garbagebags

I would say that question lies with if the Strat is willing to play ball or not, it looks like its the deciding factor between colder interludes and real locked down cold.

Thats a great Analogy mate. Thanks.

I would like to make a statement and then people can tell me if its right or wrong. I'm thinking this winter will be anything from "normal" to "very cold" My feelings are that everything is in place (sea temps, snow cover etc etc) However the Strat and solar activity aint quite playing ball. So I recon, if solar activity jumps and the strat stays cold we will see a "normal" winter, whereas If sun spots dissapear and the strat goes SSW then we could see a very cold winter. Or depending on the sun and strat, anywhere in between. Does this make any real sense? I know most say sun spots have a lag time but looking at previous years it doesn't really seem like they do (also any solar flares only take 7 hours to reach us) maybe people say there is a lag time to ramp cold when there is increased solar activity? Im still learning so would love to know if any of this makes sense because thats kind of the way I see this winter panning out in my head.

I honestly have no idea, I kind of guessed that they were separate as aren't they more likely "trends" of a likely change in the PV rather than a data induced model of where things will be? No idea though.

Models are keen for "something" towards the end of the month but have no idea what. I think this will be 90% down to the NAO/AO forecast and not that they are actually "seeing" anything yet?

Who on earth is GP !?

Need I say any more?

The 00z this morning make appalling viewing

No, no I don't think they are. "Most" people are saying it might be a colder to slightly colder than average winter. 62/63 was Exceptionally and record breaking cold.

BLOCK anyone?

Ok so nothing a layman like me can understand then lol! Is there some easy graph I can keep a watch on to see if the strat suddenly warms? thanks guys

Can anyone tell me what causes the polar strat to suddenly and "randomly" warm? Is there something we can be watching that is a trigger for the warming of the strat?

Am I right in thinking everything is in place for a -NAO/AO and blocked cold winter EXCEPT the strat temperatures? And could someone tell me, what causes the Strat to suddenly warm?

That is all.

I agree, I want cold and snow as much as the next snow lover but I do NOT want a 62/63 style winter. People don't realise just how brutal that winter was, it was not enjoyable. It can be cold and snowy all winter without being as damn harsh as 62/63. That would just cause untold problems for everyone. Id happily take 3 months of snow and -1 rather than days of -15 such as 62/63. Be very careful what you wish for!

I'm going with you vogan. I think the NAO will flip pos through November and neg halfway through Dec.

Snow reflects sunlight yes, but it's also a fantastic insulator, so doesn't tend to get as cold as bare ground. So although it helps in getting temps down, it doesnt help to the degree you might think.

my god, thats a frightning model. Even as a cold lover, that is extreeeeeme

cold snap then? Its a cold snap now! de-iced the car this morning

Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't low sea ice mean, warmer Arctic air rising, therefore warmer Strat, therefore more chance of -NAO -AO and harsh UK winters?

Oh we are used to it

All this expertise is fascinating! I would be very grateful if you told me, whats the "best setup or system" for snow to the Glasgow area?

Only by looking at the past can we make sense of the future

thanks, I don't really know what I'm on about lol. New to all this, But as an uneducated guess, I would have assumed that a hurricane type low pressure event but thats come from the north Pole and slammed into us would be the most extreme? Plenty cold and full of moisture

Even if it came from all the way up there?