garbagebags

What would qualify for an Indian summer? Mid to High teens? I remember a couple of years ago it was 16 degrees on Boxing day. That was weird. (If anyone could find me that chart I would be very happy, I remember it was very blowy too) This must have been it -

Is it too late for the term "Indian summer?" Im genuinely curious?

I don't see how this is a failed northerly? Sure i'ts downgraded but its still a stonking northerly bringing -10! uppers over a lot of the country and even -12 uppers over scotland. There could well be blizzards and heavy snow drifting in the north. How is this a "failed northerly"? Definitely a Northerly. And a biting one at that.

Precisely. I just think that, at this stage, this easterly chat would be better suited to the ramping thread as the chance of it coming of are....well..... Of course I don't run this site and that is only my opinion but if a "newbie" was to stumble across this page they very well could assume that this easterly is happening the way some people are going on.

I'm yet to see this Easterly that everyone else seems to be seeing?? After Sat all I see is a high pressure over the UK and average to above average temps. Even that stretches to the end of FI. Maybe we best stick to the facts here, and not set-ups that aren't even shown, yet alone in the reliable.

Agreed. There is still a lot to cement. I mean, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that it could upgrade every run from now and be an actual stonker of a Northerly, for many many days. Blanketing the country in snow. Alas, people seem to prefer talking about easterlies that aren't even being shown in the deepest realms of FI.

Just strange because the coming Northerly is far from "set" It could upgrade, downgrade, last, not last, it could even go the way of "that ECM" and dissapear. Would just be nice to have more model chat with "weather that's likely" rather than "weather that's liked".

Well I've just looked and I don't see an easterly, not even in FI. Maybe, just maybe, the slightest hints of it heading possibly that way maybe, in the very last frame of FI...Hardly even worth talking about. I just always see the same. People obsessed with easterlies / FI and not about the next "real" event.

This entire page, all talk about a potential easterly out in FI. And nothing on the mid term - very cold northerly,Why do people do this? -the previous page

Ive got a feeling this evenings ECM will be make or break. It will either push the high east (in which case i expect more downgrades from all the models in the days to come). Or it will hold fast. Meaning there is all to play for.

1 in a million would mean a polar low once every 11 thousand winters? (assuming every day in winter is 1 chance).

So many people, always going on about wishing for a scandi high. You do realise its not nearly cold enough to get any fun and games from a scandi yet?The only event that would be productive at this stage in the game would be a northerly or derivative thereof. An easterly would simply not be cold right now. The East isn't cold enough.

Next weekends "cold snap" looking good... via Imgflip GIF Maker Anyone up for a BBQ??

Is there a model thread where people dont only talk about FI ? Seems the only thing people here look at. Might just as well head over to maddens page. Lets have some chat about the reasonable charts?

18z looks mighty flat Seems to be showing a very brief cold brought on only by the low, rather than any Atlantic ridging. Hope the ridging increases but the GFS has seemingly been overcooking Atlantic highs so far this season. Only to dowgrade them later. I see heavy rain followed by freezing temps. Much like the other week.

Yes but not just any event, potentially a blizzard event dumping feet of snow. Hardly something to just dismiss offhand.

I think we really need to be looking towards next weekend for any kind of cold. People talking about "cold snap" next week. But to be honest the -5 line is hardly even making scotland. I don't consider that a cold snap at all.

I don't buy the 06z. I wish I did but I don't. I mean that low at +114 shooting across the Atlantic, where has that suddenly come from?? I bet that has dissapeared in the 12z.

Out in FI but this is a punishingly cold and snowy chart.

Something I found a bit interesting here. This is the model output for the GFS 8 days ago for Wednesday. And this is it today Now sure, it's not identical, but it does have the same features in the same places, all be it downgraded. Bear in mind that first chart was out in FI when I saved it a week back Sunday. Fluke or actual prediction?

How would a low pressure system (storm) heading towards Greenland help blocking? Surely low pressure is the last thing you want in the Atlantic, southern Greenland?

The fax charts are not identical to the UKMO runs. Senior forecasters take the UKMO chart along with any other data the feel is relevant to make the fax charts. They are the only "human" generated charts and are widely seen as "the best". 100's of marinas and thousands of sailors around the UK are sent the fax charts daily to use as reliable weather forecasting. People wouldnt risk their lives on the whim of the gfs or ecm.

Forgive me if this is the wrong place to post but I see a lot of excitement in the models of a potential future Scandi high and Easterly (Even more excitement for that than a greenland high) But am I not right in thinking that an easterly, at this time of year, with the continent the temperature it is, would this do nothing for us in terms of cold and snow? I would think you wouldn't see any snow below mountain tops as the uppers would struggle to get below 0. Surely a Northerly (at this stage) would be much better?

Problem is, (well for me anyway). I am pretty sure I'm veiwing the models neutrally. But when for the best part of a week its saying next week will be a freezer. All models agreeing, all runs agreeing. Then suddenly BANG, 4 massive downgrades in a row. It's difficult not to get disappointed. Nothing to do with rose tinted glasses. The models said what they said and then massively downgraded.

But thats what makes the GFS so much fun and (deep down) everyones favourite model. Imagine how boring it would be on here with only a steady, level headed, models going to 120 or 144. Nah not for me. I love the drunkard, slightly mentally unhinged but sometime brilliant Nostradamous character that is, the GFS.