eye of Hurricane Dorian.

Like so?

A very weak affair though IMHO ^

Just had lightning looking West of London light up the sky. Caught my eye.

Thatll be verified via satellite before that's issued too. Some will be weather reports from satcom enabled aircraft.

Yes. FL = Flight Level on a standard pressure of 1013hPa. So roughly 42,000ft or about 8miles.

https://www.aviationweather.gov/sigmet