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garbagebags

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Everything posted by garbagebags

  1. garbagebags
    Bit of a left field question here, but do the guys who program the ECM talk to those who program the GFS and so on?
  2. garbagebags
    Its crazy the amount of options at 96!
  3. garbagebags
    Every other day I would have the MET but I think the GFS is right here..
  4. garbagebags
    Not at all, the low tracks further south. Its not enough granted but its deffinately a "better" run.
  5. garbagebags
    One thing is for sure, when we do find out what's going on either the ECM or the GFS will be getting kicked firmly to the kerb for the rest of winter.
  6. garbagebags
    Ok, so being open minded and sensible we shouldn't attack the GFS as maybe it is right and has seen this shortwave correctly. So where does that leave the ECM? Is it that blind?!
  7. garbagebags
    I think that there is some smoke and comedy sparks coming out of the back of the GFS super computer.
  8. garbagebags
    Whatever the outcome of next week, when people in the future ask me "what the best model ECM or GFS?" for the first time I'm going to have a definitive answer for them! One is getting crowned and the other ridiculed.
  9. garbagebags
    I'll buy a t shirt that says I luv gfs fu ecm
  10. garbagebags
    Frankly hilarious that 7 days out the ECM has got temps of -10 and the gfs has temps of plus 10. Is that the best we can do in 2013 seriously???
  11. garbagebags
    I think you should have another look
  12. garbagebags
    Is it strnge that the GFS see these shortwaves and the other models dont? Much better fight from the GFS but still needs work to win the fight
  13. garbagebags
    Very simple (if slightly OT) question. Are the models more reliable in summer or is it the same?
  14. garbagebags
    Im not so sure, I dont think a "halfway house" here is an option. We are either blocked and protected from this apparent shortwave or we are not. Its going to be cold or mild in my eyes.
  15. garbagebags
    Can somebody tell me, with regards to models, as there is so many ensemble lines, how does the operational or control, or the pretty maps we see actually get chosen? I assumed that the charts we view would be bang on the "mean" of all the models ensembles but this doesnt seem to be the case?
  16. garbagebags
    It does unfortunately apear to be more substantial than just a "blip" or "wobble". However, Im still taking comfort in the other models.
  17. garbagebags
    If im not mistaken despite all the excitement over it does a SSW not statistically actually make mean UK ground temps go UP? im sure ive seen that posted a few times (and quickly swept under the carpet)
  18. garbagebags
    Historically speaking what are the % chances of shortwaves being downgraded vs being deepened, once they have been picked up?
  19. garbagebags
    My concern is not that the GFS has downgraded (that was always going to happen after a "perfect" run). Its the way its downgrading it doesn't look like a "blip" or a "wobble" it looks like a steady upgrading of the shortwave and to be honest I believe it and its very worrying. I say game over for next week, "pest from the west". Would appear there is no such thing as a "block" anymore... anyway, heres hoping I'm wrong.
  20. garbagebags
    They run FI every run and lets be honest, thats as good as useless. And look at the CFS for goodness sake.
  21. garbagebags
    Where is the first place to post new models? Wetter still not got the 86 out
  22. garbagebags
    Forgive my ignorance but could the big ensemble scatter fairly early on be down to possible effects or "unknown effects" of the SSW? might the models be struggling with it?
  23. garbagebags
    True, but in fairness the ECM is famous for being the last to catch on to a serious cold spell..time will tell
  24. garbagebags
    With ANOTHER great GFS run, what are peoples opinions on what the ECM will do on its 12z? And if it sticks with the toppler who on earth do we think to believe??
  25. garbagebags
    I think the MET only use their own data and models dont they?
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