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garbagebags

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Everything posted by garbagebags

  1. garbagebags
    When I look at the current ECM its saying 25th Nov 12z still?
  2. garbagebags
    When does the ECM update to 00z? The UKMO 00z run today is even better than the 12z yesterday so they deffinately are following the ECM. Will be very interesting to what the latest ECM has in store.
  3. garbagebags
    Isn't that what you have just done?
  4. garbagebags
    Yup 18z is still good. FAX has come back in line with the GFS now too. Only the ECM being a weirdo now. Lets see if it toes the line in the morning.
  5. garbagebags
    emm....Doesn't Fantasy Land make more sense than Fantasy Island?
  6. garbagebags
    I thought it stood for Fantasy Land?
  7. garbagebags
    I wouldnt call 7 days FL. OK its not a dead cert but its not Fantasy.
  8. garbagebags
    According to the GFS, Long and very!
  9. garbagebags
    As far as I'm concerned its defo happening. The details ironed out but its deffinately on the cards now. The GFS has been runnning this since way way out.
  10. garbagebags
    The gfs just went for a full model run of cold. Lol badass.
  11. garbagebags
    Eh? We had feet and feet of snow in Glasgow.
  12. garbagebags
    Would I be right in thinking that the "default" for the PV is that it "wants to be" a nice tight circle around the Arctic and only when it is poked and prodded by high pressures does it "bulge" out? A bit like a water balloon. And then it trys to spring back? Would that be right?
  13. garbagebags
    Should I be worried that the end of the GFS run is showing the PV restructuring into a nice tight ball, ala Zonal. Or is it so far in Fl that its not true?
  14. garbagebags
    I would imagine to get 20 degrees on 25th Dec you would need gale force winds coming straight up all the way from africa. As gale force winds only occur due to low pressure systems you wouldn't get those straight line winds straight from africa. My guess is it isn't possible?
  15. garbagebags
    AO is (currently) forecasted for a HUUGE tank.
  16. garbagebags
    Can you explain to me what a wavebreak feedback is?
  17. garbagebags
    So you would say they are entirely accurate? right out to 384 hours? and we should believe every run and chart they give us? I think they are incredibly "dodgy". Yes its the best we have got but its still mostly guess work passed 3 or 4 days.
  18. garbagebags
    Come on guys, too much negativity about the whole winter after a couple of dodgy and far out model runs. Think about all the build up to winter most have been saying how good it looks, (sea temps, snow cover) etc etc. Don't let a few dodgy models make you think the winter is a write off.
  19. garbagebags
    Not expecting a week on week disruption, just concerned about the apparent strength of the PV. It looks solid. Maybe very hard to break down. ergo might not happen at all? I think at this stage only a SSW would do it.
  20. garbagebags
    Seems that the 06z is saying "I see highs forming in the right places but the PV is just so strong they cant disrupt it" That might tie in with the super cold Strat. I think its all really on whether we get a SSW or not now
  21. garbagebags
    To say to 06z has backed away from cold would be an understatement.
  22. garbagebags
    Are you not both posting in the wrong thread??
  23. garbagebags
    Im almost certain I read this last year also?
  24. garbagebags
    Ah sorry I've just got to grips with what this thread is all about!
  25. garbagebags
    Im guessing thats due to the -NAO and cold in October...
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