AutumnMists

Still very mild! Very pleasant, but also very 'un'festive Anyway, I'm not going to be naughty this time, lets hope for some sun Overcast forecast for tomorrow, not rain, a good sign.

At least the rain at the moment means Oldham Council don't have to grit the roads on top of their already busy work schedule. (Sarcasm)

GFS continues to show at least some sort of cold around the first week of the new year. A bit of week consistency but temperatures each run have certainly been below 6'C, the latest run shows a high of 3'C on the 5th of January. Anyway, Oldham seems to be magically and mysteriously avoiding the rain; for now; as of Midnight. I'm sure like always the noise of rain crashing on my skylight windows will wake me up before dawn!

A similar forecast for Oldham; Although I do think it is pretty accurate perhaps at the moment, apart from maybe the forecast for Christmas Eve which appears to disagree with the Met office by some 3'C. I think the rain/snow forecast for the 28th and the 29th is certainly plausible though; especially over the hills.

I feel the cold but it doesn't really hurt or anything

Don't think we can ever get a day in Oldham without just one drop of rain!

Well tomorrow is the shortest day, Thursday will be longer than today! Doesn't seem long ago since the Summer solstice, although happily we may see a demise of Daylight Savings time next February or whenever it is next year. (Mind, they say that every single year and nothing ever happens!)

I would expect something more like February 2009 or something like that as apposed to December 2011 or January 2010 if we were to get anything. Oh and just for fun, the famous winter of 1946/1947 saw the heavy snow arrive until way way into January (22nd), so it might not all be bad news Realistically though as you said still plenty of time for change as we go into the New Year, especially February and even March (or April as 2008 kindly gave us)

The hills are now green as well now

Totally agree; I understand what your saying about next week though, possibly a few cold days to ponder about although models have shown some consistency for 26th-31st being around average, some days a touch cooler, some a touch milder. Possibly the odd sweet light dusting I suppose.

Mehh, and the rain resumes. Looks like intensifying in the early hours. Going to the lovely Middle East next week and returning on the 2nd; could I return to a perhaps a short but couple of days of cold? GFS shows slight bias towards cooler than average conditions within the first week of January I think if it is anything to go by, we will see a typical '1990's/2000's' type cold snap, with a thin cover lasting a couple of days. On a more shorter range note, that is now it as far as the below zero temperatures go until at least the New Year, at least for us in the North West anyway

Its been a horrible day here in Oldham. Still patchy snow cover, and quite a thick cover on the Pennines Double figures on Wednesday and Thursday and maybe Friday with nothing wintry all week apart from a possible widespread frost for many Eastern parts of the North West on Friday Night and Christmas Eve Merry Christmas to you too, fellow Saddleworth resident.

Yes, i suppose so, although three consecutive cold winters has happened before, followed by a mild or average one. This has happened many times, but i don't know, like you said, that was then and this is now.

Can we trust historical data for weather forecasting? The concept of another 'cold' or 'below average' winter seems to be talked upon a lot over the last few days, however historical data would appear to go strongly against the concept of a fourth consecutive cold winter in a row. Can we trust historical data? Or can sunspot measures and charts and graphs that we have these days prove it to be wrong?